Austin FC vs Nashville SC prediction: Nashville SC to win 0-1 as model gives 54.6% chance
MLS sees Austin FC face Nashville SC at Q2 Stadium. The model makes Nashville SC the favourite, assigning a slight 54.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Austin FC 21.2%, draw 24.2%, Nashville SC 54.6%.
Austin FC have generated 1.30 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Nashville SC average 1.95 scored (1.21x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.90 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Austin FC and 1.7 for Nashville SC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-1, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Nashville SC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 54.6% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Messi scores, but Nashville strikes late to deny Miami win — Lionel Messi scored a second-half goal, but Nashville SC struck back in stoppage time to earn a 2-2 draw at Inter Miami and maintain its nine-point lead at the top of the Eastern Conference. (ESPN, 2026-09-13)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- MLS Power Rankings: Nashville continue top, Miami bounce back — Lionel Messi's four goals put Miami back on track, while Nashville continue to dominate. All that and more in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)