Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: Colorado Rapids to win 2-1 as model gives 48.2% chance
MLS sees Colorado Rapids face San Jose Earthquakes at Dick's Sporting Goods Park. The model makes Colorado Rapids the favourite, assigning a slight 48.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Colorado Rapids 48.2%, draw 24.7%, San Jose Earthquakes 27.1%.
Colorado Rapids have generated 1.29 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.42 conceded per game. San Jose Earthquakes average 1.66 scored (1.03x average) and are a steady defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Colorado Rapids and 1.3 for San Jose Earthquakes.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (58.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Colorado Rapids to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Israel's Abu Farchi red-carded for goal celebration — Israel player Sayed Abu Farchi was sent off for his goal-scoring celebration after equalizing against Austria in the Nations League on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- MLS Power Rankings: Nashville continue top, Miami bounce back — Lionel Messi's four goals put Miami back on track, while Nashville continue to dominate. All that and more in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-08-31)