Chicago Fire FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction: Philadelphia Union to win 1-2 as model gives 40.5% chance
MLS sees Chicago Fire FC face Philadelphia Union at Soldier Field. The model makes Philadelphia Union the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Chicago Fire FC 33%, draw 26.5%, Philadelphia Union 40.5%.
Chicago Fire FC have generated 1.80 goals per game (1.12x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.58 conceded per game. Philadelphia Union average 2.36 scored (1.47x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.43 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Chicago Fire FC and 2.1 for Philadelphia Union.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.4%), and both teams are likely to score (73.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Philadelphia Union to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.5% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Philadelphia Union, USMNT's Cavan Sullivan becomes youngest MLS Player of the Month — Philadelphia Union and USMNT midfielder Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player in MLS history to be named Player of the Month on Wednesday when he was awarded the honors for September. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- Five stats: Why USMNT should be excited about Cavan Sullivan — Is the hype around Cavan Sullivan's USMNT future too much? No, it's actually not enough -- and here are five reasons why. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- Sullivan, 16, starts for USMNT; youngest to earn cap since Adu in '06 — Sixteen-year-old Cavan Sullivan became the youngest player to start a game for the United States since Freddy Adu in 2006 when he was picked in Mauricio Pochettino's XI on Saturday for a friendly against Peru. (ESPN, 2026-09-27)
- Mauricio Pochettino: Cavan Sullivan ready for USMNT debut — USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino said 16-year-old phenom Cavan Sullivan is ready to play for the USMNT during the current international window, but was non-committal as to what role he would play in Saturday's friendly against Peru. (ESPN, 2026-09-26)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)