Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: San Jose Earthquakes to win 1-2 as model gives 40.4% chance
MLS sees Real Salt Lake face San Jose Earthquakes at America First Field. The model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Real Salt Lake 33.3%, draw 26.3%, San Jose Earthquakes 40.4%.
Real Salt Lake have generated 1.29 goals per game (0.81x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.71 conceded per game. San Jose Earthquakes average 1.66 scored (1.03x average) and are a steady defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Real Salt Lake and 1.6 for San Jose Earthquakes.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.8%), and both teams are likely to score (63.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: San Jose Earthquakes to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- MLS Power Rankings: No Cavan? No problem for surging Philadelphia — Philadelphia lost three star youngsters to international duty, yet the Union continued their march toward the top of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-28)
- MLS Power Rankings: Union skyrocket as unbeaten streak reaches 11 games — Can anyone stop the Philadelphia Union? Their latest win powered them up the charts in this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-21)
- USMNT, RSL midfielder Diego Luna (knee) set to be out for months — Real Salt Lake and U.S. midfielder Diego Luna is expected to be out for months and will likely undergo an arthroscopic procedure to determine the extent of a knee injury, sources confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-09-15)
- MLS Power Rankings: Chicago's slide continues as Nashville cements top spot — The Chicago Fire haven't tasted victory in more than three weeks, precipitating a slide down this week's edition of ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)
- Luna, Musah and the USMNT's fringe players hoping for a bigger role in 2030 — The U.S. is brimming with 20-somethings full of potential, and while this quintet missed this year's World Cup, they may get another chance in 2030. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- MLS Power Rankings: Griezmann catapults Orlando into the playoff picture — With eight goal contributions in eight games since joining the Lions, Antoine Griezmann has turned around Orlando's season. That and more in ESPN's MLS Power Rankings. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)