Red Star FC 93 vs Saint-Étienne prediction: Saint-Étienne to win 1-2 as model gives 43.4% chance
Ligue 2 sees Red Star FC 93 face Saint-Étienne at Stade Bauer. The model makes Saint-Étienne the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Red Star FC 93 30.3%, draw 26.3%, Saint-Étienne 43.4%.
Red Star FC 93 have generated 1.50 goals per game (1.15x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Saint-Étienne average 2.12 scored (1.63x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.03 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Red Star FC 93 and 1.7 for Saint-Étienne.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.2%), and both teams are likely to score (61.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Saint-Étienne to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.4% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.