Draw predictions today
A typical football match ends level about one time in four. These are the games where the model rates a draw above that, usually two evenly matched sides who do not score many goals. The most likely draws are listed first.
Our record on this market: 25 correct out of 62 settled matches (40%). Every pick is published before kick-off and checked against the final score.
Strongest picks
| Match | Competition | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Union St.-Gilloise v Real Sociedad Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Draw 36.6% |
| Real Betis v FC Porto Wed 14 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Champions League | Draw 33.1% |
| RB Salzburg v AC Milan Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Draw 32.8% |
| AC Horsens v Randers FC Fri 16 Oct, 17:00 UTC | Danish Superliga | Draw 32.8% |
| Annecy v AS Nancy Lorraine Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Ligue 2 | Draw 32.1% |
| CSU Craiova v Getafe Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Conference League | Draw 30.5% |
All Draw predictions, next four days
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | Competition | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday 14 October | |||
| 19:00 | Real Betis v FC Porto | Champions League | Draw 33.1% |
| Thursday 15 October | |||
| 13:40 | Al Faisaly v Al Kholood | Saudi Pro League | Draw 28.4% |
| 15:15 | Al Hazem v Al Fateh | Saudi Pro League | Draw 30.4% |
| 16:45 | RB Salzburg v AC Milan | Europa League | Draw 32.8% |
| 16:45 | Union St.-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | Europa League | Draw 36.6% |
| 16:45 | CSU Craiova v Getafe | Conference League | Draw 30.5% |
| 16:45 | Egnatia v FC Midtjylland | Conference League | Draw 29.2% |
| 16:45 | Riga FC v Kairat Almaty | Conference League | Draw 28.6% |
| 18:00 | Al Ahli v Al Nassr | Saudi Pro League | Draw 28.9% |
| 19:00 | Ferencvaros v Viktoria Plzen | Europa League | Draw 28.3% |
| 19:00 | F.C. København v Braga | Conference League | Draw 30.2% |
| 23:00 | Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | Liga Profesional | Draw 29% |
| Friday 16 October | |||
| 09:00 | Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League Men | Draw 29.9% |
| 17:00 | Çorum FK v Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | Draw 28.6% |
| 17:00 | AC Horsens v Randers FC | Danish Superliga | Draw 32.8% |
| 18:00 | Annecy v AS Nancy Lorraine | Ligue 2 | Draw 32.1% |
| 18:00 | Grenoble v Boulogne | Ligue 2 | Draw 29.5% |
| 18:45 | Frosinone v Sassuolo | Serie A | Draw 29.6% |
| 18:45 | Le Mans v Toulouse | Ligue 1 | Draw 30% |
| 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto (Córdoba) | Liga Profesional | Draw 29.6% |
| Saturday 17 October | |||
| 04:00 | Auckland FC v Melbourne City FC | A-League Men | Draw 30.2% |
| 06:00 | Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League | Draw 30.3% |
| 07:00 | Mito Hollyhock v Urawa Red Diamonds | J1 League | Draw 28% |
| 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | Premier League | Draw 29.9% |
| 11:30 | Fleetwood Town v Rotherham United | League Two | Draw 28.3% |
| 11:30 | Shrewsbury Town v Bristol Rovers | League Two | Draw 28% |
| 13:00 | Benevento v Vicenza | Serie B | Draw 30% |
| 13:00 | Amed SFK v Konyaspor | Super Lig | Draw 28.4% |
| 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | Premier League | Draw 28.6% |
| 14:00 | Swindon Town v Walsall | League Two | Draw 28.8% |
| 14:00 | St Johnstone v Dundee United | Scottish Premiership | Draw 29.5% |
| 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos NFC | Greek Super League | Draw 29% |
| 14:15 | Eibar v Mallorca | LaLiga 2 | Draw 28% |
| 15:15 | Mantova v Palermo | Serie B | Draw 28.1% |
| 17:30 | Pisa v Cremonese | Serie B | Draw 28.5% |
| 17:30 | SV Josko Ried v Austria Vienna | Austrian Bundesliga | Draw 29% |
| 19:00 | Valencia v Athletic Club | La Liga | Draw 29.2% |
How these predictions are made
We estimate expected goals for both teams from their recent attacking and defensive record, adjusted for home advantage, and blend in Elo ratings and bookmaker prices where available. A Dixon-Coles goals model then gives the chance of every scoreline, with a correction for how often 0-0 and 1-1 really happen. The draw figure is the total of the level scorelines.
Questions
What makes a match likely to end in a draw?
Two teams of similar strength and a low expected goal total. The fewer goals a game is likely to have, the more often it finishes level.
How often do draw predictions come in?
Even the likeliest draws rarely pass 35%, so most of them will not land. Our settled record for these matches is shown at the top of the page.
Which scoreline is the most common draw?
1-1 in most leagues, followed by 0-0. Each match page lists its most likely exact scores.
Other markets
BTTS predictions · Over 2.5 goals predictions · Correct score predictions · Over 1.5 goals predictions · All football predictions · Full track record