Las Palmas vs Castellón prediction: Castellón to win 1-2 as model gives 55.6% chance
LaLiga 2 sees Las Palmas face Castellón at Estadio Gran Canaria. The model makes Castellón the favourite, assigning a slight 55.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Las Palmas 17.4%, draw 27%, Castellón 55.6%.
Las Palmas have generated 1.40 goals per game (1.04x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.44 conceded per game. Castellón average 1.68 scored (1.25x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.95 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Las Palmas and 1.6 for Castellón.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (55.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Castellón to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 55.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.