Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli prediction: St. Pauli to win 0-1 as model gives 37.1% chance
2. Bundesliga sees Hannover 96 face St. Pauli at HDI Arena. The model makes St. Pauli the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Hannover 96 35.8%, draw 27.1%, St. Pauli 37.1%.
Hannover 96 have generated 1.40 goals per game (0.91x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.51 conceded per game. St. Pauli average 1.44 scored (0.94x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.07 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Hannover 96 and 1.3 for St. Pauli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.8%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St. Pauli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.1% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.