Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor prediction: Kasimpasa to win 1-0 as model gives 45.3% chance
Super Lig sees Kasimpasa face Samsunspor at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium. The model makes Kasimpasa the favourite, assigning a slight 45.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Kasimpasa 45.3%, draw 26.2%, Samsunspor 28.5%.
Kasimpasa have generated 1.13 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Samsunspor average 1.16 scored (0.82x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.77 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.6 for Kasimpasa and 1 for Samsunspor.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (51.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Kasimpasa to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.