Flamengo hold narrow edge in Rio derby

The model gives Flamengo a 59.6 per cent chance of beating Fluminense while Vasco da Gama and São Paulo emerge as the round's two strong favourites.

The Brasileirao returns after the international break with Flamengo facing Fluminense in the round's most watched match. Our numbers give the home side a 59.6 per cent probability of winning, enough for slight favourite status, while a draw sits at 23.6 per cent and an away win at 16.8 per cent.

Flamengo set to edge Fluminense

Flamengo67%vFluminense12.8%Flamengo to win · 67%

Flamengo enter with five wins from their last five matches. Expected goals sit at 2.1 for them and 0.8 for Fluminense, pointing to a controlled home performance and 2-0 as the most likely scoreline. The projection leans toward over 2.5 goals at 55.9 per cent, though both teams to score remains close to even at 49.9 per cent.

Elo ratings show Flamengo with a 172-point advantage once home advantage is included. Fluminense have three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, yet the underlying numbers still place them well behind their opponents. Recent results for both sides include a win in the latest outing.

Two sides carry strong probabilities

Vasco da Gama hold an 88.3 per cent chance against Remo and stand out as the round's clearest favourite. Their most likely scoreline is 2-1, with over 2.5 goals projected at 57.2 per cent. Remo have lost all five of their last matches.

São Paulo sit at 70.2 per cent to beat Vitória. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 win, and the over 2.5 goals line is only 36.3 per cent. Vitória have one win, one draw and three losses in their last five.

Several contests remain finely balanced

Most other matches fall into the marginal or slight favourite range. Athletico-PR sit at 43.5 per cent against Atlético-MG, Internacional at 46.8 per cent against Grêmio, and Bahia at 48.4 per cent against Mirassol. Palmeiras hold 58.3 per cent against Bahia and 63.7 per cent against Corinthians, both slight favourite territory.

Fluminense appear again at 64.4 per cent to win against Coritiba, their only other clear favourite call beyond the two strongest sides. Atlético-MG hold 42.3 per cent against Santos, another close call.

Form trends and recent results

Santos have five wins from five heading into their fixture, while Palmeiras have two wins and three draws. The sources note Corinthians parted ways with Fernando Diniz after seven straight defeats, a run that aligns with their 0 wins in the last five. Cruzeiro's midweek win over São Paulo lifted them into the top four, though that result sits outside this round.

Remaining fixtures

Athletico-PR v Atlético-MG, Athletico-PR 43.5% Fluminense v Coritiba, Fluminense 64.4% Palmeiras v Bahia, Palmeiras 58.3% Vasco da Gama v Remo, Vasco da Gama 88.3% São Paulo v Vitória, São Paulo 70.2% Atlético-MG v Santos, Atlético-MG 42.3% Internacional v Grêmio, Internacional 46.8% Palmeiras v Corinthians, Palmeiras 63.7% Bahia v Mirassol, Bahia 48.4%