Betting tips today: value picks
A tip is only worth taking if the price is wrong. These are the matches where our model gives the pick a clearly higher chance than the bookmaker's odds imply, largest gap first. Both numbers are shown so you can judge the edge yourself.
Our record on value picks: 54 correct out of 125 settled tips (43%). Value picks include many underdogs, so the hit rate is lower than for favourites by design.
| Match | Competition | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| TSG Hoffenheim v Besiktas Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Hoffenheim to win (61.7%) model 61.7% vs bookmaker 51.2% (+10.5) |
| Stade Rennais v OFI Crete Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Rennes to win (92%) model 92% vs bookmaker 82.6% (+9.4) |
| Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Conference League | Panathinaikos to win (90.1%) model 90.1% vs bookmaker 81% (+9.1) |
| Celta Vigo v Juventus Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Juventus to win (54.9%) model 54.9% vs bookmaker 46.5% (+8.4) |
| AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | AZ Alkmaar to win (82.4%) model 82.4% vs bookmaker 74.4% (+8) |
| Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg Fri 16 Oct, 17:30 UTC | Austrian Bundesliga | Rapid Vienna to win (86.5%) model 86.5% vs bookmaker 78.7% (+7.8) |
| NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Omonia to win (46.4%) model 46.4% vs bookmaker 39.2% (+7.2) |
| Marseille v Olympiacos Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Marseille to win (48.3%) model 48.3% vs bookmaker 41.7% (+6.6) |
| Al Faisaly v Al Kholood Thu 15 Oct, 13:40 UTC | Saudi Pro League | Al Kholood to win (48%) model 48% vs bookmaker 41.7% (+6.3) |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ararat-Armenia Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Jagiellonia to win (77.2%) model 77.2% vs bookmaker 71% (+6.2) |
| Grenoble v Boulogne Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Ligue 2 | Boulogne to win (36%) model 36% vs bookmaker 30% (+6) |
| Heerenveen v Excelsior Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Eredivisie | Heerenveen to win (67.3%) model 67.3% vs bookmaker 61.5% (+5.8) |
| Annecy v AS Nancy Lorraine Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Ligue 2 | Nancy to win (44.9%) model 44.9% vs bookmaker 39.2% (+5.7) |
| AFC Bournemouth v SK Sturm Graz Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Bournemouth to win (90.2%) model 90.2% vs bookmaker 84.6% (+5.6) |
| Union St.-Gilloise v Real Sociedad Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Real Sociedad to win (37.9%) model 37.9% vs bookmaker 32.5% (+5.4) |
| RB Salzburg v AC Milan Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Milan to win (56.2%) model 56.2% vs bookmaker 51.2% (+5) |
| NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | NEC to win (57.1%) model 57.1% vs bookmaker 52.4% (+4.7) |
| Al Ahli v Al Nassr Thu 15 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Saudi Pro League | Al Nassr to win (53.4%) model 53.4% vs bookmaker 48.8% (+4.6) |
| IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgården Fri 16 Oct, 17:00 UTC | Allsvenskan | Djurgården to win (72.2%) model 72.2% vs bookmaker 67.7% (+4.5) |
| AC Horsens v Randers FC Fri 16 Oct, 17:00 UTC | Danish Superliga | Randers to win (46.9%) model 46.9% vs bookmaker 42.6% (+4.3) |
| Le Mans v Toulouse Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 UTC | Ligue 1 | Toulouse to win (47.6%) model 47.6% vs bookmaker 43.5% (+4.1) |
| Stade Laval v Clermont Foot Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTC | Ligue 2 | Stade Laval to win (51.6%) model 51.6% vs bookmaker 47.6% (+4) |
| Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers Fri 16 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Championship | Wolves to win (46.6%) model 46.6% vs bookmaker 42.6% (+4) |
| Benfica v Celtic Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC | Europa League | Benfica to win (87%) model 87% vs bookmaker 83.3% (+3.7) |
| Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin Fri 16 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 2. Bundesliga | Hertha to win (49.2%) model 49.2% vs bookmaker 45.5% (+3.7) |
| Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg Fri 16 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 2. Bundesliga | 1. FC Nürnberg to win (54.5%) model 54.5% vs bookmaker 51.2% (+3.3) |
| Sparta Prague v Lillestrom Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC | Europa League | Sparta to win (77.4%) model 77.4% vs bookmaker 74.4% (+3) |
| Hellas Verona v Catanzaro Fri 16 Oct, 18:30 UTC | Serie B | Verona to win (57.5%) model 57.5% vs bookmaker 54.5% (+3) |
Questions
What is a value bet?
A bet where the true chance of winning is higher than the odds suggest. If a bookmaker implies 40% and the model says 46%, that six-point gap is the value.
Do value tips win every time?
No. Many value picks are underdogs and lose more often than they win; the point is that over many bets the prices pay more than the losses cost.
Where do the bookmaker probabilities come from?
From the published match odds with the bookmaker margin removed, so the three outcomes add up to 100%.
More predictions
Football predictions for tomorrow · Football predictions this weekend · Sure wins today · BTTS predictions · Over 2.5 goals predictions · Correct score predictions · Draw predictions · Over 1.5 goals predictions · 1X2 predictions · Double chance predictions · Track record