Brasileirao predictions: every match from 16 October to 18 October 2026

5 Brasileirao fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 2 clear favourites, 3 games the model calls close.

Two sides sit well clear of the rest in the probabilities for this round. Botafogo and Atlético-MG carry the strongest projections at home, while Mirassol and Palmeiras operate in narrower margins that leave room for an away result or a draw.

Botafogo hold the clearest edge

Botafogo are projected to win at 81.7 per cent against Chapecoense. The most likely scoreline sits at 2-0 and the over 2.5 goals line reaches 61.3 per cent. Chapecoense have taken just one win from their last five outings and arrive after a defeat. Our numbers therefore treat this as a straightforward home assignment.

Atlético-MG expected to control Coritiba

Atlético-MG follow closely at 72.3 per cent to beat Coritiba. A 2-0 scoreline again emerges as the single most probable outcome and the over 2.5 goals line stands at 60.3 per cent. Atlético-MG enter with three wins and two draws from five games; Coritiba have yet to win in the same stretch. Ticket sales for the fixture open this week according to Yahoo Sports, with the match set for Saturday evening.

Narrow calls for Mirassol and Palmeiras

Athletico-PR21.1%vPalmeiras51.7%Palmeiras to win · 51.7%

Palmeiras sit only just above 50 per cent at 51.7 per cent to take the points at Athletico-PR. Expected goals favour them 1.5 to 1.1, yet both teams to score lands at 53.9 per cent and the total hovers around the 2.5 line. Athletico-PR have collected two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five, while Palmeiras remain unbeaten across the same period. The model rates Palmeiras 6.2 points stronger than the market price of roughly 45.5 per cent.

Mirassol operate at 46.5 per cent to beat Internacional. A 1-0 result is the single most likely score and the over 2.5 goals line sits at 42.8 per cent. Both sides arrive with mixed recent records: Mirassol have two wins, two draws and one loss; Internacional have two wins, one draw and two losses.

Form and schedule context

Recent results show Palmeiras on the best run of the four home sides, while Coritiba remain the only team without a win in their last five. The two marginal favourites face opponents who have shown they can take points on the road, which keeps the door open for draws or away wins in those matches. No major team news has altered the projections beyond the listed records.

Remaining fixtures

Mirassol v Internacional, Mirassol 46.5% Botafogo v Chapecoense, Botafogo 81.7% Atlético-MG v Coritiba, Atlético-MG 72.3%