Champions League predictions: every match from 13 October to 14 October 2026

11 Champions League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 5 clear favourites, 6 games the model calls close.

Nine Champions League fixtures kick off on 13 October, with the model marking four of them as clear home or away wins at 65 per cent or higher while treating the other five as open contests.

Atlético Madrid host Manchester United

Atlético Madrid57.3%vManchester United23.9%Atlético to win · 57.3%

Atlético Madrid enter as slight favourites at 54.2 per cent. The projection gives them a narrow edge over Manchester United, whose own probability sits at 26.1 per cent. Expected goals tilt sharply the other way at 0.6 for the home side and 3.2 for the visitors, which helps explain why the over 2.5 goals line reaches 73.1 per cent.

Bookmakers price Atlético at roughly 47.6 per cent, so the model is 6.6 points more confident than the market. Elo ratings also place Atlético clearly ahead by 121 points once home advantage is included. Atlético have three wins and two losses in their last five matches, while Manchester United have two wins, two draws and one loss.

Strong away sides stand out

Arsenal sit at 84.5 per cent to beat Lille, with a most likely score of 3-0 and over 2.5 goals at 69.5 per cent. Arsenal arrive with four wins and one loss in the last five. Barcelona reach 79 per cent to win at Galatasaray, most likely 1-3, and over 2.5 goals at 81.3 per cent after five straight wins. Internazionale are at 87.9 per cent to overcome Club Brugge, most likely 2-1, with over 2.5 goals at 74.4 per cent.

Bayern Munich complete the quartet of strong favourites at 86.6 per cent to beat Viking FK, most likely 0-3, and over 2.5 goals at 77 per cent after four wins and one draw in the last five.

The remaining open matches

RB Leipzig are slight favourites at 59.5 per cent against PSV, where over 2.5 goals is projected at 80 per cent. Slavia Prague hold 55.3 per cent at home to Sabah, with over 2.5 goals at 70.9 per cent. Villarreal edge a marginal call at 44.4 per cent over Napoli, though over 2.5 goals drops to just 32.5 per cent. Lens sit at 36.5 per cent to beat Sporting, where over 2.5 goals reaches 81.1 per cent.

All remaining fixtures

Lens v Sporting, Lens 36.5% Slavia Prague v Sabah, Slavia Prague 55.3% Arsenal v Lille, Arsenal 84.5% Barcelona v Galatasaray, Barcelona 79% Internazionale v Club Brugge, Internazionale 87.9% RB Leipzig v PSV, RB Leipzig 59.5% Bayern Munich v Viking FK, Bayern Munich 86.6% Villarreal v Napoli, Villarreal 44.4%