Eredivisie: four strong favourites this round

Ajax lead the way at 82.6 per cent while PSV, FC Twente and FC Utrecht also sit above 65 per cent in the model.

Nine Eredivisie matches run from Friday to Sunday. The model marks four of them as clear favourites at 65 per cent or better, while the remaining five sit closer to even.

Ajax hold the largest edge

Ajax Amsterdam72.9%1-1NEC Nijmegen9.8%Ajax to win · 72.9%

Ajax Amsterdam enter as an 82.6 per cent favourite against NEC Nijmegen. The projection gives them 2.5 expected goals to 1.1, and the most probable scoreline is 2-1. Over 2.5 goals sits at 69.5 per cent and both teams to score at 63 per cent. Bookmakers price Ajax at 76.7 per cent, so the model is 5.9 points higher. Ajax carry a 147-point Elo advantage including home field. Their last five results read three wins, one draw and one loss, while NEC have one win, two draws and two losses.

PSV aim to recover at home

PSV Eindhoven sit at 85 per cent to beat Heerenveen. The most likely score is again 2-1, with Over 2.5 goals at 78.8 per cent. PSV have four wins and one loss in their last five, the latest a defeat. Heerenveen show one win, two draws and two losses.

Utrecht face a weaker opponent

FC Utrecht are 68.1 per cent favourites against Willem II. The projection points to a 2-0 win and Over 2.5 goals at 74.2 per cent. Utrecht have one win, two draws and two losses in the last five, with the most recent a defeat. Willem II have none wins, two draws and three losses.

Form lines across the division

Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar both arrive on four wins and one draw in their last five. Go Ahead Eagles are 56.8 per cent slight favourites over Sparta, while Feyenoord sit at 56.6 per cent against AZ. FC Twente are 73.8 per cent to defeat Fortuna Sittard after both sides won their most recent games. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow 54.8 per cent edge over Cambuur.

Lower-table clashes remain open

Telstar and ADO Den Haag both enter on poor recent records and the model gives Telstar only 47.9 per cent. FC Groningen are 45 per cent favourites against Excelsior.

Remaining matches

FC Groningen v Excelsior, FC Groningen 45% Telstar v ADO Den Haag, Telstar 47.9% PEC Zwolle v Cambuur, PEC Zwolle 54.8% Feyenoord Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar, Feyenoord 56.6% Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam, Go Ahead Eagles 56.8% PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen, PSV 85%