Gran Premio de La Ciudad de México prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli favourite at 28%

Formula 1 · Published 2026-10-26 · Updated 2026-10-26 23:00 UTC

Win and podium probabilities for every driver at the Gran Premio de La Ciudad de México, the championship picture and what the grid changes.

Photo: Liauzh, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Gran Premio de La Ciudad de México, round 19 of the 2026 season · Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, Mexico City, Mexico · race 2026-11-01 20:00:00Z UTC · qualifying 2026-10-31 21:00:00Z UTC

Grid known: no (pre-qualifying model: form and car only)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 28%, podium 66.9%, points finish 99.8%, expected finish 3
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing): win 13.6%, podium 42.4%, points finish 97.6%, expected finish 4.5
George Russell (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 11.7%, podium 37.4%, points finish 96.3%, expected finish 4.9
Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari): win 10.1%, podium 31.1%, points finish 94.2%, expected finish 5.4
Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari): win 8.1%, podium 26.3%, points finish 91.7%, expected finish 5.9
Lando Norris (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 7.4%, podium 23.6%, points finish 88.1%, expected finish 6.3
Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing): win 5.4%, podium 17.8%, points finish 78.5%, expected finish 7.4
Oscar Piastri (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 5.2%, podium 17%, points finish 77.9%, expected finish 7.5

Championship picture

Championship: P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli 365 pts (9 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P2 George Russell 242 pts (3 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P3 Lewis Hamilton 241 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P4 Max Verstappen 236 pts (2 wins), Red Bull Racing
Championship: P5 Charles Leclerc 233 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P6 Lando Norris 211 pts (2 wins), McLaren Formula 1 Team

Constructors: P1 Mercedes Formula 1 Team 607 pts
Constructors: P2 Scuderia Ferrari 474 pts
Constructors: P3 Red Bull Racing 355 pts
Constructors: P4 McLaren Formula 1 Team 355 pts

Recent races

Last race: Azerbaijan Grand Prix won by George Russell from P1 on the grid; podium RUS, VER, HAD
Last race: Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, ANT, HAM
Last race: Singapore Grand Prix won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, LEC, ANT
Last race: United States Grand Prix won by Andrea Kimi Antonelli from P1 on the grid; podium ANT, LEC, VER

Track record

Season to date on this model: winner picked correctly 13 of 18 races once the grid was known and 5 of 18 before qualifying (18 settled; earlier rounds back-tested, not live picks). On 2025 the grid model scored a log-loss of 1.24 against 3.00 for a blind guess among 20 drivers.

How to read these numbers

Driver strength is an exponentially weighted average of race scores over the last two seasons, mixed with the car (team-mate) strength; once qualifying is complete, grid position is added, which is the single strongest predictor of the winner. Probabilities come from simulating the finishing order thousands of times.