Grande Premio de Sao Paulo prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli favourite at 26.8%

Formula 1 · Published 2026-11-02 · Updated 2026-11-02 18:00 UTC

Win and podium probabilities for every driver at the Grande Premio de Sao Paulo, the championship picture and what the grid changes.

Photo: Liauzh, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Grande Premio de Sao Paulo, round 20 of the 2026 season · Autodromo José Carlos Pace | Interlagos, Sao Paulo, Brazil · race 2026-11-08 17:00:00Z UTC · qualifying 2026-11-07 18:00:00Z UTC

Grid known: no (pre-qualifying model: form and car only)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 26.8%, podium 64.9%, points finish 99.8%, expected finish 3.1
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing): win 15%, podium 45.8%, points finish 98.1%, expected finish 4.3
George Russell (Mercedes Formula 1 Team): win 11.1%, podium 35.4%, points finish 96.1%, expected finish 5.1
Charles Leclerc (Scuderia Ferrari): win 10.9%, podium 32.4%, points finish 95%, expected finish 5.2
Lewis Hamilton (Scuderia Ferrari): win 9.4%, podium 30.6%, points finish 94.4%, expected finish 5.5
Lando Norris (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 6.6%, podium 21.8%, points finish 87.2%, expected finish 6.5
Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing): win 5.2%, podium 17.4%, points finish 78.2%, expected finish 7.5
Oscar Piastri (McLaren Formula 1 Team): win 4.5%, podium 14.8%, points finish 73.6%, expected finish 7.9

Championship picture

Championship: P1 Andrea Kimi Antonelli 380 pts (9 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P2 Max Verstappen 261 pts (3 wins), Red Bull Racing
Championship: P3 Lewis Hamilton 259 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P4 George Russell 250 pts (3 wins), Mercedes Formula 1 Team
Championship: P5 Charles Leclerc 245 pts (1 wins), Scuderia Ferrari
Championship: P6 Lando Norris 221 pts (2 wins), McLaren Formula 1 Team

Constructors: P1 Mercedes Formula 1 Team 630 pts
Constructors: P2 Scuderia Ferrari 504 pts
Constructors: P3 Red Bull Racing 382 pts
Constructors: P4 McLaren Formula 1 Team 365 pts

Recent races

Last race: Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, ANT, HAM
Last race: Singapore Grand Prix won by Max Verstappen from P1 on the grid; podium VER, LEC, ANT
Last race: United States Grand Prix won by Andrea Kimi Antonelli from P1 on the grid; podium ANT, LEC, VER
Last race: Gran Premio de La Ciudad de México won by Max Verstappen from P5 on the grid; podium VER, HAM, ANT

Track record

Season to date on this model: winner picked correctly 13 of 19 races once the grid was known and 5 of 19 before qualifying (19 settled; earlier rounds back-tested, not live picks). On 2025 the grid model scored a log-loss of 1.24 against 3.00 for a blind guess among 20 drivers.

How to read these numbers

Driver strength is an exponentially weighted average of race scores over the last two seasons, mixed with the car (team-mate) strength; once qualifying is complete, grid position is added, which is the single strongest predictor of the winner. Probabilities come from simulating the finishing order thousands of times.