La Liga preview: Barcelona and Real Madrid lead the way

Our numbers single out four strong home favourites across the nine matches scheduled between Friday and Sunday.

Four sides sit at 65% or better to win at home this weekend while the other five fixtures sit close to even. Real Madrid host Villarreal on the Sunday slot as the clearest of the strong favourites at 77.3%.

Real Madrid set the standard

Real Madrid68.4%1-0Villarreal12%Real Madrid to win · 68.4%

Real Madrid hold a 77.3% chance to beat Villarreal. The projection gives them 2.5 expected goals against 1.3, and the model sees a 72.7% likelihood that the match exceeds 2.5 goals. Both teams are expected to score in 66.7% of simulations. Real Madrid enter with three wins and two losses in their last five, while Villarreal have two wins and three losses.

Elo ratings underline the gap, with Real Madrid 178 points clear once home advantage is added. The most probable exact score is 2-1. Villarreal have won their most recent match but still trail the projection badly.

Barcelona expected to keep clean sheet

Barcelona sit at 91.3% to defeat Getafe. The model’s most likely scoreline is 2-0 and the Over 2.5 line reaches only 52.8%. Barcelona arrive with five straight wins; Getafe have one win, two draws and two losses in their last five.

The projection leaves little room for an upset. Barcelona have not dropped points in their recent run and the numbers place Getafe well below the level required to take anything here.

Sociedad and Betis also strong at home

Real Sociedad are 70.8% to beat Deportivo. The most common projected score is 2-1 and the Over 2.5 goals line sits at 55.3%. Sociedad have three wins, one draw and one loss in the last five; Deportivo have two wins, two draws and one loss.

Real Betis are 67.3% to overcome Osasuna. A 2-0 scoreline leads the exact-score probabilities and the Over 2.5 line is 48.8%. Betis have three wins, one draw and one loss recently while Osasuna have one win, one draw and three losses.

Five tighter contests remain

Atlético Madrid hold a 60% chance at Alavés. The most likely score is 1-2 and Over 2.5 goals reaches 52.6%. Alavés have two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five; Atlético have four wins and one loss.

Espanyol are 43.5% to beat Málaga. The favourite label is marginal and the Over 2.5 line drops to 26.6%. Málaga have no wins in their last five; Espanyol have one win, one draw and three losses.

Athletic Club are 43.5% at Rayo. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 48.4%. Rayo have two wins, one draw and two losses in the last five; Athletic have two wins, two draws and one loss.

Celta Vigo sit at 43.8% to win at Elche. The most probable score is 1-2 and Over 2.5 goals is 55.2%. Elche have one win, one draw and three losses recently; Celta have one win, three draws and one loss.

Racing Santander are 44.8% at Valencia. Over 2.5 goals reaches 75.9%. Racing have two wins and three losses in their last five; Valencia have one win and four losses.

Remaining fixtures

Espanyol v Málaga, Espanyol, 43.5% Athletic Club v Rayo, Athletic Club, 43.5% Atlético Madrid v Alavés, Atlético Madrid, 60% Celta Vigo v Elche, Celta Vigo, 43.8% Racing Santander v Valencia, Racing Santander, 44.8%