Liga MX fixtures all open according to the model

Nine Liga MX matches from 10 to 12 October feature no side above 60 per cent and several coin-flip contests decided by small edges in recent results.

Nine Liga MX matches kick off between 10 and 12 October with every contest rated open by the probabilities. No team reaches the 65 per cent threshold that would mark a clear favourite, leaving outcomes dependent on narrow margins in expected goals and recent sequences.

Toluca narrow leaders at home

Tigres UANL28.7%3-2Toluca44.4%Toluca to win · 44.4%

Toluca sit at 49.7 per cent to beat Tigres UANL. The projection gives them 1.4 expected goals against 1.2 for the visitors, producing a 0-1 most likely scoreline and a total goals line that sits right on 2.5. Both teams to score carries a 54.3 per cent chance, almost exactly a coin flip. Bookmakers price Toluca around 44.4 per cent, so the model adds 5.3 points of confidence to the hosts.

Tigres UANL arrive with one win, three draws and one loss in their last five, the most recent a victory. Toluca have three wins, one draw and one loss over the same span, their latest game ending level. The small difference in current form explains why the probabilities remain tight rather than tilting further toward the home side.

Pachuca and América hold clearest edges

Pachuca are at 59.6 per cent against Necaxa. Their last five read two wins, two draws and one loss, ending with a defeat, while Necaxa sit on four losses and one draw. The model projects a 2-0 most likely score and 54.6 per cent chance of over 2.5 goals.

América reach 55 per cent to defeat Monterrey. Three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, capped by a victory, contrast with Monterrey’s one win, one draw and three losses. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 69.4 per cent, the highest such figure among the nine fixtures.

Midweek goals markets vary sharply

Cruz Azul are 55.3 per cent to win at UNAM. Their recent sequence shows three wins, one draw and one loss, while UNAM have one win, one draw and three losses. Over 2.5 goals sits at 63.8 per cent here, again above the 50 per cent mark.

Guadalajara hold 51.3 per cent at Atlas. Atlas have one win, two draws and two losses lately; Guadalajara have two wins, two draws and one loss. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 54.3 per cent and the most likely scoreline is 1-2.

Atlético de San Luis are 52.5 per cent favourites in their fixture, with over 2.5 goals at 58.3 per cent. Tijuana sit at 48.8 per cent against Juárez, where the over 2.5 line reaches 60 per cent. Querétaro are 48 per cent to beat Atlante, though the over 2.5 line there is only 40.6 per cent. León are 48 per cent against Puebla with the over line at 40.4 per cent.

All remaining fixtures

León v Puebla, León, 48% Tijuana v Juárez, Tijuana, 48.8% Querétaro v Atlante, Querétaro, 48% Guadalajara v Atlas, Guadalajara, 51.3% América v Monterrey, América, 55% Atlético de San Luis v Atl., Atlético de San Luis, 52.5% Pachuca v Necaxa, Pachuca, 59.6% Cruz Azul v UNAM, Cruz Azul, 55.3%