Liga Profesional: River hold 89% chance to win

The model sees River Plate as strong favourites while only one other side reaches clear favourite status this round.

Thirteen fixtures run from Friday to Monday in the Liga Profesional, and the model identifies just one side with better than 65 per cent probability of victory. River Plate stand out at 89 per cent against Estudiantes RC, while every other match falls into a narrow band where the favourite sits between 37 and 65 per cent. Form streaks and expected goals therefore carry extra weight in separating the close contests.

River Plate set for comfortable home win

Instituto (Córdoba)30.4%2-2Boca Juniors41.8%Boca to win · 41.8%

River Plate enter with three wins and one draw from their last five, and the projection gives them an 89 per cent chance of beating Estudiantes RC. The visitors have lost four of their last five, which aligns with the 2-0 most likely scoreline and a 46.5 per cent chance of over 2.5 goals. Our numbers treat this as the clearest mismatch of the round because the gap in recent results and the underlying expected goals both point the same way.

Tigre favoured despite poor run

Tigre sit at 64.9 per cent to beat Banfield even though they have lost four of their last five. The model still prefers them because Banfield managed only draws and defeats in the same stretch, and the most likely score of 1-0 reflects a low-scoring projection where over 2.5 goals sits at just 38.7 per cent. This remains the second-highest probability of the round and the only other match above 60 per cent.

Boca Juniors face tight home test

Boca Juniors hold a 46.6 per cent chance against Instituto, a marginal edge that sits close to a coin flip once the 28.4 per cent draw probability is included. Instituto arrive with four wins and one loss in their last five, matching Boca’s own strong sequence of four wins and one draw. Expected goals sit at 1.2 for each side, which explains the 58.8 per cent probability of under 2.5 goals and the 48.9 per cent chance both teams score. Bookmakers price Boca lower at 39.2 per cent, leaving the model seven points more bullish.

Remaining fixtures

Aldosivi v Sarmiento (J), Aldosivi 45.4% Gimnasia La Plata v Atl Tucumán, Gimnasia 55.1% Unión (SF) v Defensa, Unión 50.3% Barracas Central v Huracán, Barracas 37% Estudiantes LP v Central Córdoba, Estudiantes 51.2% San Lorenzo v Riestra, San Lorenzo 44.9% Argentinos Juniors v Platense, Argentinos 48.4% Rosario Central v Independiente, Rosario 58% Racing Club v Belgrano, Racing 47.9% Talleres v Independiente, Talleres 48.1%