Liga Profesional predictions: every match from 12 October to 15 October 2026

4 Liga Profesional fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 3 games the model calls close.

River Plate carry the clearest chance of victory among the four Liga Profesional matches running from 12 to 15 October. The other three fixtures sit near even money, with no side exceeding 43 per cent probability. Form streaks and expected goals underline why the projection sees limited separation in most games.

River Plate hold the edge on the road

Sarmiento enter on a mixed run of two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five, capped by a recent victory. River Plate arrive with four wins and one loss in the same span, their latest result also a win. The model gives River Plate a 65.9 per cent chance to take the points, the only figure above 65 per cent across the round. Expected goals sit in River Plate's favour and the over 2.5 line reaches 57.9 per cent, higher than in the other matches.

Lanús and Vélez set for low-scoring affair

Lanús39.6%vVélez Sarsfield32.7%Lanús to win · 39.6%

Lanús sit on three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five after a recent draw. Vélez Sarsfield match that unbeaten run with two wins and three draws, also ending level. The projection makes Lanús marginal favourites on 39.6 per cent, with the draw on 27.8 per cent and Vélez on 32.7 per cent. Expected goals of 1.1 to 0.9 point to a tight contest and the under 2.5 line reaches 68.4 per cent. Both teams to score carries just 40.6 per cent probability, while 1-0 emerges as the single most likely scoreline.

Gimnasia look to break Newell's resistance

Gimnasia (Mendoza) have one win, two draws and two losses in the last five after a defeat. Newell's sit on one win and four draws, their latest result a draw. The model rates Gimnasia (Mendoza) at 40.6 per cent to win, again close to a coin flip. The most probable exact score is 1-0 and the over 2.5 goals line stands at 36.8 per cent.

Huracán slight favourites at home

Huracán have three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, ending with a defeat. Gimnasia LP hold one win and four draws, latest result a draw. Huracán receive 42.9 per cent probability to win, the highest among the marginal calls. Expected goals again favour the lower total, with over 2.5 at 36.1 per cent and 1-0 the leading scoreline.

Remaining fixture

Sarmiento (J) v River Plate, River Plate win, 65.9%