MLS round features two strong favourites

Inter Miami CF and Philadelphia Union stand out among 15 fixtures spread across Saturday and Sunday.

Two matches stand apart in the coming round because the probabilities mark clear favourites at 65 per cent or higher, while the remaining thirteen look open by the model. Inter Miami CF carry the highest number at 76.1 per cent to beat D.C. United, and Philadelphia Union sit at 73.6 per cent against Real Salt Lake. Every other game falls between 40.4 per cent and 62 per cent, which leaves room for upsets or draws.

Inter Miami set for home edge

Inter Miami CF65%vD.C. United12.8%Miami to win · 65%

Inter Miami CF enter with an Elo rating 283 points above D.C. United once home advantage is added. The projection gives them 2.8 expected goals against 1.3 for the visitors, and the most likely exact score sits at 2-1. Over 2.5 goals carries 76.9 per cent probability while both teams to score reaches 68.2 per cent. Their recent form shows no wins in the last five matches, yet the underlying numbers still place them well clear of an opponent that has taken just one point from its last five outings.

Philadelphia maintain strong run

Philadelphia Union have won all five of their most recent matches and the model gives them 73.6 per cent to extend that sequence against Real Salt Lake. The expected scoreline again centres on 2-1, with over 2.5 goals at 73.8 per cent. Salt Lake arrive after one win and four losses in their last five, so the numbers align with a continuation of Philadelphia's form.

Toronto and Nashville hold narrow edges

Toronto FC sit at 52.1 per cent to defeat CF Montréal, a figure the model treats as close to even. The most probable result remains 2-1 and over 2.5 goals reaches 58.4 per cent. Nashville SC hold 60 per cent to beat Austin FC, with the likeliest score 0-1 and over 2.5 goals only 47 per cent. Both sides therefore sit just above coin-flip territory rather than in dominant territory.

Several games hover near 50 per cent

Chicago Fire FC carry 57.8 per cent against New York City FC, New England Revolution 54.8 per cent against Seattle Sounders, and Colorado Rapids 56.1 per cent against San Jose Earthquakes. Each of these is labelled a slight favourite yet none reaches the 65 per cent threshold that would mark them as clear. The remaining fixtures all fall between 40.4 per cent and 52.1 per cent, confirming the model sees the bulk of the round as competitive.

Remaining fixtures

Charlotte FC v FC Dallas, Charlotte 43.3% Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati, Atlanta 40.4% Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew, Orlando 47.8% San Diego FC v New York Red Bulls, San Diego 45.4% Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo, Minnesota 52.1% Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers, Sporting Kansas City 44.1% Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Los Angeles FC, Vancouver 45.4% St. Louis CITY SC v Los Angeles FC wait no, the last listed is St. Louis at 62% but details incomplete in data so omitted from deep review.