MLS predictions: every match from 14 October to 15 October 2026

15 MLS fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.

The model identifies three strong favourites at 65 per cent or better across the coming MLS round, while most of the other fixtures sit closer to a coin flip. Inter Miami carry the clearest edge at home against New York City FC. Nashville and LAFC complete the short list of sides expected to win with authority.

Miami hold clear edge at home

Inter Miami CF70%vNew York City FC11%Miami to win · 70%

Inter Miami enter as a strong favourite at 70 per cent. The projection gives them an expected-goals advantage of 2.3 to 1.3, which aligns with a 2-1 most likely scoreline. Over 2.5 goals sits at 69.7 per cent and both teams to score at 66.2 per cent. Their 185-point Elo advantage, including home field, underpins the probability.

Form offers little warning. Inter Miami have one win, three draws and one loss in the last five, with the most recent result a victory. New York City FC show one win, one draw and three losses over the same span and arrive on the back of a defeat. The numbers still place the hosts well clear.

Nashville carry the highest probability

Nashville SC sit at 84.2 per cent to beat Kansas City. The model points to a 3-0 most likely outcome and 74.7 per cent chance of over 2.5 goals. Nashville bring three wins, one draw and one loss from their last five matches, the latest a win. Kansas City have two wins, one draw and two losses, ending with a draw.

The size of the gap reflects both recent results and underlying ratings. A clean-sheet projection this high remains rare in the league, yet the data place Nashville in that territory here.

LAFC expected to control Austin visit

LAFC are a strong favourite at 75.5 per cent away to Austin. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 and over 2.5 goals sits at just 47.2 per cent, suggesting a tighter contest than the win probability alone indicates. LAFC have one win, two draws and two losses in the last five, the latest a draw. Austin show one win, three draws and one loss, ending with a defeat.

Even with modest goal expectation, the rating edge keeps LAFC firmly in control on the model.

Montreal, Columbus and DC United in tighter spots

CF Montréal sit at 43 per cent against Atlanta, Columbus Crew at 56.2 per cent against Charlotte and DC United at 58.4 per cent in their listed fixture. Each remains inside the marginal or slight favourite range, with over 2.5 goals probabilities between 48.9 and 59.8 per cent. Recent form lines show no side in dominant sequence.

Remaining fixtures

CF Montréal v Atlanta, CF Montréal, 43% Columbus Crew v Charlotte, Columbus Crew, 56.2% DC United v opponent, DC United, 58.4% FC Cincinnati v New England, FC Cincinnati, 52.4% Toronto FC v Orlando, Toronto FC, 46.5% Chicago Fire FC v Philadelphia, Chicago Fire FC, 40.7% FC Dallas v Seattle, FC Dallas, 51.9% St Louis CITY SC v opponent, St Louis CITY SC, 38.2% Colorado Rapids v Minnesota, Colorado Rapids, 47.8% Real Salt Lake v San Jose, Real Salt Lake, 55.7% LA Galaxy v Portland, LA Galaxy, 39.1% San Diego FC v Houston, San Diego FC, 47.1%