Model hits 40.5 per cent on 37 settled predictions

Fifteen correct calls out of 37 left the running total at 32 of 65 settled picks since launch.

The model finished the day with 15 correct predictions from 37 that settled, a 40.5 per cent hit rate that sits below the 49.2 per cent mark across all 65 settled picks to date. Several short-priced favourites lost, an outcome that occurs roughly half the time when probabilities sit between 45 and 55 per cent.

Day's headline results

The clearest miss came in NCAA Football where the projection assigned Southern Miss Golden Eagles an 87.7 per cent chance of beating Troy Trojans. Troy instead won 55-34. A 12.3 per cent outcome is expected once every eight such matches, so the gap points more toward missing inputs such as late team news than to an error in the probability itself.

The strongest call of the day belonged to the NBA, where Golden State Warriors were given 53.7 per cent to beat Los Angeles Lakers and delivered a 124-98 victory. That margin aligned with the slight edge the numbers had produced.

League splits

International friendlies produced four wins from ten predictions. UEFA Nations League matches yielded five from ten. NHL games finished four from nine, NBA two from four, and MLB zero from two.

The pattern across competitions shows no single league dragging the total down. Instead, a run of narrow misses on coin-flip calls combined with the one heavy favourite that failed produced the overall 40.5 per cent figure.

What the numbers imply

A daily hit rate of 40.5 per cent is within normal variation for a model whose longer-term mark sits near 49 per cent. The two highlighted games illustrate the range: one outcome that lands once in eight attempts and one that lands just over half the time when the probability sits at 53.7 per cent.

Further matches reviewed

Mexico entered its friendly with Chile listed at 65.3 per cent yet lost 0-2. Los Angeles Kings hosted Florida Panthers at 53.5 per cent for the visitors and the Panthers won 2-1. Seattle Kraken were slight favourites at 54.3 per cent against Vegas Golden Knights but fell 2-6. San Diego Padres hosted Milwaukee Brewers with the Brewers at 51 per cent and lost 3-4. Utah Jazz visited Denver Nuggets where Denver held a 50.6 per cent edge and won 117-106.

Chicago Fire FC hosted Vancouver Whitecaps with Vancouver at 45.1 per cent and still won 3-1. United States faced Canada at 42.1 per cent for the hosts and delivered a 1-0 result. Oklahoma City Thunder carried 65.9 per cent against New Orleans Pelicans but lost 110-116. Chicago Blackhawks hosted St Louis Blues where the visitors sat at 61.6 per cent and won 4-2.

New York Rangers held 55.7 per cent at home to New York Islanders and won 5-2. Charlotte Hornets entered at 63.6 per cent against Brooklyn Nets yet lost 90-124. Detroit Red Wings hosted Ottawa Senators with Ottawa at 57.8 per cent and the Senators won 5-3. Buffalo Sabres met Minnesota Wild at 50.4 per cent for the visitors and lost 3-2. Toronto Maple Leafs held 51.4 per cent at Nashville Predators and prevailed 5-4.

New Jersey Devils visited Utah Mammoth where Utah sat at 56.7 per cent and won 5-3. Montreal Canadiens carried 57.2 per cent at Carolina Hurricanes but lost 4-6. Argentina hosted Benin at 83.4 per cent and won 3-0. Atlanta Braves visited Los Angeles Dodgers at 51.1 per cent and lost 1-3. England faced Czechia at 91.3 per cent and won 3-0.

Estonia hosted Iceland with Iceland at 56.1 per cent yet drew 0-0. Belarus met Finland at 56.8 per cent for the visitors and lost 1-0. Switzerland hosted North Macedonia at 91.4 per cent and won 3-0. Croatia hosted Spain at 85.4 per cent for the visitors and lost 1-2. Luxembourg faced Bulgaria at 50 per cent and lost 0-2.

Moldova hosted Slovakia at 67.9 per cent for the visitors and lost 0-4. Scotland hosted Slovenia at 38.8 per cent and lost 1-2. Albania hosted San Marino at 91.4 per cent and won 2-1. Jordan faced Venezuela at 37.5 per cent for the visitors and drew 0-0. Algeria hosted Niger at 82.6 per cent and won 2-1.

Russia hosted Nigeria at 76.9 per cent and drew 3-3. India hosted Uruguay at 83.4 per cent for the visitors and drew 1-1. Kazakhstan hosted Faroe Islands at 36.6 per cent and drew 2-2. China hosted Tajikistan at 49.6 per cent and lost 0-1. South Korea hosted Uzbekistan at 43.1 per cent for the visitors and lost 2-0.

Remaining settled predictions

Mexico v Chile, Mexico (65.3%) Los Angeles Kings v Florida Panthers, Florida Panthers (53.5%) Seattle Kraken v Vegas Golden Knights, Seattle Kraken (54.3%) San Diego Padres v Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee Brewers (51%) Utah Jazz v Denver Nuggets, Denver Nuggets (50.6%) Chicago Fire FC v Vancouver Whitecaps, Vancouver Whitecaps (45.1%) United States v Canada, United States (42.1%) Oklahoma City Thunder v New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder (65.9%) Chicago Blackhawks v St. Louis Blues, St. Louis Blues (61.6%) New York Rangers v New York Islanders, New York Rangers (55.7%) Charlotte Hornets v Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets (63.6%) Detroit Red Wings v Ottawa Senators, Ottawa Senators (57.8%) Buffalo Sabres v Minnesota Wild, Minnesota Wild (50.4%) Toronto Maple Leafs v Nashville Predators, Toronto Maple Leafs (51.4%) New Jersey Devils v Utah Mammoth, Utah Mammoth (56.7%) Montreal Canadiens v Carolina Hurricanes, Montreal Canadiens (57.2%) Argentina v Benin, Argentina (83.4%) Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves (51.1%) England v Czechia, England (91.3%) Estonia v Iceland, Iceland (56.1%) Belarus v Finland, Finland (56.8%) Switzerland v North Macedonia, Switzerland (91.4%) Croatia v Spain, Spain (85.4%) Luxembourg v Bulgaria, Luxembourg (50%) Moldova v Slovakia, Slovakia (67.9%) Scotland v Slovenia, Scotland (38.8%) Albania v San Marino, Albania (91.4%) Jordan v Venezuela, Venezuela (37.5%) Algeria v Niger, Algeria (82.6%) Russia v Nigeria, Russia (76.9%) India v Uruguay, Uruguay (83.4%) Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan (36.6%) China v Tajikistan, China (49.6%) South Korea v Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan (43.1%)