How the model did: 11 of 22 right (50%) on 7 October 2026

22 settled matches, 11 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Red Bull Bragantino) and the honest numbers behind them.

The projection reached its usual level on a busy day of action across several leagues. Eleven of the 22 settled selections came through, keeping the overall rate almost unchanged at 49.4 percent.

NBA outcomes mixed

Two of five NBA picks landed. Portland Trail Blazers at 58.6 percent covered the 123-118 win over Golden State Warriors. Chicago Bulls at 54 percent also delivered in their 124-117 result against Phoenix Suns. Memphis Grizzlies at 52.3 percent and Oklahoma City Thunder at 64.4 percent both fell short. The pattern showed the model captured two modest edges while missing on higher-percentage calls.

Brasileirao delivers four wins

Four of six Brazilian league predictions proved accurate. Cruzeiro at 46.5 percent beat São Paulo 2-0. Botafogo at 42 percent for Vasco da Gama finished correctly with the 1-2 scoreline. Vitória at 56.5 percent romped 4-0 past Chapecoense. Internacional at 42 percent covered its 2-1 win over Corinthians. The two misses came on Red Bull Bragantino and Remo.

MLB and NHL show lower returns

One of four MLB selections succeeded. San Diego Padres at 51 percent for Milwaukee Brewers came through in the 1-3 result. New York Yankees at 53.5 percent, Atlanta Braves at 51.1 percent and Chicago White Sox at 53.6 percent all missed. In the NHL the single correct pick was Washington Capitals at 50.8 percent in their 5-3 win over Pittsburgh Penguins. Anaheim Ducks at 52.4 percent and Colorado Avalanche at 54.3 percent both failed.

WNBA stands out

Both WNBA predictions succeeded. Golden State Valkyries at 54.5 percent edged Las Vegas Aces 83-81. Atlanta Dream at 58.6 percent also covered the 101-98 win over New York Liberty. These two results formed the cleanest return of the day.

College and other notes

One of two NCAA football selections hit when Florida International Panthers at 55.5 percent won 22-3. Kennesaw State Owls at 55.5 percent lost. The lone draw that stood out involved Red Bull Bragantino, where the model assigned 53.5 percent to the home side yet the 1-1 score arrived instead. A 23.4 percent probability for the draw means such outcomes occur roughly once every four similar fixtures.

Running record holds steady

The 11 correct picks from 22 settled calls brought the total to 43 of 87. That rate remains near even. League splits showed WNBA perfect at two from two while NBA managed two from five and MLB one from four.

All settled picks

Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, 58.6% Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, 52.4% San Diego Padres v Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee Brewers, 51% Golden State Valkyries v Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries, 54.5% Cruzeiro v São Paulo, Cruzeiro, 46.5% Florida International Panthers v New Mexico State Aggies, Florida International Panthers, 55.5% Memphis Grizzlies v Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies, 52.3% Oklahoma City Thunder v Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, 64.4% Chicago Bulls v Phoenix Suns, Chicago Bulls, 54% New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, 53.5% Botafogo v Vasco da Gama, Vasco da Gama, 42% Atlanta Dream v New York Liberty, Atlanta Dream, 58.6% Washington Capitals v Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, 50.8% Winnipeg Jets v Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Avalanche, 54.3% Vitória v Chapecoense, Vitória, 56.5% Indiana Pacers v Minnesota Timberwolves, Minnesota Timberwolves, 50.4% Kennesaw State Owls v Jacksonville State Gamecocks, Kennesaw State Owls, 55.5% Internacional v Corinthians, Internacional, 42% Red Bull Bragantino v Mirassol, Red Bull Bragantino, 53.5% Remo v Grêmio, Remo, 38.5% Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, 51.1% Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, 53.6%