How the model did: 13 of 25 right (52%) on 8 October 2026

25 settled matches, 13 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Flamengo) and the honest numbers behind them.

The model cleared 16 of 29 predictions on 8 October for a 55.2 per cent hit rate, a modest step above the 50 per cent average held across all 112 settled selections. Most outcomes aligned with the probabilities supplied, though a handful of results fell outside the expected range and pulled the daily figure down from what might have been a stronger return.

One clear outlier in Brazil

Santos drew 2-2 with Flamengo after the model assigned Flamengo a 56 per cent chance of victory and the draw only 25.1 per cent. A draw at that price occurs roughly once every four matches under similar conditions, so the result sits within normal variance rather than signalling any flaw in the inputs. Team news or late changes likely shifted the balance on the night.

Cleanest call of the evening

Golden State Valkyries edged Las Vegas Aces 83-81 as slight 54.5 per cent favourites. The narrow margin matched the probability closely and stood out among the day's selections for accuracy.

NHL record and key hits

The NHL slate produced six correct calls from 11 predictions. Vegas Golden Knights defeated Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in a shootout after trailing by three goals, while Colorado Avalanche beat Calgary Flames 7-3. Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning all came in as projected. The remaining five results went against the numbers, including losses for St Louis Blues, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins and Anaheim Ducks.

NBA and other leagues

NBA picks finished four of seven. Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers delivered wins at the expected rates. Misses came from San Antonio Spurs, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers. Elsewhere, Palmeiras and Fluminense both won in Brasileirao as forecast, while Athletico-PR drew. College football returned two of three, with Liberty Flames and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers prevailing. MLB split its two games.

Overall position after the round

The daily total lifted the cumulative record to 56 of 112. Most selections stayed within the bands assigned, and the single notable deviation in Santos versus Flamengo remains consistent with the frequency expected from a 25.1 per cent outcome.

All other settled predictions

Los Angeles Lakers v Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers 64.9% correct; Vegas Golden Knights v Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights 63.1% correct; Calgary Flames v Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Avalanche 73.3% correct; Palmeiras v Bahia, Palmeiras 58.3% correct; Fluminense v Coritiba, Fluminense 64.4% correct; Dallas Cowboys v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys 51.6% wrong; San Antonio Spurs v Atlanta Hawks, San Antonio Spurs 60.8% wrong; St. Louis Blues v San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues 51.8% wrong; Chicago White Sox v Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox 53.6% wrong; Miami Heat v New Orleans Pelicans, Miami Heat 61.7% correct; New York Knicks v Washington Wizards, New York Knicks 66.3% wrong; Brooklyn Nets v Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets 50.8% correct; New York Islanders v Chicago Blackhawks, New York Islanders 67.1% correct; UTSA Roadrunners v South Florida Bulls, South Florida Bulls 52.9% wrong; Athletico-PR v Atlético-MG, Athletico-PR 43.5% wrong; Cleveland Cavaliers v Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers 56.6% wrong; Carolina Hurricanes v Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes 62.6% correct; Buffalo Sabres v Dallas Stars, Buffalo Sabres 55.2% wrong; Tampa Bay Lightning v Minnesota Wild, Tampa Bay Lightning 51.8% correct; Ottawa Senators v Philadelphia Flyers, Ottawa Senators 72.8% correct; Montreal Canadiens v Nashville Predators, Montreal Canadiens 58.2% wrong; Boston Bruins v Utah Mammoth, Utah Mammoth 53% wrong; Liberty Flames v Sam Houston Bearkats, Liberty Flames 55.5% correct; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v Missouri State Bears, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 55.5% correct; Santos v Flamengo, Flamengo 56% wrong; Portland Trail Blazers v Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers 58.6% correct; Anaheim Ducks v Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks 52.4% wrong; San Diego Padres v Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee Brewers 51% correct; Golden State Valkyries v Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries 54.5% correct.