How the model did: 40 of 66 right (60.6%) on 9 October 2026

66 settled matches, 40 correct picks, one real upset (West Indies over India) and the honest numbers behind them.

The day produced an even split of 18 wins and 18 losses from the 36 predictions that settled. That outcome sits one point above the running average of 49 percent across all 145 settled picks to date.

The clearest miss

The largest gap between projection and result came in the West Indies tour match against India. Our numbers assigned India an 79.4 percent chance and treated them as a strong favourite, yet the contest finished level. A result at the 20.6 percent probability level for the visitors occurs roughly once in five matches at those odds, so the outcome raises the usual question of whether late inputs such as team news altered the picture rather than any flaw in the base probability.

The tightest successful call

Washington Capitals were rated at 51.3 percent against the New York Rangers, placing them just above a coin flip. The Capitals delivered a 3-1 win, confirming the marginal edge our numbers identified. That pick stood out because several other near-even NHL selections went the opposite way on the same night.

League-level splits

NHL results accounted for four of the six settled predictions in that sport. NCAA football produced three correct calls from five. ATP Shanghai delivered a clean three from three, while the two Primeira Liga matches both landed. Liga MX, WNBA and Liga Profesional each finished with zero or one correct.

The table below summarises the full set of settled predictions in the order they appear in the data.

Kyoka Okamura v Elvina Kalieva: Kyoka Okamura (51 percent) correct Daniil Medvedev v Jan-Lennard Struff: Daniil Medvedev (72 percent) correct Jiri Lehecka v Nuno Borges: Jiri Lehecka (64.4 percent) correct Thiago Agustin Tirante v Rafael Jodar: Rafael Jodar (60.2 percent) correct Tigres UANL v Toluca: Toluca (44.4 percent) wrong BYU Cougars v Iowa State Cyclones: BYU Cougars (55.5 percent) correct Las Vegas Aces v Golden State Valkyries: Las Vegas Aces (60.3 percent) wrong Puebla v León: León (43.4 percent) wrong San José State Spartans v Wyoming Cowboys: San José State Spartans (55.5 percent) wrong Washington Huskies v Iowa Hawkeyes: Washington Huskies (55.5 percent) wrong Utah State Aggies v Washington State Cougars: Utah State Aggies (55.5 percent) correct Unión (Santa Fe) v Defensa y Justicia: Unión (Santa Fe) (42.3 percent) wrong Winnipeg Jets v Anaheim Ducks: Winnipeg Jets (58.4 percent) wrong Chicago Bulls v Memphis Grizzlies: Chicago Bulls (59.1 percent) wrong New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream: New York Liberty (56.2 percent) wrong Detroit Red Wings v Seattle Kraken: Detroit Red Wings (51.4 percent) wrong Washington Capitals v New York Rangers: Washington Capitals (51.3 percent) correct Columbus Blue Jackets v Pittsburgh Penguins: Columbus Blue Jackets (51.3 percent) correct Louisville Cardinals v Florida State Seminoles: Louisville Cardinals (55.5 percent) correct Instituto (Córdoba) v Boca Juniors: Boca Juniors (41.8 percent) wrong Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucumán: Gimnasia La Plata (47 percent) wrong Braga v Sporting CP: Sporting CP (45.2 percent) correct Málaga v Espanyol: Espanyol (42.3 percent) wrong West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers: West Ham United (61.9 percent) wrong Lens v Lyon: Lyon (37 percent) wrong Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen: Borussia Dortmund (66.8 percent) wrong PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen: PSV Eindhoven (70.1 percent) correct Moreirense v Gil Vicente: Gil Vicente (46.6 percent) correct Aldosivi v Sarmiento (Junín): Sarmiento (Junín) (36.7 percent) correct Namibia v United Arab Emirates: Namibia (59.9 percent) correct India v West Indies: India (79.4 percent) wrong Pakistan v Sri Lanka: Pakistan (79.2 percent) correct Dallas Mavericks v Houston Rockets: Dallas Mavericks (51 percent) wrong Los Angeles Lakers v Sacramento Kings: Los Angeles Lakers (64.9 percent) correct Vegas Golden Knights v Toronto Maple Leafs: Vegas Golden Knights (63.1 percent) correct Calgary Flames v Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche (73.3 percent) correct

How the streaks played out

Three consecutive ATP calls landed correctly, while five of the six NHL selections produced a mixed bag that still netted four wins overall. The two WNBA games both missed, as did both Liga MX fixtures. Those short runs explain the exact 50 percent daily total without any single league dominating the outcome.

Remaining settled games in order

Kyoka Okamura v Elvina Kalieva pick Kyoka Okamura 51 percent Daniil Medvedev v Jan-Lennard Struff pick Daniil Medvedev 72 percent Jiri Lehecka v Nuno Borges pick Jiri Lehecka 64.4 percent Thiago Agustin Tirante v Rafael Jodar pick Rafael Jodar 60.2 percent Tigres UANL v Toluca pick Toluca 44.4 percent BYU Cougars v Iowa State Cyclones pick BYU Cougars 55.5 percent Las Vegas Aces v Golden State Valkyries pick Las Vegas Aces 60.3 percent Puebla v León pick León 43.4 percent San José State Spartans v Wyoming Cowboys pick San José State Spartans 55.5 percent Washington Huskies v Iowa Hawkeyes pick Washington Huskies 55.5 percent Utah State Aggies v Washington State Cougars pick Utah State Aggies 55.5 percent Unión (Santa Fe) v Defensa y Justicia pick Unión (Santa Fe) 42.3 percent Winnipeg Jets v Anaheim Ducks pick Winnipeg Jets 58.4 percent Chicago Bulls v Memphis Grizzlies pick Chicago Bulls 59.1 percent New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream pick New York Liberty 56.2 percent Detroit Red Wings v Seattle Kraken pick Detroit Red Wings 51.4 percent Washington Capitals v New York Rangers pick Washington Capitals 51.3 percent Columbus Blue Jackets v Pittsburgh Penguins pick Columbus Blue Jackets 51.3 percent Louisville Cardinals v Florida State Seminoles pick Louisville Cardinals 55.5 percent Instituto (Córdoba) v Boca Juniors pick Boca Juniors 41.8 percent Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucumán pick Gimnasia La Plata 47 percent Braga v Sporting CP pick Sporting CP 45.2 percent Málaga v Espanyol pick Espanyol 42.3 percent West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers pick West Ham United 61.9 percent Lens v Lyon pick Lyon 37 percent Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen pick Borussia Dortmund 66.8 percent PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen pick PSV Eindhoven 70.1 percent Moreirense v Gil Vicente pick Gil Vicente 46.6 percent Aldosivi v Sarmiento (Junín) pick Sarmiento (Junín) 36.7 percent Namibia v United Arab Emirates pick Namibia 59.9 percent India v West Indies pick India 79.4 percent Pakistan v Sri Lanka pick Pakistan 79.2 percent Dallas Mavericks v Houston Rockets pick Dallas Mavericks 51 percent Los Angeles Lakers v Sacramento Kings pick Los Angeles Lakers 64.9 percent Vegas Golden Knights v Toronto Maple Leafs pick Vegas Golden Knights 63.1 percent Calgary Flames v Colorado Avalanche pick Colorado Avalanche 73.3 percent