How the model did: 132 of 237 right (55.7%) on 10 October 2026

237 settled matches, 132 correct picks, one real upset (Hamburg SV over TSG Hoffenheim) and the honest numbers behind them.

The projection settled 239 calls on 10 October and finished with 131 correct, a 54.8 per cent rate that sits just above the running total of 53.8 per cent. That daily figure came from a wide spread of sports, with clear strengths in some competitions and noticeable shortfalls in others.

Day's main numbers

The 131 correct selections from 239 picks produced the 54.8 per cent hit rate. The season mark now stands at 211 correct from 392 settled predictions. Several competitions returned above-average results while others dragged the total down, particularly those with tight margins or late swings.

Upset and best call

Hamburg SV defeated TSG Hoffenheim 3-2 after the projection assigned Hoffenheim a 65.5 per cent chance of victory and Hamburg SV only 13.4 per cent. A result at that low probability occurs roughly once in seven similar fixtures, and the gap points to factors outside the main inputs rather than an error in the assigned odds. Nashville SC delivered the day's strongest alignment when it won 4-1 at Austin FC as a 54.6 per cent slight favourite.

League breakdowns

NCAA football produced 28 correct from 47 settled picks. Tennis at the ATP Shanghai Masters reached 14 of 18. MLS finished at 8 of 14. NHL returned 9 of 14. League One reached 8 of 12 while League Two managed only 2 of 12. The Championship recorded 5 of 10. NBA came in at 4 of 7. Liga MX managed 1 of 6 and Serie B 3 of 6. Bundesliga finished 4 of 6 and the Premier League 3 of 6. Ligue 1 also reached 3 of 5. Smaller samples included La Liga at 3 of 4, the Belgian Pro League at 4 of 4 and the 2. Bundesliga at 2 of 4.

Further sport results

Super Lig returned 2 of 4 and the Scottish Premiership 2 of 4. J1 League finished 2 of 4. The ICC Men's T20 qualifier reached 2 of 3 while Primera A managed 1 of 3 and Primera Division 0 of 3. Primeira Liga hit 2 of 3, LaLiga 2 reached 3 of 3 and Serie A 2 of 3. Ligue 2 also finished 2 of 3. Saudi Pro League and the Austrian Bundesliga each recorded 1 of 3. Allsvenskan posted 0 of 3. Brasileirao and the Greek Super League each reached 1 of 2, as did Eliteserien. WTA events showed mixed returns, with the Samsun Open at 0 of 2 and both the China Open and Suzhou Open at 2 of 2.

Pattern across the card

Correct calls clustered around favourites in the 60-80 per cent range in several European leagues, while lower-percentage picks in MLS and some college football games produced more variance. The Hoffenheim-Hamburg result stood out because the model had assigned a clear edge that did not hold, yet most other Bundesliga selections landed inside expected bands. Tennis selections showed the highest consistency, with 14 of 18 correct across a range of probabilities.

Remaining games

No further selections from 10 October remain unsettled.