How the model did: 80 of 143 right (55.9%) on 11 October 2026
143 settled matches, 80 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Washington Commanders) and the honest numbers behind them.
The projection cleared 55.8 per cent of its 147 settled calls for the day, a modest lift on the long-term average. That placed the overall record at 288 correct from 529 attempts.
Daily tally and context
Eighty-two wins from 147 represented a small step forward from the running rate. The figure sits just above the season-long mark yet still reflects the narrow margins typical across many sports. Several tight calls in football and tennis shaped the outcome, while basketball and ice hockey delivered steadier returns.
Standout miss in the NFL
Washington Commanders entered as a 53.5 per cent favourite yet finished level at 27-27 with the New York Giants. The draw carried only a 6 per cent probability in the numbers. Such an outcome occurs roughly once in every 17 comparable fixtures, and the gap points to inputs that did not fully capture late developments rather than a flaw in the base calculation.
Cleanest call of the round
Lazio travelled to Monza as a 54.9 per cent slight favourite and delivered a 3-1 win. The result aligned with the projection without requiring any stretch in the underlying data. It stood as the clearest single success among the higher-profile fixtures.
League-by-league breakdown
NFL finished with seven correct from 13. ATP Shanghai produced five from ten. NBA went four from five. NHL also recorded four from five. Brasileirao matched that rate at four from five. Serie A managed two from five. Liga MX posted zero from four. LaLiga 2 reached three from four while La Liga itself sat at two from four. Greek Super League delivered a perfect four from four. Belgian Pro League split two from four. Eliteserien recorded zero from four. Danish Superliga and Eredivisie each managed two from four. J1 League also finished two from four. Primera A went zero from three. MLS recorded one from three. Primeira Liga and Ligue 1 both went three from three. Saudi Pro League managed one from three. Serie B and Super Lig each reached two from three. Premier League finished one from three. Austrian Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga both closed at two from three. ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A went three from three while the B qualifier went two from two. Bundesliga recorded two from two. ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 finished two from two. Allsvenskan and Scottish Premiership each managed one from two. NCAA Football closed at one from two.
Patterns across the card
Tennis produced a mixed bag with several upsets against favourites above 60 per cent. Football showed clearer separation between stronger and weaker projections, though draws continued to test the edges. The four correct calls in the Greek Super League stood out for consistency. Basketball and hockey maintained higher reliability on favourites in the 60-plus range.
Broader run rate
The 54.4 per cent mark across 529 settled picks remains the reference point. Yesterday's 55.8 per cent nudged the average forward without altering the underlying distribution of probabilities. Most leagues continue to cluster around the mid-50s when sample sizes grow.
Remaining fixtures
No further games settled after the close of play on 11 October.