How the model did: 48 of 79 right (60.8%) on 12 October 2026

79 settled matches, 48 correct picks, one real upset (Kalamata over PAOK) and the honest numbers behind them.

The projection posted a 60% hit rate on the 80 settled picks from 12 October. That sits well above the 55.2% lifetime mark and also above the typical closing market rate near 53% in three-way markets. The day featured one clear outlier and several tight calls that landed on the right side.

PAOK favourite falls at home

The model assigned PAOK an 86.5% chance against Kalamata and labelled the visitors a 3% shot. Kalamata won 3-1. A 3% outcome is expected roughly once in 33 such fixtures, so the miss points to missing inputs such as late team news rather than any flaw in the probability itself.

Atlanta edge proves accurate

Atlanta Hawks were given 53.6% to beat Oklahoma City Thunder and delivered a 113-110 win. The projection treated the Hawks as a slight favourite and the result matched the narrow margin the numbers implied. Two other NBA picks settled and both went against the model.

Mixed results across tennis and football

Tennis produced the highest volume of settled picks. The Wuhan Open saw 9 of 16 correct while the Mallorca event went 5 of 5. Shanghai managed only 4 of 9. Football leagues showed similar variance: Serie A went 2 of 2, Allsvenskan 2 of 2 and the Australian domestic one-day competition 1 of 2.

League-by-league breakdown

NHL settled three picks and all landed. LaLiga 2 managed 2 of 4 while Brasileirao took 2 of 3. MLB finished 1 of 2 and the Australian domestic competition 1 of 2. The remaining competitions each contributed smaller numbers but followed the same pattern of scattered hits and misses.

Remaining settled picks

Mayar Sherif v Maja Chwalinska, Maja Chwalinska (53%) correct Alex de Minaur v Karen Khachanov, Alex de Minaur (60.7%) correct Katerina Siniakova v Liudmila Samsonova, Katerina Siniakova (50.4%) wrong Dayana Yastremska v Cristina Bucsa, Cristina Bucsa (55.4%) wrong Kimberly Birrell v Katie Volynets, Katie Volynets (56.8%) correct Utah Jazz v San Antonio Spurs, San Antonio Spurs (52.3%) wrong Los Angeles Rams v Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams (52.1%) wrong Red Bull Bragantino v Cruzeiro, Red Bull Bragantino (44.2%) correct Minnesota Wild v Vegas Golden Knights, Minnesota Wild (53.2%) correct Tampa Bay Rays v Cleveland Guardians, Tampa Bay Rays (55.8%) wrong New York Knicks v Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks (58.3%) wrong Washington Wizards v Brooklyn Nets, Washington Wizards (56.5%) wrong New Jersey Devils v Ottawa Senators, Ottawa Senators (56%) correct New South Wales v Tasmania, New South Wales (64.3%) wrong Chapecoense v Athletico-PR, Athletico-PR (50.3%) correct Gimnasia (Mendoza) v Newell's Old Boys, Gimnasia (Mendoza) (40.6%) correct Milwaukee Brewers v Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers (53.4%) correct Universidad de Chile v Ñublense, Universidad de Chile (62.4%) correct Portland Trail Blazers v London Lions, London Lions (64.2%) wrong FC Famalicao v Alverca, FC Famalicao (47.7%) wrong Coventry City v Newcastle United, Newcastle United (49.8%) wrong Lanús v Vélez Sarsfield, Lanús (39.6%) correct Tenerife v Girona, Girona (51%) wrong Levante v Sevilla, Sevilla (40.6%) wrong Coritiba v Botafogo, Botafogo (40.1%) wrong Dijon FCO v Metz, Metz (43.9%) wrong Torino v Udinese, Torino (39.6%) correct Mona Barthel v Lucia Bronzetti, Mona Barthel (51.8%) wrong IF Elfsborg v Halmstads BK, IF Elfsborg (73.6%) correct AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold, AGF (70.6%) correct Eyupspor v Goztepe, Goztepe (50%) correct Malmö FF v Kalmar FF, Malmö FF (53.1%) correct KFUM Oslo v Vålerenga, Vålerenga (43.9%) wrong Buffalo Sabres v Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres (51.2%) correct Atalanta v Venezia, Atalanta (53.3%) correct Real Oviedo v Eibar, Real Oviedo (40.7%) correct Leyre Romero Gormaz v Alice Rame, Leyre Romero Gormaz (63.9%) correct Lisa Pigato v Julia Avdeeva, Lisa Pigato (76.7%) correct Linda Klimovicova v Lucie Havlickova, Lucie Havlickova (58%) correct Polina Iatcenko v Harmony Tan, Polina Iatcenko (56.2%) wrong Andrea Lazaro Garcia v Yasmine Kabbaj, Andrea Lazaro Garcia (51.1%) correct Burgos v Granada, Burgos (35.2%) wrong Barbora Palicova v Jazmin Ortenzi, Jazmin Ortenzi (62.7%) correct Jennifer Ruggeri v Elizara Yaneva, Elizara Yaneva (64.5%) correct Clara Burel v Lina Gjorcheska, Clara Burel (81.1%) correct Alexandra Eala v Shi Han, Alexandra Eala (82%) wrong Emiliana Arango v Gabriela Knutson, Gabriela Knutson (67.7%) correct Tommy Paul v Valentin Vacherot, Tommy Paul (58.5%) correct Julia Grabher v Deborah Chiesa, Julia Grabher (78.1%) correct Real Valladolid v Albacete, Real Valladolid (40.9%) correct Wang Xiyu v Wang Xinyu, Wang Xiyu (52.1%) correct Arthur Fils v Botic Van De Zandschulp, Arthur Fils (70.7%) wrong Eva Vedder v Francesca Curmi, Francesca Curmi (65.5%) correct Zizou Bergs v Carlos Alcaraz, Carlos Alcaraz (90.7%) wrong Aran Teixido Garcia v Laura Samson, Laura Samson (69.1%) correct Daniil Medvedev v Dalibor Svrcina, Daniil Medvedev (72.2%) correct Catherine McNally v Yuliia Starodubtseva, Catherine McNally (62.1%) correct Maria Sakkari v Donna Vekic, Maria Sakkari (58.9%) correct Stefanos Tsitsipas v Taylor Fritz, Taylor Fritz (60.1%) wrong Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Magdalena Frech, Mananchaya Sawangkaew (52.2%) wrong Jiri Lehecka v Rafael Jodar, Jiri Lehecka (51.8%) wrong Jasmine Paolini v Sara Bejlek, Jasmine Paolini (50.2%) correct Myanmar v Thailand, Thailand (72.6%) correct Bhutan v Kuwait, Kuwait (79.3%) correct Iva Jovic v Mia Pohankova, Iva Jovic (52%) wrong Clara Tauson v Marie Bouzkova, Marie Bouzkova (66%) correct Janice Tjen v Oleksandra Oliynykova, Janice Tjen (62.7%) correct Learner Tien v Casper Ruud, Learner Tien (56.2%) wrong Pablo Carreno Busta v Felix Auger-Aliassime, Felix Auger-Aliassime (69.2%) correct Victoria v South Australia, South Australia (50.6%) correct Diane Parry v Anna Kalinskaya, Diane Parry (52.6%) wrong Anhelina Kalinina v Sonay Kartal, Sonay Kartal (63.5%) correct Ekaterina Alexandrova v Leylah Fernandez, Ekaterina Alexandrova (51.8%) wrong América de Cali v Independiente Medellín, América de Cali (69.8%) wrong Pumas UNAM v Cruz Azul, Cruz Azul (49.7%) wrong Malaysia v Singapore, Malaysia (66.7%) correct China v Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia (92.8%) correct Denver Nuggets v Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets (62.8%) correct