How the model did: 55 of 98 right (56.1%) on 13 October 2026
98 settled matches, 55 correct picks, one real upset (Guo Hanyu over Sorana Cirstea) and the honest numbers behind them.
98 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 55 of them, a 56.1% hit rate for the day against a running 55.3% across 689 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Guo Hanyu null-null Sorana Cirstea
The model gave Sorana Cirstea 89.1% and Guo Hanyu only 10.9%. WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open result: Guo Hanyu null-null Sorana Cirstea. A 10.9% outcome should happen about once in every 9 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Boston Bruins at 54.8%
San Jose Sharks 3-6 Boston Bruins in the NHL. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos v AEK Athens | 0-0 | AEK Athens (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Casper Ruud v Felix Auger-Aliassime | null-null | Felix Auger-Aliassime (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Jasmine Paolini v Nikola Bartunkova | null-null | Nikola Bartunkova (60.3%) | Wrong |
| Yulia Putintseva v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (64.9%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Dayana Yastremska | null-null | Iva Jovic (76.5%) | Correct |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (60%) | Correct |
| San Jose Sharks v Boston Bruins | 3-6 | Boston Bruins (54.8%) | Correct |
| Sonay Kartal v Belinda Bencic | null-null | Belinda Bencic (56.4%) | Wrong |
| Magdalena Frech v Iga Swiatek | null-null | Iga Swiatek (83.2%) | Correct |
| Marie Bouzkova v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Marie Bouzkova (59%) | Wrong |
| Elina Svitolina v Liudmila Samsonova | null-null | Elina Svitolina (73.7%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Kings v Edmonton Oilers | 1-3 | Edmonton Oilers (65.9%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Golden State Warriors | 89-101 | Los Angeles Lakers (61.1%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento Kings v Portland Trail Blazers | 98-110 | Sacramento Kings (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Anaheim Ducks v Calgary Flames | 2-4 | Anaheim Ducks (83.2%) | Wrong |
| Millonarios v Once Caldas | 0-0 | Millonarios (64.2%) | Wrong |
| Mongolia v Myanmar | null-null | Mongolia (52.6%) | Wrong |
| Malaysia v China | null-null | Malaysia (92.8%) | Correct |
| Bahrain v Qatar | null-null | Bahrain (58.3%) | Wrong |
| Utah Mammoth v Toronto Maple Leafs | 5-4 | Utah Mammoth (59.3%) | Correct |
| Nashville Predators v Vegas Golden Knights | 2-5 | Vegas Golden Knights (51.2%) | Correct |
| Dallas Stars v Colorado Avalanche | 2-3 | Dallas Stars (51.6%) | Wrong |
| Winnipeg Jets v Minnesota Wild | 5-2 | Minnesota Wild (54.1%) | Wrong |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v Indiana Pacers | 114-112 | Oklahoma City Thunder (67.8%) | Correct |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Pittsburgh Penguins | 5-3 | Pittsburgh Penguins (70.5%) | Wrong |
| Tampa Bay Rays v Cleveland Guardians | 3-1 | Tampa Bay Rays (55.8%) | Correct |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks v Florida International Panthers | 27-24 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks (55.5%) | Correct |
| New York Islanders v Vancouver Canucks | 3-2 | New York Islanders (67.4%) | Correct |
| Atlético Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas | 1-1 | Atlético Bucaramanga (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Ottawa Senators v St. Louis Blues | 2-7 | Ottawa Senators (65.1%) | Wrong |
| New York Rangers v Tampa Bay Lightning | 4-1 | New York Rangers (55.7%) | Correct |
| Orlando Magic v Cleveland Cavaliers | 132-116 | Orlando Magic (55.9%) | Correct |
| Toronto Raptors v New York Knicks | 148-98 | Toronto Raptors (55.9%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Seattle Kraken | 2-3 | Seattle Kraken (85.6%) | Correct |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders v Delaware Blue Hens | 33-30 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (55.5%) | Correct |
| Carolina Hurricanes v Washington Capitals | 3-2 | Carolina Hurricanes (60.7%) | Correct |
| Montreal Canadiens v Buffalo Sabres | 4-3 | Montreal Canadiens (56.1%) | Correct |
| Columbus Blue Jackets v Florida Panthers | 3-7 | Columbus Blue Jackets (59%) | Wrong |
| Detroit Red Wings v New Jersey Devils | 4-5 | Detroit Red Wings (53.9%) | Wrong |
| Arsenal v Lille | 3-0 | Arsenal (88.6%) | Correct |
| Villarreal v Napoli | 3-1 | Villarreal (45.8%) | Correct |
| Stoke City v Middlesbrough | 2-3 | Middlesbrough (50.8%) | Correct |
| Galatasaray v Barcelona | 1-4 | Barcelona (63.3%) | Correct |
| Birmingham City v Preston North End | 4-0 | Birmingham City (58.9%) | Correct |
| RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 1-0 | PSV Eindhoven (60.8%) | Wrong |
| Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 3-3 | Bayern Munich (84.9%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2-0 | Manchester United (66.3%) | Wrong |
| Internazionale v Club Brugge | 3-4 | Internazionale (46.7%) | Wrong |
| Bristol City v Blackburn Rovers | 0-1 | Bristol City (44%) | Wrong |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton Wanderers | 1-3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers (68.6%) | Wrong |
| Wrexham v West Bromwich Albion | 1-2 | Wrexham (37.4%) | Wrong |
| Millwall v Swansea City | 0-1 | Swansea City (36.4%) | Correct |
| Burnley v Charlton Athletic | 2-2 | Burnley (56.3%) | Wrong |
| Cardiff City v Watford | 5-1 | Cardiff City (55.4%) | Correct |
| Bianca Andreescu v Mia Ristic | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (57.5%) | Correct |
| Lens v Sporting CP | 0-2 | Lens (37.5%) | Wrong |
| Sabah FK v Slavia Prague | 2-0 | Slavia Prague (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Lola Radivojevic v Teodora Kostovic | null-null | Teodora Kostovic (60.8%) | Correct |
| North West v Dolphins | null-null | Dolphins (64.7%) | Correct |
| United States of America v Namibia | null-null | United States of America (68.4%) | Wrong |
| Irene Burillo v Viktoria Morvayova | null-null | Irene Burillo (53.1%) | Correct |
| Gina Feistel v Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales | null-null | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales (73.2%) | Correct |
| Hubert Hurkacz v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | null-null | Hubert Hurkacz (51%) | Wrong |
| Aurora Zantedeschi v Fiona Ferro | null-null | Fiona Ferro (73.6%) | Correct |
| Rebeka Masarova v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Rebeka Masarova (62.6%) | Correct |
| Anouk Koevermans v Erika Andreeva | null-null | Erika Andreeva (50.4%) | Wrong |
| Pakistan v Sri Lanka | null-null | Pakistan (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Lucia Cortez Llorca v Ekaterine Gorgodze | null-null | Ekaterine Gorgodze (66.7%) | Wrong |
| Mia Pohankova v Wang Xiyu | null-null | Wang Xiyu (53.6%) | Wrong |
| Lea Boskovic v Oksana Selekhmeteva | null-null | Oksana Selekhmeteva (63.1%) | Wrong |
| Zhibek Kulambayeva v Francisca Jorge | null-null | Francisca Jorge (53.6%) | Correct |
| Anastasiia Sobolieva v Ane Mintegi Del Olmo | null-null | Ane Mintegi Del Olmo (50.9%) | Correct |
| Belinda Bencic v Zhang Shuai | null-null | Belinda Bencic (58.3%) | Correct |
| Martyna Kubka v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (78.4%) | Wrong |
| Antonia Ruzic v Anna Siskova | null-null | Antonia Ruzic (71.1%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Alexander Bublik | null-null | Alexander Zverev (74.2%) | Correct |
| Martina Colmegna v Francesca Jones | null-null | Francesca Jones (70.7%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Zheng Qinwen | null-null | Ann Li (57.8%) | Correct |
| Lisa Zaar v Matilde Jorge | null-null | Matilde Jorge (59.2%) | Correct |
| Tamara Zidansek v Despina Papamichail | null-null | Tamara Zidansek (60.2%) | Correct |
| Noemi Basiletti v Viktoria Hruncakova | null-null | Noemi Basiletti (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Jil Teichmann v Tessa Johanna Brockmann | null-null | Jil Teichmann (67%) | Correct |
| Daria Kasatkina v Jelena Ostapenko | null-null | Jelena Ostapenko (53.4%) | Correct |
| Maria Sakkari v Marta Kostyuk | null-null | Marta Kostyuk (71.3%) | Wrong |
| Daria Snigur v Elise Mertens | null-null | Elise Mertens (56.9%) | Wrong |
| Laura Pigossi v Nuria Brancaccio | null-null | Nuria Brancaccio (60.4%) | Correct |
| Lilli Tagger v Nikola Bartunkova | null-null | Nikola Bartunkova (72.7%) | Correct |
| Katie Boulter v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (65.5%) | Correct |
| Oman v Nepal | null-null | Nepal (58.3%) | Correct |
| Western Australia v Queensland | null-null | Western Australia (64.9%) | Wrong |
| Arthur Gea v Jakub Mensik | null-null | Arthur Gea (53.3%) | Correct |
| Guo Hanyu v Sorana Cirstea | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (89.1%) | Wrong |
| Yulia Putintseva v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Yulia Putintseva (50.5%) | Correct |
| Mayar Sherif v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Maja Chwalinska (53%) | Correct |
| Alex de Minaur v Karen Khachanov | null-null | Alex de Minaur (60.7%) | Correct |
| Katerina Siniakova v Liudmila Samsonova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (50.4%) | Wrong |
| Dayana Yastremska v Cristina Bucsa | null-null | Cristina Bucsa (55.4%) | Wrong |
| Kimberly Birrell v Katie Volynets | null-null | Katie Volynets (56.8%) | Correct |
By competition
- WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open: 12 of 21 correct
- NHL: 9 of 16 correct
- Champions League: 3 of 9 correct
- Championship: 4 of 8 correct
- WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace: 4 of 8 correct
- ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters: 4 of 6 correct
- WTA Lisboa Belem Open: 6 of 6 correct
- NBA: 3 of 5 correct
- WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships presented by Ecotrans Group: 4 of 5 correct
- Primera A: 0 of 2 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier A: 0 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 2 correct
- ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 55.3% (381 of 689). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more