How the model did: 45 of 83 right (54.2%) on 14 October 2026
83 settled matches, 45 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Atlético Junior) and the honest numbers behind them.
83 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 45 of them, a 54.2% hit rate for the day against a running 55.2% across 761 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: a draw 1-1 Atlético Junior
The model gave Atlético Junior 84.4% and the draw only 11.9%. Primera A result: Atlético Junior 1-1 Deportivo Pereira. A 11.9% outcome should happen about once in every 8 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Washington Capitals at 54.9%
Washington Capitals 5-3 Montreal Canadiens in the NHL. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos v AEK Athens | 0-0 | AEK Athens (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Arthur Gea v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | null-null | Arthur Gea (53.5%) | Wrong |
| Mia Pohankova v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (57.2%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Iva Jovic (69%) | Wrong |
| Elina Svitolina v Guo Hanyu | null-null | Elina Svitolina (87.9%) | Correct |
| Karolina Muchova v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Karolina Muchova (66.9%) | Wrong |
| LA Galaxy v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | LA Galaxy (44%) | Correct |
| LAFC v Austin FC | 3-1 | LAFC (55.8%) | Correct |
| San Diego FC v Houston Dynamo FC | 3-3 | San Diego FC (39.7%) | Wrong |
| LA Clippers v Denver Nuggets | 122-110 | LA Clippers (54.7%) | Correct |
| Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 | Real Salt Lake (47.4%) | Wrong |
| Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC | 2-2 | Colorado Rapids (40.3%) | Wrong |
| Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City | 4-0 | Nashville SC (70%) | Correct |
| Chicago Fire FC v Philadelphia Union | 1-3 | Philadelphia Union (38.2%) | Correct |
| FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1-0 | FC Dallas (43.4%) | Correct |
| St. Louis CITY SC v Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-0 | St. Louis CITY SC (41.7%) | Wrong |
| Colorado Avalanche v Dallas Stars | 2-3 | Colorado Avalanche (60.5%) | Wrong |
| San Antonio Spurs v Phoenix Suns | 123-103 | San Antonio Spurs (61%) | Correct |
| Minnesota Timberwolves v Detroit Pistons | 106-128 | Minnesota Timberwolves (55.1%) | Wrong |
| Milwaukee Bucks v Chicago Bulls | 104-125 | Milwaukee Bucks (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v New Orleans Pelicans | 97-101 | Dallas Mavericks (57.4%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers | 2-6 | Los Angeles Dodgers (52.6%) | Wrong |
| Sam Houston Bearkats v Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 3-16 | Sam Houston Bearkats (55.5%) | Wrong |
| CF Montréal v Atlanta United FC | 0-3 | CF Montréal (38.2%) | Wrong |
| Columbus Crew v Charlotte FC | 3-1 | Columbus Crew (47.4%) | Correct |
| D.C. United v Red Bull New York | 2-1 | D.C. United (49.5%) | Correct |
| FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 2-3 | FC Cincinnati (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 2-0 | Inter Miami CF (60.5%) | Correct |
| Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 3-3 | Orlando City SC (37.4%) | Wrong |
| Boston Celtics v Charlotte Hornets | 114-93 | Boston Celtics (60.1%) | Correct |
| Miami Heat v Brooklyn Nets | 144-128 | Miami Heat (63.4%) | Correct |
| Washington Capitals v Montreal Canadiens | 5-3 | Washington Capitals (54.9%) | Correct |
| Missouri State Bears v Kennesaw State Owls | 24-21 | Missouri State Bears (55.5%) | Correct |
| Sarmiento (Junín) v River Plate | 1-1 | River Plate (60.5%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Junior v Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 | Atlético Junior (84.4%) | Wrong |
| Aston Villa v Fenerbahce | 6-0 | Aston Villa (64.2%) | Correct |
| Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund | 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund (42.3%) | Wrong |
| Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgart | 0-3 | VfB Stuttgart (75.6%) | Correct |
| Lincoln City v West Ham United | 0-6 | West Ham United (60.5%) | Correct |
| Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens | 3-1 | AEK Athens (45.1%) | Wrong |
| AS Roma v Real Madrid | 3-4 | Real Madrid (56%) | Correct |
| Manchester City v Paris Saint-Germain | 2-4 | Paris Saint-Germain (50.9%) | Correct |
| Real Betis v FC Porto | 3-2 | Real Betis (38%) | Correct |
| Norwich City v Southampton | 0-1 | Norwich City (38.8%) | Wrong |
| Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 3-2 | Portsmouth (40.9%) | Correct |
| Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 4-1 | Queens Park Rangers (56.7%) | Correct |
| Lisa Pigato v Lucie Havlickova | null-null | Lisa Pigato (51.4%) | Wrong |
| LASK Linz v Liverpool | 3-6 | Liverpool (73.8%) | Correct |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam v Como | 3-2 | Como (49.2%) | Wrong |
| Harmony Tan v Lucrezia Stefanini | null-null | Lucrezia Stefanini (59.6%) | Correct |
| Western Province v Boland | null-null | Boland (57.9%) | Wrong |
| Shi Han v Leylah Fernandez | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (71.4%) | Correct |
| Jil Teichmann v Lucia Bronzetti | null-null | Jil Teichmann (57.1%) | Correct |
| India v West Indies | null-null | India (74.4%) | Wrong |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro v Irene Burillo | null-null | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (69.2%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Zizou Bergs | null-null | Tommy Paul (66.9%) | Correct |
| Aryna Sabalenka v Ann Li | null-null | Aryna Sabalenka (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Ashlyn Krueger v Lanlana Tararudee | null-null | Lanlana Tararudee (52.5%) | Wrong |
| Gabriela Knutson v Susan Bandecchi | null-null | Gabriela Knutson (64.8%) | Correct |
| Ariana Geerlings v Lucia Cortez Llorca | null-null | Ariana Geerlings (56.6%) | Correct |
| Daniil Medvedev v Stefanos Tsitsipas | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (58%) | Correct |
| Selena Janicijevic v Fiona Ferro | null-null | Fiona Ferro (73.2%) | Correct |
| Polona Hercog v Jazmin Ortenzi | null-null | Jazmin Ortenzi (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Carole Monnet v Elizara Yaneva | null-null | Elizara Yaneva (57.7%) | Correct |
| Jelena Ostapenko v Jessica Pegula | null-null | Jessica Pegula (83.1%) | Wrong |
| Marina Bassols Ribera v Francesca Curmi | null-null | Marina Bassols Ribera (55.4%) | Wrong |
| Katie Volynets v Guo Hanyu | null-null | Katie Volynets (77.6%) | Wrong |
| Casper Ruud v Felix Auger-Aliassime | null-null | Felix Auger-Aliassime (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Janice Tjen v Daria Snigur | null-null | Daria Snigur (69.9%) | Wrong |
| Maldives v Saudi Arabia | null-null | Saudi Arabia (88.8%) | Correct |
| Hong Kong v Singapore | null-null | Hong Kong (76%) | Correct |
| Bhutan v Thailand | null-null | Bhutan (51%) | Wrong |
| Jasmine Paolini v Nikola Bartunkova | null-null | Nikola Bartunkova (60.3%) | Wrong |
| Yulia Putintseva v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (64.9%) | Correct |
| Karolina Muchova v Catherine McNally | null-null | Karolina Muchova (75.6%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Dayana Yastremska | null-null | Iva Jovic (76.5%) | Correct |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (60%) | Correct |
| Australia Women v Bangladesh Women | null-null | Australia Women (96.8%) | Correct |
| San Jose Sharks v Boston Bruins | 3-6 | Boston Bruins (54.8%) | Correct |
| Sonay Kartal v Belinda Bencic | null-null | Belinda Bencic (56.4%) | Wrong |
| Magdalena Frech v Iga Swiatek | null-null | Iga Swiatek (83.2%) | Correct |
| Marie Bouzkova v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Marie Bouzkova (59%) | Wrong |
| Elina Svitolina v Liudmila Samsonova | null-null | Elina Svitolina (73.7%) | Correct |
By competition
- WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open: 8 of 18 correct
- MLS: 8 of 15 correct
- Champions League: 6 of 9 correct
- NBA: 4 of 7 correct
- ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters: 3 of 5 correct
- Championship: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace: 3 of 4 correct
- NHL: 2 of 3 correct
- WTA Lisboa Belem Open: 2 of 3 correct
- WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships: 2 of 3 correct
- NCAA Football: 1 of 2 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier B: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 55.2% (420 of 761). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more