How the model did: 56 of 88 right (63.6%) on 15 October 2026
88 settled matches, 56 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over NEC Nijmegen) and the honest numbers behind them.
88 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 56 of them, a 63.6% hit rate for the day against a running 56.1% across 839 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: a draw 1-1 NEC Nijmegen
The model gave NEC Nijmegen 63.1% and the draw only 18.6%. Europa League result: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia. A 18.6% outcome should happen about once in every 5 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Dominika Salkova at 54.7%
Dominika Salkova null-null Viktoria Hruncakova in the WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atromitos v AEK Athens | 0-0 | AEK Athens (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Elina Svitolina v Sonay Kartal | null-null | Elina Svitolina (64.9%) | Wrong |
| Diana Shnaider v Jelena Ostapenko | null-null | Diana Shnaider (63.6%) | Wrong |
| Vegas Golden Knights v Calgary Flames | 6-2 | Vegas Golden Knights (81.1%) | Correct |
| Edmonton Oilers v Utah Mammoth | 2-4 | Edmonton Oilers (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Houston Rockets v Oklahoma City Thunder | 116-89 | Houston Rockets (55%) | Correct |
| Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks | 17-14 | Denver Broncos (52.1%) | Correct |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Winnipeg Jets | 4-3 | Winnipeg Jets (64.5%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Wild v St. Louis Blues | 5-4 | Minnesota Wild (57.9%) | Correct |
| Nashville Predators v San Jose Sharks | 2-3 | Nashville Predators (57.3%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers | 4-6 | Los Angeles Dodgers (52.6%) | Wrong |
| Texas State Bobcats v Colorado State Rams | 66-27 | Texas State Bobcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Detroit Red Wings v Philadelphia Flyers | 2-1 | Detroit Red Wings (89.2%) | Correct |
| New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors | 122-120 | New York Knicks (59%) | Correct |
| UAB Blazers v East Carolina Pirates | 30-17 | UAB Blazers (63.6%) | Correct |
| Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 1-2 | Huracán (36.1%) | Wrong |
| New Jersey Devils v New York Rangers | 7-1 | New York Rangers (60.9%) | Wrong |
| Florida Panthers v Vancouver Canucks | 3-2 | Florida Panthers (68.6%) | Correct |
| Toronto Maple Leafs v Buffalo Sabres | 4-5 | Toronto Maple Leafs (58.4%) | Wrong |
| Ottawa Senators v New York Islanders | 2-1 | Ottawa Senators (56.8%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Lightning v Seattle Kraken | 4-3 | Tampa Bay Lightning (51.2%) | Correct |
| Benfica v Celtic | 4-1 | Benfica (87.1%) | Correct |
| Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjælland | 1-1 | FC Nordsjælland (37.6%) | Wrong |
| Stade Rennais v OFI Crete | 2-1 | Stade Rennais (91.2%) | Correct |
| TSG Hoffenheim v Besiktas | 2-3 | TSG Hoffenheim (65.5%) | Wrong |
| Celta Vigo v Juventus | 1-2 | Juventus (72.4%) | Correct |
| Ferencvaros v Viktoria Plzen | 2-1 | Ferencvaros (51%) | Correct |
| Marseille v Olympiacos | 0-1 | Olympiacos (45.5%) | Correct |
| FC Twente v FC Thun | 1-0 | FC Twente (68.2%) | Correct |
| Sint-Truidense v Iberia 1999 | 2-0 | Sint-Truidense (65.9%) | Correct |
| SK Brann v Lincoln Red Imps | 2-1 | SK Brann (81.4%) | Correct |
| AFC Bournemouth v SK Sturm Graz | 3-0 | AFC Bournemouth (91%) | Correct |
| NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia | 1-1 | NEC Nijmegen (63.1%) | Wrong |
| F.C. København v Braga | 3-0 | F.C. København (43.4%) | Correct |
| SC Freiburg v Jablonec | 3-2 | SC Freiburg (64%) | Correct |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok v Ararat-Armenia | 3-1 | Jagiellonia Bialystok (74.2%) | Correct |
| Atalanta v Pafos | 3-1 | Atalanta (42%) | Correct |
| Brighton & Hove Albion v Kauno Zalgiris | 4-0 | Brighton & Hove Albion (42%) | Correct |
| Mansfield Town v Oxford United | 1-1 | Mansfield Town (44.4%) | Wrong |
| Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht | 1-0 | Dinamo Zagreb (47.7%) | Correct |
| Antonia Ruzic v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (50.2%) | Correct |
| Cleveland Guardians v Tampa Bay Rays | 3-2 | Cleveland Guardians (50.2%) | Correct |
| CSU Craiova v Getafe | 1-1 | CSU Craiova (35.4%) | Wrong |
| RB Salzburg v AC Milan | 0-4 | AC Milan (56.6%) | Correct |
| Mjällby AIF v Inter D'Escaldes | 2-0 | Mjällby AIF (58.3%) | Correct |
| Sparta Prague v Lillestrom | 1-1 | Sparta Prague (70.7%) | Wrong |
| Egnatia v FC Midtjylland | 1-1 | Egnatia (42%) | Wrong |
| Riga FC v Kairat Almaty | 1-1 | Riga FC (48.9%) | Wrong |
| NK Celje v Omonia Nicosia | 0-3 | Omonia Nicosia (52.3%) | Correct |
| Union St.-Gilloise v Real Sociedad | 1-1 | Real Sociedad (39.7%) | Wrong |
| KAA Gent v AGF | 1-0 | KAA Gent (53.7%) | Correct |
| AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er | 2-1 | AZ Alkmaar (74.4%) | Correct |
| Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen | 0-4 | Bayer Leverkusen (79.4%) | Correct |
| Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka | 2-1 | Panathinaikos (90.1%) | Correct |
| Lyon v Crystal Palace | 3-2 | Crystal Palace (43.4%) | Wrong |
| Torreense v Sunderland | 1-2 | Sunderland (78%) | Correct |
| CSKA Sofia v AS Monaco | 1-2 | AS Monaco (51.2%) | Correct |
| FC Lugano v Red Star Belgrade | 3-2 | FC Lugano (44.7%) | Correct |
| KuPS Kuopio v Trabzonspor | 2-4 | Trabzonspor (50.5%) | Correct |
| Hajduk Split v Ajax Amsterdam | 2-1 | Ajax Amsterdam (45.4%) | Wrong |
| Al Hazem v Al Fateh | 2-3 | Al Hazem (35.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Khaleej v Al Fayha | 2-0 | Al Khaleej (42.8%) | Correct |
| Anouk Koevermans v Lea Boskovic | null-null | Anouk Koevermans (55.7%) | Wrong |
| Francisca Jorge v Francesca Jones | null-null | Francesca Jones (68.6%) | Correct |
| Al Faisaly v Al Kholood | 3-2 | Al Kholood (50.3%) | Wrong |
| Ann Li v Janice Tjen | null-null | Ann Li (63.5%) | Correct |
| Dominika Salkova v Viktoria Hruncakova | null-null | Dominika Salkova (54.7%) | Correct |
| Ashlyn Krueger v Iga Swiatek | null-null | Iga Swiatek (80.4%) | Correct |
| Lucie Nguyen Tan v Laura Samson | null-null | Lucie Nguyen Tan (52%) | Wrong |
| Bulgaria Women v Sweden Women | null-null | Sweden Women (94.3%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Alex de Minaur | null-null | Alexander Zverev (67.4%) | Correct |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz v Raluka Serban | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (68.4%) | Correct |
| Teodora Kostovic v Martyna Kubka | null-null | Teodora Kostovic (62.3%) | Wrong |
| Dalma Galfi v Matilde Jorge | null-null | Dalma Galfi (57.8%) | Correct |
| Jasmine Paolini v Sonay Kartal | null-null | Sonay Kartal (51.2%) | Correct |
| Andrea Lazaro Garcia v Nuria Brancaccio | null-null | Andrea Lazaro Garcia (61.8%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Jelena Ostapenko | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (55.9%) | Wrong |
| Austria Women v Sweden Women | null-null | Sweden Women (68.6%) | Correct |
| Arthur Gea v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | null-null | Arthur Gea (53.5%) | Wrong |
| Mia Pohankova v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (57.2%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Iva Jovic (69%) | Wrong |
| Oman v Canada | null-null | Oman (65.4%) | Wrong |
| Elina Svitolina v Guo Hanyu | null-null | Elina Svitolina (87.9%) | Correct |
| Karolina Muchova v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Karolina Muchova (66.9%) | Wrong |
| LA Galaxy v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | LA Galaxy (44%) | Correct |
| LAFC v Austin FC | 3-1 | LAFC (55.8%) | Correct |
| San Diego FC v Houston Dynamo FC | 3-3 | San Diego FC (39.7%) | Wrong |
| LA Clippers v Denver Nuggets | 122-110 | LA Clippers (54.7%) | Correct |
By competition
- Europa League: 13 of 18 correct
- Conference League: 13 of 18 correct
- NHL: 6 of 11 correct
- WTA Dongfeng Voyah Wuhan Open: 5 of 10 correct
- WTA RoveretOpen Città della Pace: 2 of 4 correct
- NBA: 3 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 1 of 3 correct
- WTA Lisboa Belem Open: 3 of 3 correct
- MLS: 2 of 3 correct
- MLB: 1 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 2 correct
- WTA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Women's Championships: 1 of 2 correct
- ECA Women's European Cup 2026/27: 2 of 2 correct
- ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.1% (471 of 839). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more