How the model did: 39 of 61 right (63.9%) on 19 October 2026
61 settled matches, 39 correct picks, one real upset (Philadelphia Flyers over Colorado Avalanche) and the honest numbers behind them.
61 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 39 of them, a 63.9% hit rate for the day against a running 56.3% across 960 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: Philadelphia Flyers 3-2 Colorado Avalanche
The model gave Colorado Avalanche 91.7% and Philadelphia Flyers only 8.3%. NHL result: Philadelphia Flyers 3-2 Colorado Avalanche. A 8.3% outcome should happen about once in every 12 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Sonay Kartal at 54.2%
Sonay Kartal null-null Kimberly Birrell in the WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jelena Ostapenko v Belinda Bencic | null-null | Belinda Bencic (56.4%) | Correct |
| Mariano Navone v Juan Manuel Cerundolo | null-null | Mariano Navone (50.1%) | Correct |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas v Aleksandar Kovacevic | null-null | Stefanos Tsitsipas (76%) | Correct |
| Australia Women v New Zealand Women | null-null | Australia Women (90%) | Correct |
| Katerina Siniakova v Peyton Stearns | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (57.3%) | Correct |
| Jasmine Paolini v Anhelina Kalinina | null-null | Jasmine Paolini (66.8%) | Correct |
| Cristina Bucsa v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Cristina Bucsa (51%) | Wrong |
| Sonay Kartal v Kimberly Birrell | null-null | Sonay Kartal (54.2%) | Correct |
| Terence Atmane v Rinky Hijikata | null-null | Rinky Hijikata (51.4%) | Wrong |
| Sho Shimabukuro v Roman Safiullin | null-null | Roman Safiullin (77.5%) | Wrong |
| Maya Joint v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (51.7%) | Correct |
| Moyuka Uchijima v Ena Shibahara | null-null | Moyuka Uchijima (66.1%) | Correct |
| Sara Bejlek v Wang Xiyu | null-null | Sara Bejlek (73%) | Correct |
| Yulia Putintseva v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (66%) | Correct |
| Katie Boulter v Himeno Sakatsume | null-null | Katie Boulter (62.7%) | Correct |
| Paula Badosa v Antonia Ruzic | null-null | Paula Badosa (67.9%) | Wrong |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova v Mary Stoiana | null-null | Mary Stoiana (55.1%) | Correct |
| Sydney Thunder Women v Sydney Sixers Women | null-null | Sydney Thunder Women (59.4%) | Wrong |
| Tereza Valentova v Zhang Shuai | null-null | Tereza Valentova (66.4%) | Correct |
| Claire Liu v Magda Linette | null-null | Claire Liu (55.9%) | Wrong |
| Ann Li v Emerson Jones | null-null | Ann Li (73%) | Correct |
| Deportivo Pasto v Alianza FC | 0-1 | Deportivo Pasto (67.6%) | Wrong |
| Utah Mammoth v Pittsburgh Penguins | 5-4 | Utah Mammoth (61.2%) | Correct |
| Deportivo Riestra v Unión (Santa Fe) | 1-1 | Deportivo Riestra (41.9%) | Wrong |
| San Francisco 49ers v Washington Commanders | 23-17 | San Francisco 49ers (59.7%) | Correct |
| Golden State Valkyries v Atlanta Dream | 65-79 | Golden State Valkyries (54.5%) | Wrong |
| Tampa Bay Rays v Cleveland Guardians | 7-3 | Tampa Bay Rays (55.8%) | Correct |
| Toronto Maple Leafs v San Jose Sharks | 3-1 | Toronto Maple Leafs (57.4%) | Correct |
| Corinthians v Vitória | 1-1 | Corinthians (61%) | Wrong |
| New York Rangers v Anaheim Ducks | 5-2 | New York Rangers (57.1%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Colorado Avalanche | 3-2 | Colorado Avalanche (91.7%) | Wrong |
| Newell's Old Boys v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | 2-1 | Newell's Old Boys (46.2%) | Correct |
| Sarmiento (Junín) v Barracas Central | 1-1 | Sarmiento (Junín) (42.3%) | Wrong |
| Braga v Gil Vicente | 1-2 | Braga (60.1%) | Wrong |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | 3-1 | Tottenham Hotspur (69.7%) | Correct |
| Getafe v Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano (42%) | Wrong |
| Parma v Torino | 0-3 | Torino (43.8%) | Correct |
| Rodez Aveyron v Montpellier | 0-3 | Montpellier (47%) | Correct |
| RC Celta Fortuna v Tenerife | 1-1 | RC Celta Fortuna (46.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Hilal v Al Hazem | 1-0 | Al Hilal (91.3%) | Correct |
| Al Shabab v Al Faisaly | 2-2 | Al Shabab (70.4%) | Wrong |
| Trabzonspor v Besiktas | 2-0 | Besiktas (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Viborg FF v FC Midtjylland | 1-2 | FC Midtjylland (41.6%) | Correct |
| Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | 1-2 | Kalmar FF (48.9%) | Correct |
| Lorenzo Sonego v Moise Kouame | null-null | Lorenzo Sonego (65.5%) | Wrong |
| Monza v Cagliari | 4-0 | Monza (42.5%) | Correct |
| Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (70.9%) | Correct |
| Al Fayha v Al Ahli | 2-3 | Al Ahli (79.4%) | Correct |
| Mikhail Kukushkin v Stefanos Sakellaridis | null-null | Stefanos Sakellaridis (68.8%) | Wrong |
| Andrea Guerrieri v Alex Michelsen | null-null | Alex Michelsen (62%) | Correct |
| Yannick Hanfmann v Martin Damm | null-null | Yannick Hanfmann (62.2%) | Wrong |
| Alexandra Eala v Diane Parry | null-null | Alexandra Eala (65.4%) | Correct |
| Marin Cilic v Nikoloz Basilashvili | null-null | Marin Cilic (50.7%) | Wrong |
| Federico Cina v Jaume Munar | null-null | Jaume Munar (65.7%) | Correct |
| Kamilla Rakhimova v Marie Bouzkova | null-null | Marie Bouzkova (59.9%) | Correct |
| Daria Kasatkina v Aliaksandra Sasnovich | null-null | Aliaksandra Sasnovich (52.2%) | Correct |
| Adrian Mannarino v Aleksandar Vukic | null-null | Adrian Mannarino (66.1%) | Correct |
| Sorana Cirstea v Shi Han | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (73.9%) | Correct |
| Miomir Kecmanovic v James Duckworth | null-null | James Duckworth (53.7%) | Correct |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante v Facundo Diaz Acosta | null-null | Thiago Agustin Tirante (78.1%) | Wrong |
| Ashlyn Krueger v Janice Tjen | null-null | Ashlyn Krueger (56.5%) | Correct |
By competition
- WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open: 9 of 11 correct
- WTA BNB Ningbo Open: 8 of 9 correct
- ATP Almaty Open: 3 of 8 correct
- ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open: 3 of 4 correct
- NHL: 3 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 1 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 2 of 3 correct
- Serie A: 2 of 2 correct
- ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.3% (540 of 960). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more