How the model did: 48 of 75 right (64%) on 21 October 2026
75 settled matches, 48 correct picks, one real upset (V-Varen Nagasaki over Sanfrecce Hiroshima) and the honest numbers behind them.
75 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 48 of them, a 64% hit rate for the day against a running 56.4% across 1126 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
The model gave Sanfrecce Hiroshima 75.3% and V-Varen Nagasaki only 5.6%. J1 League result: V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. A 5.6% outcome should happen about once in every 18 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Terence Atmane at 54.7%
Terence Atmane null-null Mattia Bellucci in the ATP Almaty Open. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Elena Rybakina (87.4%) | Correct |
| Alexandra Eala v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (53%) | Correct |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (64%) | Correct |
| Katarzyna Kawa v Belinda Bencic | null-null | Belinda Bencic (74.8%) | Wrong |
| Magda Linette v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (62.8%) | Correct |
| Terence Atmane v Mattia Bellucci | null-null | Terence Atmane (54.7%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Jasmine Paolini | null-null | Iva Jovic (59%) | Correct |
| Mary Stoiana v Moyuka Uchijima | null-null | Mary Stoiana (66.3%) | Correct |
| Pachuca v Cruz Azul | 1-2 | Cruz Azul (44.1%) | Correct |
| Santos v Pumas UNAM | 2-0 | Santos (40.7%) | Correct |
| Antonia Ruzic v Kayla Day | null-null | Antonia Ruzic (56%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Ann Li (61.6%) | Correct |
| LA Clippers v Sacramento Kings | 121-96 | LA Clippers (62.6%) | Correct |
| Portland Trail Blazers v Phoenix Suns | 124-83 | Portland Trail Blazers (56.7%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Golden State Warriors | 127-105 | Los Angeles Lakers (61.1%) | Correct |
| Independiente Santa Fe v Jaguares de Córdoba | 2-1 | Independiente Santa Fe (89.8%) | Correct |
| Puebla v Monterrey | 1-4 | Monterrey (54.1%) | Correct |
| Atlas v América | 2-5 | América (49%) | Correct |
| Toluca v Tijuana | 2-2 | Toluca (66.8%) | Wrong |
| Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks | 128-110 | Houston Rockets (63.6%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries | 97-71 | Atlanta Dream (60.3%) | Correct |
| Memphis Grizzlies v Utah Jazz | 123-103 | Memphis Grizzlies (58.3%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Pelicans v Indiana Pacers | 120-123 | New Orleans Pelicans (59.5%) | Wrong |
| Sam Houston Bearkats v New Mexico State Aggies | 24-30 | Sam Houston Bearkats (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Buffalo Sabres v Philadelphia Flyers | 1-3 | Buffalo Sabres (73.2%) | Wrong |
| Brooklyn Nets v Charlotte Hornets | 103-110 | Brooklyn Nets (51%) | Wrong |
| Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves | 106-131 | Miami Heat (56.1%) | Wrong |
| Toronto Raptors v Chicago Bulls | 135-92 | Toronto Raptors (61.1%) | Correct |
| Ottawa Senators v Florida Panthers | 5-1 | Ottawa Senators (51.9%) | Correct |
| Llaneros FC v Deportivo Cali | 0-3 | Deportivo Cali (48%) | Correct |
| FC Cincinnati v D.C. United | 2-1 | FC Cincinnati (52.2%) | Correct |
| Washington Wizards v Milwaukee Bucks | 128-116 | Washington Wizards (53.1%) | Correct |
| Orlando Magic v Atlanta Hawks | 125-132 | Orlando Magic (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Benjamin Bonzi v Tommy Paul | null-null | Tommy Paul (66.6%) | Correct |
| Bayern Munich v Arsenal | 2-2 | Bayern Munich (41.7%) | Wrong |
| Club Brugge v Lens | 3-0 | Club Brugge (59.5%) | Correct |
| Real Betis v Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1-0 | Real Betis (57.5%) | Correct |
| Internazionale v Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-0 | Internazionale (89%) | Correct |
| Real Madrid v RB Leipzig | 4-1 | Real Madrid (86.1%) | Correct |
| Reading v Leyton Orient | 1-0 | Reading (66.8%) | Correct |
| Aston Villa v Viking FK | 3-1 | Aston Villa (85.9%) | Correct |
| Sporting CP v LASK Linz | 2-3 | Sporting CP (73.5%) | Wrong |
| Gauthier Onclin v Jan-Lennard Struff | null-null | Jan-Lennard Struff (73.8%) | Correct |
| Levante v Athletic Club | 3-1 | Athletic Club (49.2%) | Wrong |
| Moise Kouame v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (82.2%) | Correct |
| Lille v Galatasaray | 2-4 | Lille (36.8%) | Wrong |
| Como v Manchester United | 4-1 | Como (38.7%) | Correct |
| David Goffin v Remy Bertola | null-null | David Goffin (50%) | Correct |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas v Mikhail Kukushkin | null-null | Stefanos Tsitsipas (86.5%) | Correct |
| Clement Chidekh v Jacob Fearnley | null-null | Jacob Fearnley (53.3%) | Wrong |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova v Marta Kostyuk | null-null | Marta Kostyuk (66%) | Wrong |
| Nigeria v Zambia | null-null | Nigeria (69.2%) | Correct |
| Stan Wawrinka v Martin Landaluce | null-null | Stan Wawrinka (51.3%) | Correct |
| Mariano Navone v Tallon Griekspoor | null-null | Mariano Navone (54%) | Wrong |
| Sorana Cirstea v Sara Bejlek | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (63.3%) | Wrong |
| Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 3-2 | Urawa Red Diamonds (71.6%) | Correct |
| Adrian Mannarino v Andrey Rublev | null-null | Andrey Rublev (60.5%) | Wrong |
| Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock | 2-0 | Fagiano Okayama (70.4%) | Correct |
| FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol | 0-0 | FC Tokyo (56.5%) | Wrong |
| Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka | 1-2 | Avispa Fukuoka (38.2%) | Wrong |
| Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 | Nagoya Grampus (43.1%) | Wrong |
| Shimizu S-Pulse v Machida Zelvia | 0-5 | Machida Zelvia (58.2%) | Correct |
| Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe | 2-1 | Vissel Kobe (50.9%) | Wrong |
| V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (75.3%) | Wrong |
| Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy 1969 | 2-2 | Yokohama F. Marinos (48.5%) | Wrong |
| Kyoto Sanga v Kashima Antlers | 2-2 | Kashima Antlers (61.8%) | Wrong |
| Martin Damm v Francisco Cerundolo | null-null | Francisco Cerundolo (71.1%) | Correct |
| Dino Prizmic v Damir Dzumhur | null-null | Dino Prizmic (64.2%) | Wrong |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta v Nikoloz Basilashvili | null-null | Nikoloz Basilashvili (68.4%) | Correct |
| Lesotho v Uganda | null-null | Uganda (96.8%) | Correct |
| Gambia v Mozambique | null-null | Mozambique (62.2%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Aliaksandra Sasnovich | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (62.8%) | Correct |
| James Duckworth v Luciano Darderi | null-null | Luciano Darderi (61.4%) | Wrong |
| Mattia Bellucci v Tomas Martin Etcheverry | null-null | Tomas Martin Etcheverry (53.8%) | Wrong |
| Katie Boulter v Viktorija Golubic | null-null | Katie Boulter (52.2%) | Correct |
By competition
- NBA: 7 of 11 correct
- J1 League: 3 of 10 correct
- Champions League: 6 of 9 correct
- WTA BNB Ningbo Open: 4 of 7 correct
- ATP Almaty Open: 3 of 6 correct
- ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open: 3 of 6 correct
- WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open: 5 of 5 correct
- Liga MX: 4 of 5 correct
- ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 3 of 3 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C: 3 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 2 correct
- NHL: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.4% (635 of 1126). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more