How the model did: 58 of 87 right (66.7%) on 22 October 2026
87 settled matches, 58 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Brighton & Hove Albion) and the honest numbers behind them.
87 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 58 of them, a 66.7% hit rate for the day against a running 56.7% across 1201 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: a draw 0-0 Jablonec
The model gave Brighton & Hove Albion 83.6% and the draw only 13.5%. Conference League result: Jablonec 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion. A 13.5% outcome should happen about once in every 7 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Terence Atmane at 54.7%
Terence Atmane null-null Mattia Bellucci in the ATP Almaty Open. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikoloz Basilashvili v Adrian Mannarino | null-null | Adrian Mannarino (50.3%) | Wrong |
| Mary Stoiana v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (54.4%) | Correct |
| Talia Gibson v Ashlyn Krueger | null-null | Ashlyn Krueger (57.5%) | Correct |
| Sara Bejlek v Marie Bouzkova | null-null | Marie Bouzkova (51.3%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Lilli Tagger | null-null | Ann Li (61.3%) | Correct |
| Vancouver Canucks v Detroit Red Wings | 2-5 | Detroit Red Wings (59.5%) | Correct |
| Seattle Kraken v Utah Mammoth | 5-3 | Seattle Kraken (53.1%) | Correct |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets | 96-84 | Oklahoma City Thunder (59.5%) | Correct |
| Atlético Nacional v Deportivo Pasto | 3-0 | Atlético Nacional (68.7%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Minnesota Wild | 2-1 | Minnesota Wild (74.1%) | Wrong |
| Edmonton Oilers v Carolina Hurricanes | 6-5 | Edmonton Oilers (55.3%) | Correct |
| Chicago Bears v New England Patriots | 30-24 | Chicago Bears (49.4%) | Correct |
| St. Louis Blues v Vegas Golden Knights | 6-2 | Vegas Golden Knights (54.2%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Stars v Winnipeg Jets | 3-2 | Dallas Stars (61.8%) | Correct |
| New York Islanders v Los Angeles Kings | 2-3 | New York Islanders (73.9%) | Wrong |
| Memphis Tigers v East Carolina Pirates | 41-34 | Memphis Tigers (63.6%) | Correct |
| New Jersey Devils v Anaheim Ducks | 4-1 | New Jersey Devils (58%) | Correct |
| Boston Bruins v Nashville Predators | 6-0 | Boston Bruins (63.3%) | Correct |
| Ottawa Senators v San Jose Sharks | 2-6 | Ottawa Senators (63.5%) | Wrong |
| Pittsburgh Penguins v Florida Panthers | 4-0 | Florida Panthers (54.7%) | Wrong |
| Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Rangers | 5-4 | New York Rangers (50.8%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia 76ers v Cleveland Cavaliers | 114-106 | Philadelphia 76ers (55.9%) | Correct |
| Kennesaw State Owls v Liberty Flames | 6-34 | Kennesaw State Owls (55.5%) | Wrong |
| App State Mountaineers v James Madison Dukes | 34-31 | App State Mountaineers (85.5%) | Correct |
| Lillestrom v Real Sociedad | 0-6 | Real Sociedad (73.1%) | Correct |
| Olympiacos v Sparta Prague | 1-0 | Olympiacos (75%) | Correct |
| Celtic v Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Celtic (37.4%) | Wrong |
| Viktoria Plzen v Levski Sofia | 1-2 | Viktoria Plzen (60.3%) | Wrong |
| Ajax Amsterdam v Atalanta | 2-0 | Ajax Amsterdam (57.6%) | Correct |
| Borac Banja Luka v KuPS Kuopio | 2-0 | Borac Banja Luka (70.3%) | Correct |
| Braga v KAA Gent | 2-0 | Braga (69.7%) | Correct |
| FC Midtjylland v Sint-Truidense | 0-1 | Sint-Truidense (55.2%) | Correct |
| FC Thun v Hajduk Split | 0-1 | Hajduk Split (50.9%) | Correct |
| Lincoln Red Imps v FC Twente | 1-4 | FC Twente (84.6%) | Correct |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok v Anderlecht | 0-3 | Anderlecht (50.6%) | Correct |
| NK Celje v RB Salzburg | 2-2 | RB Salzburg (64.5%) | Wrong |
| Omonia Nicosia v Benfica | 1-4 | Omonia Nicosia (38.5%) | Wrong |
| AGF v Egnatia | 1-1 | Egnatia (43.4%) | Wrong |
| AS Monaco v SC Freiburg | 3-0 | AS Monaco (40.6%) | Correct |
| AFC Bournemouth v AC Milan | 3-0 | AFC Bournemouth (54.2%) | Correct |
| Besiktas v Crystal Palace | 2-2 | Besiktas (40.1%) | Wrong |
| TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon | 3-0 | TSG Hoffenheim (71.7%) | Correct |
| Kyrian Jacquet v Brandon Nakashima | null-null | Brandon Nakashima (64.8%) | Correct |
| Flavio Cobolli v Stan Wawrinka | null-null | Flavio Cobolli (71.8%) | Correct |
| Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar | 0-4 | AZ Alkmaar (74.9%) | Correct |
| Ferencvaros v Torreense | 4-1 | Ferencvaros (77.8%) | Correct |
| Lech Poznan v Sunderland | 1-1 | Sunderland (62.8%) | Wrong |
| OFI Crete v Bayer Leverkusen | 0-2 | Bayer Leverkusen (62.1%) | Correct |
| Inter D'Escaldes v CSU Craiova | 1-3 | CSU Craiova (72.4%) | Correct |
| SK Sturm Graz v Marseille | 1-0 | Marseille (49.8%) | Wrong |
| Jablonec v Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-0 | Brighton & Hove Albion (83.6%) | Wrong |
| Kauno Zalgiris v SK Brann | 1-4 | SK Brann (64.1%) | Correct |
| Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen | 2-4 | Dinamo Zagreb (62.8%) | Wrong |
| Getafe v FC Lugano | 2-5 | Getafe (48.6%) | Wrong |
| Iberia 1999 v Mjällby AIF | 1-1 | Mjällby AIF (44%) | Wrong |
| Pafos v Riga FC | 1-1 | Pafos (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Red Star Belgrade v F.C. København | 2-2 | Red Star Belgrade (55%) | Wrong |
| Juventus v Stade Rennais | 2-2 | Juventus (73%) | Wrong |
| Union St.-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er | 4-0 | Union St.-Gilloise (70%) | Correct |
| FC Nordsjælland v CSKA Sofia | 2-2 | FC Nordsjælland (76.9%) | Wrong |
| Trabzonspor v Heart of Midlothian | 2-0 | Trabzonspor (81.1%) | Correct |
| Damir Dzumhur v Zizou Bergs | null-null | Zizou Bergs (68.3%) | Correct |
| Al Fateh v Al Shabab | 1-3 | Al Shabab (50.1%) | Correct |
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Taylor Fritz (81.7%) | Correct |
| Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos | 1-5 | Panathinaikos (68.1%) | Correct |
| Al Hazem v Al Fayha | 2-2 | Al Hazem (47%) | Wrong |
| David Goffin v Alex Michelsen | null-null | Alex Michelsen (77.2%) | Correct |
| Daniil Medvedev v Sho Shimabukuro | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (86.7%) | Correct |
| Valentin Vacherot v Luca Van Assche | null-null | Valentin Vacherot (72%) | Wrong |
| Borna Gojo v Daniel Altmaier | null-null | Daniel Altmaier (58.4%) | Correct |
| Raphael Collignon v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (73.7%) | Correct |
| Elena Rybakina v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Elena Rybakina (87.4%) | Correct |
| Tomas Machac v Karen Khachanov | null-null | Karen Khachanov (61.6%) | Correct |
| Alexandra Eala v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (53%) | Correct |
| Namibia v Ireland | null-null | Namibia (56%) | Wrong |
| England v Sri Lanka | null-null | England (60.2%) | Wrong |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (64%) | Correct |
| Katarzyna Kawa v Belinda Bencic | null-null | Belinda Bencic (74.8%) | Wrong |
| Magda Linette v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (62.8%) | Correct |
| Terence Atmane v Mattia Bellucci | null-null | Terence Atmane (54.7%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Jasmine Paolini | null-null | Iva Jovic (59%) | Correct |
| Mary Stoiana v Moyuka Uchijima | null-null | Mary Stoiana (66.3%) | Correct |
| Pachuca v Cruz Azul | 1-2 | Cruz Azul (44.1%) | Correct |
| Santos v Pumas UNAM | 2-0 | Santos (40.7%) | Correct |
| Antonia Ruzic v Kayla Day | null-null | Antonia Ruzic (56%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Ann Li (61.6%) | Correct |
| LA Clippers v Sacramento Kings | 121-96 | LA Clippers (62.6%) | Correct |
By competition
- Europa League: 9 of 18 correct
- Conference League: 11 of 18 correct
- NHL: 6 of 12 correct
- WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open: 7 of 7 correct
- WTA BNB Ningbo Open: 4 of 5 correct
- ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 4 of 5 correct
- ATP Almaty Open: 3 of 4 correct
- NBA: 3 of 3 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 3 correct
- ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open: 3 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 1 of 2 correct
- Liga MX: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.7% (681 of 1201). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more