How the model did: 51 of 86 right (59.3%) on 23 October 2026
86 settled matches, 51 correct picks, one real upset (Borussia Mönchengladbach over VfB Stuttgart) and the honest numbers behind them.
86 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 51 of them, a 59.3% hit rate for the day against a running 56.7% across 1279 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-3 VfB Stuttgart
The model gave VfB Stuttgart 67.3% and Borussia Mönchengladbach only 11.8%. Bundesliga result: VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach. A 11.8% outcome should happen about once in every 8 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Atlético Junior at 54.4%
Atlético Junior 1-0 Águilas Doradas in the Primera A. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse | 4-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (67.9%) | Correct |
| Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC | 1-1 | Newcastle Jets (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Atlante v Atlético de San Luis | 0-1 | Atlante (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Stanford Cardinal v NC State Wolfpack | 31-28 | NC State Wolfpack (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Lakers v LA Clippers | 125-117 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.9%) | Correct |
| Sacramento Kings v Portland Trail Blazers | 120-128 | Sacramento Kings (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Warriors v Memphis Grizzlies | 108-111 | Golden State Warriors (60.6%) | Wrong |
| Utah Jazz v New Orleans Pelicans | 120-119 | Utah Jazz (56.3%) | Correct |
| San Antonio Spurs v Houston Rockets | 110-114 | San Antonio Spurs (59.5%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Junior v Águilas Doradas | 1-0 | Atlético Junior (54.4%) | Correct |
| Necaxa v FC Juárez | 1-1 | Necaxa (50.9%) | Wrong |
| Colorado Avalanche v Tampa Bay Lightning | 6-3 | Colorado Avalanche (50.9%) | Correct |
| Wyoming Cowboys v Air Force Falcons | 28-14 | Wyoming Cowboys (55.5%) | Correct |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane v Army Black Knights | 35-38 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Tigre v Atlético Tucumán | 0-1 | Tigre (57.8%) | Wrong |
| Miami Heat v Detroit Pistons | 111-128 | Miami Heat (53.7%) | Wrong |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Montreal Canadiens | 1-4 | Montreal Canadiens (59.6%) | Correct |
| Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays | 3-2 | Milwaukee Brewers (55.4%) | Correct |
| Tasmania v Victoria | null-null | Tasmania (66.6%) | Wrong |
| Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Bucaramanga | 1-0 | Atlético Bucaramanga (57.6%) | Wrong |
| Audax Italiano v Huachipato | 1-1 | Audax Italiano (49.2%) | Wrong |
| Cruzeiro v Remo | 1-0 | Cruzeiro (69.1%) | Correct |
| Charlotte Hornets v Atlanta Hawks | 81-128 | Charlotte Hornets (57%) | Wrong |
| Orlando Magic v Minnesota Timberwolves | 93-115 | Orlando Magic (56.5%) | Wrong |
| Washington Wizards v Toronto Raptors | 102-112 | Toronto Raptors (50.4%) | Correct |
| Indiana Pacers v Dallas Mavericks | 105-121 | Indiana Pacers (55.4%) | Wrong |
| Boston Celtics v New York Knicks | 107-103 | Boston Celtics (58.1%) | Correct |
| Virginia Cavaliers v Duke Blue Devils | 16-19 | Virginia Cavaliers (55.5%) | Wrong |
| UConn Huskies v Massachusetts Minutemen | 35-16 | UConn Huskies (55.5%) | Correct |
| Gimnasia (Mendoza) v Platense | 1-2 | Platense (36.6%) | Correct |
| Gimnasia La Plata v Sarmiento (Junín) | 2-0 | Gimnasia La Plata (58.9%) | Correct |
| Milwaukee Bucks v Chicago Bulls | 125-132 | Milwaukee Bucks (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Vitória de Guimaraes v Maritimo | 5-0 | Vitória de Guimaraes (65.7%) | Correct |
| Luca Van Assche v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (73.4%) | Correct |
| Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough | 1-5 | Middlesbrough (61.4%) | Correct |
| Alavés v Málaga | 1-1 | Alavés (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Nottingham Forest (45.2%) | Wrong |
| Jan-Lennard Struff v Zizou Bergs | null-null | Zizou Bergs (56.6%) | Wrong |
| Torino v Monza | 3-2 | Torino (40.5%) | Correct |
| Brest v Nice | 1-2 | Brest (36.9%) | Wrong |
| Empoli v Vicenza | 0-2 | Empoli (36%) | Wrong |
| VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2-3 | VfB Stuttgart (67.3%) | Wrong |
| Granada v Real Valladolid | 2-1 | Granada (44.7%) | Correct |
| Go Ahead Eagles v Telstar | 3-2 | Go Ahead Eagles (60.5%) | Correct |
| Dunkerque v Metz | 1-1 | Metz (47.7%) | Wrong |
| AS Nancy Lorraine v Stade Laval | 1-0 | AS Nancy Lorraine (67%) | Correct |
| Clermont Foot v Guingamp | 0-2 | Guingamp (51.8%) | Correct |
| Pau v Grenoble | 2-1 | Pau (57.2%) | Correct |
| Al Qadsiah v Al Hilal | 2-3 | Al Hilal (52.2%) | Correct |
| Sochaux v Annecy | 1-3 | Sochaux (46.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Ahli v Al Khaleej | 4-1 | Al Ahli (73.8%) | Correct |
| SC Rheindorf Altach v Austria Vienna | 2-1 | SC Rheindorf Altach (37.6%) | Correct |
| Flavio Cobolli v Brandon Nakashima | null-null | Brandon Nakashima (58.6%) | Wrong |
| Västerås SK v Halmstads BK | 1-2 | Västerås SK (61.5%) | Wrong |
| IF Elfsborg v Malmö FF | 0-0 | IF Elfsborg (47.1%) | Wrong |
| Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor | 1-2 | Alanyaspor (47.7%) | Wrong |
| Randers FC v Brøndby IF | 1-3 | Brøndby IF (42.2%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fils v Alex Michelsen | null-null | Arthur Fils (65%) | Correct |
| SV Darmstadt 98 v St. Pauli | 0-0 | St. Pauli (49.4%) | Wrong |
| VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg | 1-1 | VfL Wolfsburg (49.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Ittihad v Al Diriyah | 2-0 | Al Ittihad (59%) | Correct |
| Daniel Altmaier v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Taylor Fritz (74.6%) | Correct |
| Alexander Bublik v Karen Khachanov | null-null | Alexander Bublik (50.7%) | Correct |
| Tallon Griekspoor v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (73.5%) | Wrong |
| Al Faisaly v Al Nassr | 1-3 | Al Nassr (83.4%) | Correct |
| Gambia v Uganda | null-null | Uganda (96.5%) | Correct |
| Elena Rybakina v Katarzyna Kawa | null-null | Elena Rybakina (88.8%) | Correct |
| Corentin Moutet v Tommy Paul | null-null | Tommy Paul (76.3%) | Correct |
| Clement Chidekh v Francisco Cerundolo | null-null | Francisco Cerundolo (72.1%) | Correct |
| Daniil Medvedev v Terence Atmane | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (74.8%) | Correct |
| Iva Jovic v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Iva Jovic (51.6%) | Wrong |
| Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory | 2-1 | Brisbane Roar (37.8%) | Correct |
| Lesotho v Zambia | null-null | Zambia (77.3%) | Correct |
| Nigeria v Mozambique | null-null | Nigeria (80.2%) | Correct |
| India Women v Zimbabwe Women | null-null | India Women (92.1%) | Correct |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas v James Duckworth | null-null | Stefanos Tsitsipas (70.8%) | Correct |
| Katie Boulter v Antonia Ruzic | null-null | Katie Boulter (60.9%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Ekaterina Alexandrova | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (51.1%) | Correct |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili v Adrian Mannarino | null-null | Adrian Mannarino (50.3%) | Wrong |
| Mary Stoiana v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (54.4%) | Correct |
| Talia Gibson v Ashlyn Krueger | null-null | Ashlyn Krueger (57.5%) | Correct |
| Sara Bejlek v Marie Bouzkova | null-null | Marie Bouzkova (51.3%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Lilli Tagger | null-null | Ann Li (61.3%) | Correct |
| Vancouver Canucks v Detroit Red Wings | 2-5 | Detroit Red Wings (59.5%) | Correct |
| Seattle Kraken v Utah Mammoth | 5-3 | Seattle Kraken (53.1%) | Correct |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets | 96-84 | Oklahoma City Thunder (59.5%) | Correct |
By competition
- NBA: 5 of 13 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 5 correct
- Ligue 2: 3 of 5 correct
- NHL: 4 of 4 correct
- ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 3 of 4 correct
- ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open: 2 of 4 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 4 of 4 correct
- ATP Almaty Open: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA BNB Ningbo Open: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open: 4 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 2 of 3 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C: 3 of 3 correct
- A-League Men: 1 of 2 correct
- Liga MX: 0 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- Allsvenskan: 0 of 2 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.7% (725 of 1279). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more