How the model did: 118 of 235 right (50.2%) on 24 October 2026
235 settled matches, 118 correct picks, one real upset (Vålerenga over Bodo/Glimt) and the honest numbers behind them.
235 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 118 of them, a 50.2% hit rate for the day against a running 55.8% across 1507 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Vålerenga 0-1 Bodo/Glimt
The model gave Bodo/Glimt 90.4% and Vålerenga only 2.9%. Eliteserien result: Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Vålerenga. A 2.9% outcome should happen about once in every 34 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Modena at 53.7%
Modena 3-0 Cesena in the Serie B. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos | 1-1 | Yokohama F. Marinos (41%) | Wrong |
| Ashlyn Krueger v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Ashlyn Krueger (50.2%) | Wrong |
| Sydney FC v Adelaide United | 2-1 | Sydney FC (41.2%) | Correct |
| Pumas UNAM v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Tigres UANL (42%) | Wrong |
| Portland Timbers v Charlotte FC | 3-2 | Portland Timbers (45.9%) | Correct |
| San Diego FC v Seattle Sounders FC | 2-2 | San Diego FC (39.4%) | Wrong |
| New Mexico Lobos v North Dakota State Bison | 21-16 | New Mexico Lobos (55.5%) | Correct |
| Utah Utes v Houston Cougars | 21-13 | Utah Utes (55.5%) | Correct |
| Wellington Phoenix FC v Central Coast Mariners | 2-0 | Wellington Phoenix FC (70.1%) | Correct |
| Phoenix Suns v Golden State Warriors | 131-122 | Phoenix Suns (59.3%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Detroit Red Wings | 4-1 | Detroit Red Wings (63.4%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Kraken v Minnesota Wild | 1-5 | Seattle Kraken (55.1%) | Wrong |
| Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps (47.6%) | Wrong |
| Real Salt Lake v St. Louis CITY SC | 3-0 | Real Salt Lake (38.5%) | Correct |
| Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 | Once Caldas (84.1%) | Wrong |
| Monterrey v Guadalajara | 0-1 | Monterrey (37.1%) | Wrong |
| Denver Nuggets v New Orleans Pelicans | 141-135 | Denver Nuggets (64.1%) | Correct |
| Utah Mammoth v Tampa Bay Lightning | 5-4 | Utah Mammoth (53.1%) | Correct |
| FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes | 3-0 | FC Dallas (52.9%) | Correct |
| Houston Dynamo FC v Minnesota United FC | 0-0 | Houston Dynamo FC (39.8%) | Wrong |
| Sporting Kansas City v Austin FC | 1-2 | Sporting Kansas City (41.4%) | Wrong |
| Rosario Central v Huracán | 2-0 | Rosario Central (53.4%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Hawks v Houston Rockets | 114-121 | Atlanta Hawks (56.1%) | Wrong |
| Santos v Bahia | 1-1 | Santos (46.5%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v San Antonio Spurs | 106-122 | San Antonio Spurs (51.1%) | Correct |
| Chicago Bulls v Washington Wizards | 120-124 | Chicago Bulls (61.4%) | Wrong |
| Tulane Green Wave v UTSA Roadrunners | 19-42 | Tulane Green Wave (63.6%) | Wrong |
| Milwaukee Brewers v Tampa Bay Rays | 5-4 | Milwaukee Brewers (55.4%) | Correct |
| Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire FC | 2-3 | Chicago Fire FC (41.3%) | Correct |
| D.C. United v FC Cincinnati | 0-2 | FC Cincinnati (43.8%) | Correct |
| Orlando City SC v New York City FC | 2-2 | New York City FC (36%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution | 1-2 | Philadelphia Union (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia 76ers v Milwaukee Bucks | 127-116 | Philadelphia 76ers (60.6%) | Correct |
| Cleveland Cavaliers v Brooklyn Nets | 125-121 | Cleveland Cavaliers (65.3%) | Correct |
| Kentucky Wildcats v Vanderbilt Commodores | 34-17 | Kentucky Wildcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Wisconsin Badgers v USC Trojans | 24-7 | Wisconsin Badgers (55.5%) | Correct |
| Texas State Bobcats v Utah State Aggies | 20-17 | Texas State Bobcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Arizona Wildcats v Iowa State Cyclones | 39-3 | Arizona Wildcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| North Carolina Tar Heels v Syracuse Orange | 30-31 | North Carolina Tar Heels (63.6%) | Wrong |
| Texas Longhorns v Ole Miss Rebels | 34-27 | Texas Longhorns (55.5%) | Correct |
| América de Cali v Cúcuta Deportivo | 3-1 | América de Cali (84.5%) | Correct |
| León v Toluca | 1-1 | Toluca (50.1%) | Wrong |
| O'Higgins v Cobresal | 1-1 | O'Higgins (72%) | Wrong |
| St. Louis Blues v Carolina Hurricanes | 0-4 | Carolina Hurricanes (52%) | Correct |
| Boston Bruins v San Jose Sharks | 6-4 | Boston Bruins (65.6%) | Correct |
| Ottawa Senators v New York Rangers | 7-4 | Ottawa Senators (51.7%) | Correct |
| Pittsburgh Penguins v Nashville Predators | 3-2 | Pittsburgh Penguins (56.5%) | Correct |
| Washington Capitals v Buffalo Sabres | 4-3 | Washington Capitals (60.7%) | Correct |
| Columbus Blue Jackets v Vegas Golden Knights | 2-1 | Vegas Golden Knights (61.5%) | Wrong |
| Edmonton Oilers v Toronto Maple Leafs | 2-7 | Edmonton Oilers (61.8%) | Wrong |
| Clemson Tigers v Virginia Tech Hokies | 16-20 | Clemson Tigers (63.6%) | Wrong |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys v Colorado Buffaloes | 57-24 | Oklahoma State Cowboys (55.5%) | Correct |
| Chapecoense v Fluminense | 2-1 | Fluminense (55.3%) | Wrong |
| Colorado State Rams v San Diego State Aztecs | 56-49 | Colorado State Rams (55.5%) | Correct |
| San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys | 0-0 | San Lorenzo (36.4%) | Wrong |
| Charlotte Hornets v Miami Heat | 115-110 | Charlotte Hornets (57.7%) | Correct |
| Washington State Cougars v Boise State Broncos | 10-31 | Washington State Cougars (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Vasco da Gama v Corinthians | 3-2 | Vasco da Gama (57.1%) | Correct |
| Red Bull New York v Inter Miami CF | 2-0 | Inter Miami CF (53.1%) | Wrong |
| Palmeiras v Red Bull Bragantino | 2-0 | Palmeiras (55.3%) | Correct |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs v Old Dominion Monarchs | 26-0 | Old Dominion Monarchs (84.5%) | Wrong |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 35-31 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles (86.6%) | Correct |
| Nevada Wolf Pack v San José State Spartans | 28-13 | Nevada Wolf Pack (55.5%) | Correct |
| Talleres (Córdoba) v Defensa y Justicia | 1-2 | Talleres (Córdoba) (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Troy Trojans v UL Monroe Warhawks | 14-21 | UL Monroe Warhawks (84.5%) | Correct |
| Ohio Bobcats v Eastern Michigan Eagles | 24-20 | Ohio Bobcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Arizona State Sun Devils v Kansas State Wildcats | 28-17 | Arizona State Sun Devils (63.6%) | Correct |
| Gil Vicente v FC Porto | 0-1 | FC Porto (70.1%) | Correct |
| Internacional v Botafogo | 3-0 | Internacional (48.6%) | Correct |
| Mirassol v São Paulo | 1-1 | Mirassol (36.2%) | Wrong |
| Vitória v Athletico-PR | 1-1 | Athletico-PR (38.4%) | Wrong |
| Columbus Crew v Toronto FC | 4-2 | Columbus Crew (59.2%) | Correct |
| New Jersey Devils v Los Angeles Kings | 3-1 | New Jersey Devils (67.7%) | Correct |
| Buffalo Bulls v Bowling Green Falcons | 31-24 | Buffalo Bulls (55.5%) | Correct |
| Northern Illinois Huskies v Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 21-56 | Northern Illinois Huskies (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Ball State Cardinals v Sacramento State Hornets | 34-17 | Ball State Cardinals (55.5%) | Correct |
| Navy Midshipmen v North Texas Mean Green | 39-49 | North Texas Mean Green (52.9%) | Correct |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs v Oklahoma Sooners | 15-23 | Mississippi State Bulldogs (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Boston College Eagles | 27-49 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (63.6%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers v Iowa Hawkeyes | 13-10 | Minnesota Golden Gophers (55.5%) | Correct |
| UCLA Bruins v Michigan State Spartans | 28-10 | UCLA Bruins (63.6%) | Correct |
| Alabama Crimson Tide v Texas A&M Aggies | 31-20 | Alabama Crimson Tide (55.5%) | Correct |
| South Carolina Gamecocks v Tennessee Volunteers | 27-24 | South Carolina Gamecocks (55.5%) | Correct |
| UCF Knights v BYU Cougars | 39-31 | BYU Cougars (52.9%) | Wrong |
| ADO Den Haag v Heerenveen | 2-3 | Heerenveen (49.3%) | Correct |
| Atlético Madrid v Deportivo | 1-0 | Atlético Madrid (56.2%) | Correct |
| Almería v Real Oviedo | 2-2 | Almería (59.8%) | Wrong |
| Illinois Fighting Illini v Oregon Ducks | 21-10 | Illinois Fighting Illini (55.5%) | Correct |
| RAAL La Louvière v Zulte-Waregem | 3-0 | Zulte-Waregem (48.4%) | Wrong |
| Saint-Étienne v Nantes | 1-0 | Saint-Étienne (50.5%) | Correct |
| Lazio v Parma | 2-1 | Lazio (65.6%) | Correct |
| Lens v Paris FC | 2-1 | Paris FC (37.2%) | Wrong |
| KVC Westerlo v Waasland-Beveren | 4-4 | KVC Westerlo (50.9%) | Wrong |
| 1. FC Nürnberg v Kaiserslautern | 0-1 | 1. FC Nürnberg (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Riyadh v Al Taawoun | 2-1 | Al Taawoun (45.4%) | Wrong |
| Banfield v Lanús | 1-1 | Lanús (50.2%) | Wrong |
| Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau | 5-1 | Rapid Vienna (88.1%) | Correct |
| Arezzo v Benevento | 0-3 | Benevento (48.8%) | Correct |
| CF Montréal v Nashville SC | 0-2 | Nashville SC (62.8%) | Correct |
| Alverca v Arouca | 0-1 | Alverca (43%) | Wrong |
| AEK Athens v Panetolikos | 5-0 | AEK Athens (90%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries | 62-67 | Atlanta Dream (60.3%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Anaheim Ducks | 4-5 | Anaheim Ducks (56%) | Correct |
| Kansas Jayhawks v Baylor Bears | 25-24 | Baylor Bears (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Central Michigan Chippewas v Miami (OH) RedHawks | 27-28 | Central Michigan Chippewas (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Kent State Golden Flashes v Akron Zips | 35-20 | Kent State Golden Flashes (55.5%) | Correct |
| Willem II v SC Cambuur | 1-6 | SC Cambuur (38.7%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fils v Jan-Lennard Struff | null-null | Arthur Fils (75.1%) | Wrong |
| Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur | 0-2 | Chelsea (50.9%) | Wrong |
| Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | Borussia Dortmund (57.2%) | Correct |
| Las Palmas v Real Sociedad II | 1-0 | Las Palmas (43.1%) | Correct |
| Girona v RC Celta Fortuna | 5-1 | Girona (58.1%) | Correct |
| Asteras Tripoli v Levadiakos | 0-0 | Asteras Tripoli (53.5%) | Wrong |
| Valencia v Villarreal | 1-2 | Villarreal (47.9%) | Correct |
| OH Leuven v Lommel SK | 2-2 | OH Leuven (58.8%) | Wrong |
| Hamarkameratene v Rosenborg | 0-3 | Rosenborg (57.5%) | Correct |
| Napoli v AS Roma | 3-3 | AS Roma (42%) | Wrong |
| Samsunspor v Amed SFK | 1-2 | Amed SFK (60.4%) | Correct |
| Iraklis v Kifisia | 2-3 | Iraklis (46.1%) | Wrong |
| TCU Horned Frogs v West Virginia Mountaineers | 20-24 | TCU Horned Frogs (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Northwestern Wildcats v Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 42-14 | Northwestern Wildcats (63.6%) | Correct |
| Michigan Wolverines v Indiana Hoosiers | 6-13 | Michigan Wolverines (55.5%) | Wrong |
| SMU Mustangs v California Golden Bears | 59-20 | SMU Mustangs (55.5%) | Correct |
| Florida Atlantic Owls v Rice Owls | 51-49 | Florida Atlantic Owls (55.5%) | Correct |
| Toledo Rockets v Western Michigan Broncos | 45-38 | Toledo Rockets (55.5%) | Correct |
| Auburn Tigers v LSU Tigers | 17-38 | Auburn Tigers (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Miami Hurricanes v Pittsburgh Panthers | 52-23 | Miami Hurricanes (55.5%) | Correct |
| Cincinnati Bearcats v Texas Tech Red Raiders | 37-24 | Cincinnati Bearcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Kalmar FF v IF Brommapojkarna | 0-3 | Kalmar FF (68.3%) | Wrong |
| Djurgården v Örgryte IS | 2-2 | Djurgården (89.3%) | Wrong |
| La Serena v Deportes Concepcion | 3-1 | La Serena (41.8%) | Correct |
| Catanzaro v Ascoli | 1-6 | Catanzaro (43.1%) | Wrong |
| Al Kholood v Al Ettifaq | 0-3 | Al Kholood (41.5%) | Wrong |
| TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger | 1-0 | TSV Hartberg (40.2%) | Correct |
| WSG Swarovski Tirol v Grazer AK | 1-1 | WSG Swarovski Tirol (45.1%) | Wrong |
| FC Utrecht v PEC Zwolle | 1-1 | FC Utrecht (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Estrela v Casa Pia | 0-2 | Estrela (50.2%) | Wrong |
| Leganés v Mallorca | 1-1 | Mallorca (63.1%) | Wrong |
| Racing Santander v Espanyol | 2-1 | Racing Santander (36.5%) | Correct |
| Francisco Cerundolo v Tallon Griekspoor | null-null | Francisco Cerundolo (67.3%) | Wrong |
| Flavio Cobolli v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (55%) | Correct |
| Falkirk v Kilmarnock | 3-0 | Falkirk (44.1%) | Correct |
| Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham | 2-0 | Wrexham (39.9%) | Wrong |
| St Mirren v Dundee | 2-1 | Dundee (48.1%) | Wrong |
| Preston North End v West Bromwich Albion | 1-1 | West Bromwich Albion (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Burton Albion v Leyton Orient | 2-1 | Burton Albion (37.8%) | Correct |
| Crawley Town v Tranmere Rovers | 1-1 | Tranmere Rovers (43.6%) | Wrong |
| AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe Wanderers | 1-1 | Wycombe Wanderers (50.7%) | Wrong |
| Bromley v Peterborough United | 1-1 | Peterborough United (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Oxford United v Bradford City | 0-0 | Oxford United (37.4%) | Wrong |
| Chesterfield v Crewe Alexandra | 5-1 | Chesterfield (43.2%) | Correct |
| Gillingham v Grimsby Town | 1-4 | Grimsby Town (52.1%) | Correct |
| Rochdale v Accrington Stanley | 0-5 | Rochdale (42.5%) | Wrong |
| York City v Port Vale | 2-0 | York City (48.3%) | Correct |
| Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City | 5-0 | Swansea City (42%) | Wrong |
| Stoke City v Bristol City | 0-0 | Stoke City (36.5%) | Wrong |
| Dundee United v Aberdeen | 3-2 | Dundee United (51.4%) | Correct |
| Coventry City v Fulham | 0-1 | Fulham (46.5%) | Correct |
| Blackpool v Mansfield Town | 1-4 | Mansfield Town (38.8%) | Correct |
| Cambridge United v Plymouth Argyle | 2-3 | Cambridge United (41.3%) | Wrong |
| Notts County v Stockport County | 1-1 | Stockport County (62.2%) | Wrong |
| Antwerp v Royal Charleroi SC | 3-0 | Royal Charleroi SC (55.8%) | Wrong |
| Cardiff City v Birmingham City | 1-0 | Birmingham City (42%) | Wrong |
| Lincoln City v Burnley | 4-1 | Burnley (44%) | Wrong |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford | 1-0 | Wolverhampton Wanderers (69.9%) | Correct |
| Reading v Barnsley | 2-1 | Reading (62.3%) | Correct |
| Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | Stevenage (46.2%) | Wrong |
| Barnet v Oldham Athletic | 1-1 | Barnet (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Rangers v St Johnstone | 4-0 | Rangers (61.2%) | Correct |
| Arsenal v Everton | 2-0 | Arsenal (63.6%) | Correct |
| West Ham United v Southampton | 2-3 | West Ham United (55.7%) | Wrong |
| Doncaster Rovers v Sheffield Wednesday | 2-0 | Sheffield Wednesday (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Neom SC v Abha | 2-0 | Neom SC (67.6%) | Correct |
| Exeter City v Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | Exeter City (38.6%) | Correct |
| Bodo/Glimt v Vålerenga | 0-1 | Bodo/Glimt (90.4%) | Wrong |
| Rotherham United v Shrewsbury Town | 3-3 | Rotherham United (39%) | Wrong |
| RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg | 4-0 | RB Leipzig (67.5%) | Correct |
| FC Augsburg v 1. FC Union Berlin | 1-1 | FC Augsburg (44.3%) | Wrong |
| SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburg SV | 1-0 | SC Paderborn 07 (37.1%) | Correct |
| FC Cologne v Schalke 04 | 0-0 | FC Cologne (42.5%) | Wrong |
| Mainz v Werder Bremen | 2-3 | Mainz (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Daniil Medvedev v Alexander Bublik | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (61.3%) | Correct |
| BK Häcken v Degerfors IF | 4-0 | BK Häcken (77.6%) | Correct |
| Cagliari v Bologna | 0-2 | Bologna (44.6%) | Correct |
| Como v Sassuolo | 2-0 | Como (58.7%) | Correct |
| Cremonese v Juve Stabia | 0-1 | Juve Stabia (37.9%) | Correct |
| Modena v Cesena | 3-0 | Modena (53.7%) | Correct |
| Virtus Entella v Mantova | 0-1 | Virtus Entella (36.8%) | Wrong |
| US Avellino v Padova | 0-1 | US Avellino (51.1%) | Wrong |
| IK Sirius v AIK | 1-2 | IK Sirius (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Sudtirol v Sampdoria | 1-1 | Sudtirol (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Gaziantep FK v Erzurum BB | 1-3 | Gaziantep FK (47.1%) | Wrong |
| Nigeria v Lesotho | null-null | Nigeria (91.5%) | Correct |
| Gambia v Zambia | null-null | Zambia (76.6%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Tommy Paul (51%) | Wrong |
| Dijon FCO v Rodez Aveyron | 1-2 | Dijon FCO (45.8%) | Wrong |
| Rayo Vallecano v Elche | 0-3 | Rayo Vallecano (52.5%) | Wrong |
| Córdoba v Eibar | 2-0 | Córdoba (63.8%) | Correct |
| Aston Villa v Manchester City | 2-1 | Manchester City (61.7%) | Wrong |
| Portsmouth v Millwall | 2-1 | Millwall (37%) | Wrong |
| Huddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic | 2-1 | Huddersfield Town (78.7%) | Correct |
| Northampton Town v Colchester United | 2-0 | Northampton Town (53.4%) | Correct |
| Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town | 0-0 | Bristol Rovers (68.3%) | Wrong |
| Cheltenham Town v Newport County | 1-0 | Newport County (35.5%) | Wrong |
| Sheffield United v Derby County | 1-1 | Sheffield United (48.7%) | Wrong |
| Charlton Athletic v Norwich City | 1-3 | Norwich City (47.5%) | Correct |
| Luton Town v Leicester City | 2-1 | Luton Town (43.2%) | Correct |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 v Energie Cottbus | 1-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (44.3%) | Wrong |
| Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld | 1-0 | Hertha Berlin (52.8%) | Correct |
| 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC | 6-1 | 1. FC Magdeburg (52.7%) | Correct |
| Eyupspor v Kasimpasa | 0-1 | Kasimpasa (65.9%) | Correct |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili v Stefanos Tsitsipas | null-null | Stefanos Tsitsipas (64.2%) | Wrong |
| Elena Rybakina v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Elena Rybakina (70.4%) | Correct |
| Mozambique v Uganda | null-null | Uganda (93.3%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City FC | 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (47.9%) | Wrong |
| Katie Boulter v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (52.5%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Marie Bouzkova | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (50.8%) | Correct |
| Namibia v Ireland | null-null | Ireland (51.5%) | Wrong |
| Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga | 2-2 | Gamba Osaka (47.6%) | Wrong |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (68.4%) | Correct |
| Denmark v Kuwait | null-null | Kuwait (59.7%) | Wrong |
| Kenya v Qatar | null-null | Kenya (51.7%) | Wrong |
| Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland FC | 5-2 | Western Sydney Wanderers (48%) | Correct |
| Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia | 0-0 | Machida Zelvia (40.8%) | Wrong |
| Kashima Antlers v Kashiwa Reysol | 2-3 | Kashima Antlers (49.1%) | Wrong |
| Tokyo Verdy 1969 v Avispa Fukuoka | 3-1 | Avispa Fukuoka (41%) | Wrong |
| Western Australia v New South Wales | null-null | New South Wales (58.6%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Ashlyn Krueger | null-null | Ann Li (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse | 4-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (67.9%) | Correct |
| Newcastle Jets v Macarthur FC | 1-1 | Newcastle Jets (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Atlante v Atlético de San Luis | 0-1 | Atlante (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Stanford Cardinal v NC State Wolfpack | 31-28 | NC State Wolfpack (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Lakers v LA Clippers | 125-117 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.9%) | Correct |
| Sacramento Kings v Portland Trail Blazers | 120-128 | Sacramento Kings (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Warriors v Memphis Grizzlies | 108-111 | Golden State Warriors (60.6%) | Wrong |
By competition
- NCAA Football: 29 of 44 correct
- MLS: 7 of 14 correct
- NHL: 8 of 12 correct
- League One: 5 of 12 correct
- NBA: 7 of 11 correct
- Championship: 2 of 11 correct
- League Two: 5 of 11 correct
- Brasileirao: 3 of 7 correct
- Serie B: 3 of 7 correct
- J1 League: 1 of 6 correct
- Bundesliga: 3 of 6 correct
- A-League Men: 3 of 5 correct
- LaLiga 2: 3 of 5 correct
- Liga MX: 0 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 1 of 4 correct
- La Liga: 3 of 4 correct
- Belgian Pro League: 0 of 4 correct
- Serie A: 3 of 4 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 2 of 4 correct
- Premier League: 2 of 4 correct
- Allsvenskan: 1 of 4 correct
- Scottish Premiership: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Kinoshita Group Japan Open: 1 of 3 correct
- Primeira Liga: 1 of 3 correct
- Eredivisie: 2 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 1 of 3 correct
- Austrian Bundesliga: 2 of 3 correct
- Greek Super League: 1 of 3 correct
- Super Lig: 2 of 3 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C: 3 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- Primera Division: 1 of 2 correct
- Ligue 2: 1 of 2 correct
- ATP BNP Paribas Fortis European Open: 0 of 2 correct
- Eliteserien: 1 of 2 correct
- ATP Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes: 1 of 2 correct
- ATP Almaty Open: 1 of 2 correct
- WTA BNB Ningbo Open: 2 of 2 correct
- CWC Challenge League Group A: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 55.8% (841 of 1507). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more