How the model did: 78 of 142 right (54.9%) on 25 October 2026
142 settled matches, 78 correct picks, one real upset (Deportivo Pasto over Deportes Tolima) and the honest numbers behind them.
142 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 78 of them, a 54.9% hit rate for the day against a running 55.8% across 1637 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Deportes Tolima
The model gave Deportes Tolima 83.9% and Deportivo Pasto only 4.2%. Primera A result: Deportes Tolima 0-1 Deportivo Pasto. A 4.2% outcome should happen about once in every 24 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Marseille at 54.8%
Marseille 4-3 Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moyuka Uchijima v Elise Mertens | null-null | Elise Mertens (78.6%) | Correct |
| Daria Snigur v Anna Bondar | null-null | Daria Snigur (61.8%) | Wrong |
| Daria Kasatkina v Talia Gibson | null-null | Daria Kasatkina (50.4%) | Wrong |
| Tijuana v Santos | 4-1 | Tijuana (43.2%) | Correct |
| Panna Udvardy v Sinja Kraus | null-null | Sinja Kraus (61%) | Correct |
| Maria Timofeeva v Teodora Kostovic | null-null | Maria Timofeeva (67.5%) | Correct |
| Vancouver Canucks v Minnesota Wild | 2-4 | Minnesota Wild (70.5%) | Correct |
| Wang Xinyu v Alycia Parks | null-null | Wang Xinyu (61.1%) | Wrong |
| Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto | 0-1 | Deportes Tolima (83.9%) | Wrong |
| América v Pachuca | 1-2 | América (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Querétaro v Cruz Azul | 1-3 | Cruz Azul (51.4%) | Correct |
| LAFC v LA Galaxy | 2-2 | LAFC (55.3%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento Kings v Memphis Grizzlies | 112-123 | Sacramento Kings (56.6%) | Wrong |
| Barracas Central v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 2-1 | Barracas Central (59.2%) | Correct |
| Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Vélez Sarsfield | 0-5 | Vélez Sarsfield (45.4%) | Correct |
| Seattle Seahawks v Kansas City Chiefs | 20-3 | Seattle Seahawks (60.2%) | Correct |
| Nashville Predators v Colorado Avalanche | 6-2 | Colorado Avalanche (56.4%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia 76ers v Detroit Pistons | 93-106 | Philadelphia 76ers (54.2%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Nacional v Independiente Medellín | 2-1 | Atlético Nacional (65%) | Correct |
| Atlas v Puebla | 4-3 | Atlas (51.7%) | Correct |
| Universidad de Concepción v Deportes Limache | 0-1 | Deportes Limache (44%) | Correct |
| New York Knicks v Orlando Magic | 102-111 | New York Knicks (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Timberwolves v Toronto Raptors | 117-94 | Minnesota Timberwolves (58.1%) | Correct |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v LA Clippers | 108-101 | Oklahoma City Thunder (62.1%) | Correct |
| Winnipeg Jets v Montreal Canadiens | 1-2 | Winnipeg Jets (52.2%) | Wrong |
| River Plate v Racing Club | 1-0 | River Plate (65.3%) | Correct |
| Brooklyn Nets v Indiana Pacers | 109-136 | Brooklyn Nets (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Stars v New York Islanders | 6-3 | Dallas Stars (57.2%) | Correct |
| Alianza FC v Internacional de Bogotá | 1-0 | Alianza FC (49.4%) | Correct |
| Utah Jazz v Los Angeles Lakers | 123-132 | Los Angeles Lakers (50.4%) | Correct |
| Sporting CP v Académico de Viseu | 1-2 | Sporting CP (75.4%) | Wrong |
| Palestino v Colo Colo | 1-1 | Colo Colo (60.1%) | Wrong |
| Detroit Lions v Green Bay Packers | 20-17 | Detroit Lions (51.6%) | Correct |
| Las Vegas Raiders v Los Angeles Rams | 21-35 | Los Angeles Rams (52.4%) | Correct |
| Arizona Cardinals v Denver Broncos | 16-30 | Denver Broncos (54.2%) | Correct |
| Independiente v Boca Juniors | 0-1 | Boca Juniors (50.5%) | Correct |
| Barcelona v Real Madrid | 1-2 | Barcelona (52.2%) | Wrong |
| Udinese v AC Milan | 0-2 | AC Milan (61.4%) | Correct |
| AZ Alkmaar v FC Twente | 0-2 | AZ Alkmaar (37.9%) | Wrong |
| Fortaleza CEIF v Deportivo Cali | 1-1 | Deportivo Cali (53.9%) | Wrong |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Florida Panthers | 2-3 | Florida Panthers (62.2%) | Correct |
| Union St.-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge KSV | 5-2 | Union St.-Gilloise (74.6%) | Correct |
| Molde v Fredrikstad | 5-1 | Molde (78.8%) | Correct |
| C.D. Nacional v Braga | 1-0 | Braga (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Rio Ave v FC Famalicao | 0-4 | FC Famalicao (51.3%) | Correct |
| OFI Crete v PAOK | 2-1 | PAOK (64.4%) | Wrong |
| Unión La Calera v Universidad Católica | 3-1 | Universidad Católica (62.1%) | Wrong |
| Aldosivi v Belgrano (Córdoba) | 1-0 | Belgrano (Córdoba) (51.8%) | Wrong |
| Real Sociedad v Levante | 2-1 | Real Sociedad (58%) | Correct |
| Castellón v Sporting Gijón | 4-0 | Castellón (69.5%) | Correct |
| KAA Gent v Anderlecht | 4-0 | KAA Gent (35.3%) | Correct |
| Aris v Atromitos | 3-1 | Aris (67.3%) | Correct |
| AGF v Viborg FF | 2-1 | AGF (41.4%) | Correct |
| Lecce v Juventus | 0-2 | Juventus (69.6%) | Correct |
| New York Jets v Miami Dolphins | 25-28 | Miami Dolphins (47.1%) | Correct |
| Baltimore Ravens v Cincinnati Bengals | 13-35 | Baltimore Ravens (54.5%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Vikings v Indianapolis Colts | 16-10 | Minnesota Vikings (53.2%) | Correct |
| Carolina Panthers v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13-43 | Carolina Panthers (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Houston Texans v New York Giants | 21-27 | Houston Texans (60.9%) | Wrong |
| Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers | 29-20 | Atlanta Falcons (48%) | Correct |
| Tennessee Titans v Cleveland Browns | 24-27 | Tennessee Titans (49.4%) | Wrong |
| Sunderland v Leeds United | 0-0 | Leeds United (45%) | Wrong |
| SC Freiburg v Bayern Munich | 1-3 | Bayern Munich (70.4%) | Correct |
| AJ Auxerre v Le Mans | 1-1 | AJ Auxerre (40.9%) | Wrong |
| Angers v Lorient | 0-0 | Lorient (43.1%) | Wrong |
| Marseille v Le Havre AC | 4-3 | Marseille (54.8%) | Correct |
| Stade Rennais v Strasbourg | 3-0 | Stade Rennais (51.1%) | Correct |
| Toulouse v Troyes | 0-0 | Toulouse (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Hellas Verona v Pisa | 1-1 | Hellas Verona (51.6%) | Wrong |
| Goztepe v Çorum FK | 2-0 | Çorum FK (37.7%) | Wrong |
| Volos NFC v Panathinaikos | 0-1 | Panathinaikos (81.1%) | Correct |
| LASK Linz v RB Salzburg | 1-3 | LASK Linz (46.6%) | Wrong |
| IK Start v Sandefjord | 1-0 | IK Start (42.2%) | Correct |
| Kristiansund BK v KFUM Oslo | 2-2 | Kristiansund BK (39.3%) | Wrong |
| Lillestrom v SK Brann | 3-2 | Lillestrom (38.2%) | Correct |
| Sarpsborg FK v Aalesund | 2-1 | Sarpsborg FK (54.1%) | Correct |
| Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax Amsterdam | 1-2 | Ajax Amsterdam (65.4%) | Correct |
| Jan-Lennard Struff v Tallon Griekspoor | null-null | Jan-Lennard Struff (54.6%) | Wrong |
| Estoril v Moreirense | 1-3 | Estoril (47.5%) | Wrong |
| Mjällby AIF v Hammarby IF | 0-2 | Hammarby IF (75.3%) | Correct |
| Ñublense v Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 | Coquimbo Unido (46.3%) | Wrong |
| Celta Vigo v Real Betis | 0-0 | Real Betis (44.1%) | Wrong |
| Albacete v Eldense | 2-0 | Albacete (44.5%) | Correct |
| Cádiz v Ceuta | 3-1 | Cádiz (54.5%) | Correct |
| Club Brugge v Sint-Truidense | 3-2 | Club Brugge (79.6%) | Correct |
| AC Horsens v Sønderjyske Fodbold | 5-1 | Sønderjyske Fodbold (35.6%) | Wrong |
| TSG Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen | 3-0 | Bayer Leverkusen (42.8%) | Wrong |
| Crystal Palace v Newcastle United | 0-2 | Newcastle United (44.3%) | Correct |
| Hull City v Brentford | 1-1 | Brentford (59.7%) | Wrong |
| Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-0 | Liverpool (45%) | Correct |
| Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth | 0-3 | Manchester United (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Atalanta v Frosinone | 4-4 | Atalanta (51.1%) | Wrong |
| Genoa v Venezia | 1-0 | Genoa (40.7%) | Correct |
| AS Monaco v Lille | 1-1 | AS Monaco (45.4%) | Wrong |
| Motherwell v Heart of Midlothian | 0-2 | Heart of Midlothian (57.8%) | Correct |
| Palermo v Carrarese | 2-1 | Palermo (61.4%) | Correct |
| Olympiacos v Kalamata | 5-0 | Olympiacos (63.4%) | Correct |
| Lorenzo Musetti v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Taylor Fritz (56.1%) | Wrong |
| PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1-1 | PSV Eindhoven (40.8%) | Wrong |
| NEC Nijmegen v FC Groningen | 2-2 | FC Groningen (36.1%) | Wrong |
| SK Sturm Graz v SV Josko Ried | 2-2 | SK Sturm Graz (65%) | Wrong |
| Viking FK v Tromso | 3-1 | Viking FK (67.6%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Saints v Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-16 | New Orleans Saints (47.6%) | Wrong |
| Athletic Club v Getafe | 4-0 | Athletic Club (64.2%) | Correct |
| CD Sabadell v Tenerife | 1-1 | CD Sabadell (49.5%) | Wrong |
| Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi | 2-0 | Konyaspor (60.1%) | Correct |
| FC Midtjylland v Lyngby Boldklub | 3-2 | FC Midtjylland (72.9%) | Correct |
| Silkeborg IF v FC Nordsjælland | 1-1 | FC Nordsjælland (48.5%) | Wrong |
| GAIS v IFK Göteborg | 1-1 | GAIS (43.9%) | Wrong |
| Nigeria v Uganda | null-null | Uganda (76.5%) | Wrong |
| VfL Osnabruck v SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3-0 | VfL Osnabruck (46.3%) | Correct |
| Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden | 3-0 | Holstein Kiel (43.3%) | Correct |
| TSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Hannover 96 | 2-0 | Hannover 96 (41.9%) | Wrong |
| Racing Genk v Standard Liege | 2-1 | Racing Genk (63.9%) | Correct |
| Hibernian v Celtic | 1-2 | Celtic (62.5%) | Correct |
| Internazionale v Fiorentina | 2-1 | Internazionale (63.5%) | Correct |
| Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior | 1-0 | Excelsior (36.3%) | Wrong |
| Daniil Medvedev v Nikoloz Basilashvili | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (71.2%) | Correct |
| Elena Rybakina v Leylah Fernandez | null-null | Elena Rybakina (77%) | Correct |
| Gambia v Lesotho | null-null | Gambia (54.5%) | Correct |
| Mozambique v Zambia | null-null | Zambia (63.5%) | Wrong |
| India Women v Zimbabwe Women | null-null | India Women (92.4%) | Correct |
| Pakistan v England | null-null | Pakistan (65.9%) | Wrong |
| FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock | 6-0 | FC Tokyo (69.2%) | Correct |
| Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama | 2-1 | Kawasaki Frontale (46.7%) | Correct |
| Kenya v Jersey | null-null | Jersey (79.7%) | Correct |
| Denmark v Papua New Guinea | null-null | Denmark (66.5%) | Wrong |
| Urawa Red Diamonds v V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-0 | Urawa Red Diamonds (46.1%) | Correct |
| Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Ichihara-Chiba | 2-2 | Cerezo Osaka (56.2%) | Wrong |
| United Arab Emirates v Netherlands | null-null | Netherlands (70.5%) | Correct |
| Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos | 1-1 | Yokohama F. Marinos (41%) | Wrong |
| Ashlyn Krueger v Katerina Siniakova | null-null | Ashlyn Krueger (50.2%) | Wrong |
| Sydney FC v Adelaide United | 2-1 | Sydney FC (41.2%) | Correct |
| Pumas UNAM v Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Tigres UANL (42%) | Wrong |
| Portland Timbers v Charlotte FC | 3-2 | Portland Timbers (45.9%) | Correct |
| San Diego FC v Seattle Sounders FC | 2-2 | San Diego FC (39.4%) | Wrong |
| New Mexico Lobos v North Dakota State Bison | 21-16 | New Mexico Lobos (55.5%) | Correct |
| Utah Utes v Houston Cougars | 21-13 | Utah Utes (55.5%) | Correct |
| Wellington Phoenix FC v Central Coast Mariners | 2-0 | Wellington Phoenix FC (70.1%) | Correct |
| Phoenix Suns v Golden State Warriors | 131-122 | Phoenix Suns (59.3%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Detroit Red Wings | 4-1 | Detroit Red Wings (63.4%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Kraken v Minnesota Wild | 1-5 | Seattle Kraken (55.1%) | Wrong |
By competition
- NFL: 7 of 12 correct
- NBA: 4 of 8 correct
- NHL: 3 of 7 correct
- Eliteserien: 5 of 6 correct
- Ligue 1: 2 of 6 correct
- Liga MX: 3 of 5 correct
- Liga Profesional: 4 of 5 correct
- Serie A: 4 of 5 correct
- Eredivisie: 1 of 5 correct
- Premier League: 2 of 5 correct
- J1 League: 3 of 5 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 4 correct
- Primera Division: 1 of 4 correct
- Primeira Liga: 1 of 4 correct
- La Liga: 2 of 4 correct
- Belgian Pro League: 4 of 4 correct
- Greek Super League: 3 of 4 correct
- LaLiga 2: 3 of 4 correct
- Danish Superliga: 2 of 4 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 1 of 3 correct
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 2 of 3 correct
- MLS: 1 of 3 correct
- ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier Group C: 1 of 3 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 2 of 3 correct
- Bundesliga: 1 of 2 correct
- Serie B: 1 of 2 correct
- Super Lig: 1 of 2 correct
- Austrian Bundesliga: 0 of 2 correct
- Allsvenskan: 1 of 2 correct
- Scottish Premiership: 2 of 2 correct
- CWC Challenge League Group A: 1 of 2 correct
- A-League Men: 2 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 55.8% (913 of 1637). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more