How the model did: 43 of 70 right (61.4%) on 26 October 2026
70 settled matches, 43 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over F.C. København) and the honest numbers behind them.
70 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 43 of them, a 61.4% hit rate for the day against a running 56% across 1707 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: a draw 1-1 F.C. København
The model gave F.C. København 71.9% and the draw only 19%. Danish Superliga result: F.C. København 1-1 Odense Boldklub. A 19% outcome should happen about once in every 5 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Golden State Valkyries at 54.5%
Golden State Valkyries 64-55 Atlanta Dream in the WNBA. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lilli Tagger v Venus Williams | null-null | Lilli Tagger (89.2%) | Correct |
| Danka Kovinic v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Noma Noha Akugue (69.1%) | Correct |
| Polina Kudermetova v Janice Tjen | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (53.7%) | Wrong |
| Tereza Valentova v Mia Pohankova | null-null | Tereza Valentova (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Naomi Osaka v Jasmine Paolini | null-null | Naomi Osaka (68.2%) | Correct |
| Antonia Ruzic v Claire Liu | null-null | Claire Liu (51.2%) | Correct |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (72.1%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Himeno Sakatsume | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (77.6%) | Correct |
| Dayana Yastremska v Katie Volynets | null-null | Katie Volynets (58.3%) | Wrong |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Nikola Bartunkova | null-null | Nikola Bartunkova (67.2%) | Wrong |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (65.7%) | Correct |
| Diane Parry v Cristina Bucsa | null-null | Diane Parry (55.3%) | Wrong |
| Yulia Putintseva v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (55.8%) | Wrong |
| Simona Waltert v Jil Teichmann | null-null | Jil Teichmann (57.2%) | Correct |
| Anastasia Zakharova v Magda Linette | null-null | Magda Linette (51.9%) | Correct |
| Kaitlin Quevedo v Sofia Kenin | null-null | Kaitlin Quevedo (68.5%) | Correct |
| Ann Li v Ekaterina Alexandrova | null-null | Ann Li (52.6%) | Wrong |
| Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors | 114-134 | Denver Nuggets (61.3%) | Wrong |
| Maya Joint v Sorana Cirstea | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (69.7%) | Wrong |
| Edmonton Oilers v Detroit Red Wings | 3-4 | Edmonton Oilers (64.8%) | Wrong |
| Independiente Santa Fe v Atlético Bucaramanga | 2-1 | Independiente Santa Fe (57%) | Correct |
| Utah Jazz v Memphis Grizzlies | 105-110 | Utah Jazz (56.6%) | Wrong |
| Houston Rockets v Atlanta Hawks | 120-110 | Houston Rockets (58.8%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Toronto Maple Leafs | 5-2 | Toronto Maple Leafs (62.8%) | Wrong |
| Instituto (Córdoba) v Deportivo Riestra | 1-0 | Instituto (Córdoba) (43%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys | 21-38 | Philadelphia Eagles (55.8%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Valkyries v Atlanta Dream | 64-55 | Golden State Valkyries (54.5%) | Correct |
| Milwaukee Bucks v Indiana Pacers | 110-102 | Milwaukee Bucks (61.1%) | Correct |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v Phoenix Suns | 125-114 | Oklahoma City Thunder (61.4%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Rays v Milwaukee Brewers | 1-10 | Tampa Bay Rays (50.6%) | Wrong |
| Boston Celtics v Chicago Bulls | 134-99 | Boston Celtics (63.2%) | Correct |
| Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks | 109-113 | Miami Heat (61.7%) | Wrong |
| Flamengo v Atlético-MG | 3-2 | Flamengo (72.5%) | Correct |
| Jaguares de Córdoba v Llaneros FC | 1-0 | Llaneros FC (37.3%) | Wrong |
| Charlotte Hornets v Washington Wizards | 110-103 | Charlotte Hornets (64.5%) | Correct |
| Cleveland Cavaliers v Minnesota Timberwolves | 127-125 | Cleveland Cavaliers (58.1%) | Correct |
| New York Rangers v Los Angeles Kings | 3-6 | New York Rangers (70.6%) | Wrong |
| Coritiba v Grêmio | 0-1 | Coritiba (40.2%) | Wrong |
| Unión (Santa Fe) v Estudiantes de La Plata | 3-1 | Estudiantes de La Plata (38.6%) | Wrong |
| Universidad de Chile v Everton CD | 4-1 | Universidad de Chile (55.2%) | Correct |
| Sevilla v Osasuna | 2-0 | Sevilla (48.5%) | Correct |
| Walsall v Salford City | 2-4 | Salford City (54%) | Correct |
| Dominic Stricker v Alexander Bublik | null-null | Alexander Bublik (80.9%) | Correct |
| Boulogne v Stade de Reims | 1-1 | Stade de Reims (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Montpellier v Red Star FC 93 | 2-1 | Montpellier (49.2%) | Correct |
| Luisina Giovannini v Lucia Bronzetti | null-null | Lucia Bronzetti (60.8%) | Wrong |
| Paris Saint-Germain v Lyon | 2-0 | Paris Saint-Germain (66.1%) | Correct |
| FC Andorra v Burgos | 2-3 | FC Andorra (55.8%) | Wrong |
| Luca Van Assche v Learner Tien | null-null | Learner Tien (72.4%) | Correct |
| Santa Clara v Benfica | 1-2 | Benfica (72.1%) | Correct |
| Galatasaray v Fenerbahce | 2-1 | Galatasaray (52%) | Correct |
| F.C. København v Odense Boldklub | 1-1 | F.C. København (71.9%) | Wrong |
| Luciano Darderi v Matteo Arnaldi | null-null | Luciano Darderi (58.4%) | Correct |
| Jakub Mensik v Lukas Neumayer | null-null | Jakub Mensik (83%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fery v Jacob Fearnley | null-null | Arthur Fery (55.3%) | Correct |
| Lisa Zaar v Ayla Aksu | null-null | Ayla Aksu (75.4%) | Correct |
| Victoria Bosio v Jazmin Ortenzi | null-null | Jazmin Ortenzi (57.8%) | Correct |
| Besiktas v Istanbul Basaksehir | 2-0 | Besiktas (80%) | Correct |
| Caykur Rizespor v Trabzonspor | 3-4 | Trabzonspor (60.8%) | Correct |
| Fernanda Labrana v Gabriela Ce | null-null | Fernanda Labrana (51.9%) | Wrong |
| Holger Rune v Quentin Halys | null-null | Holger Rune (52%) | Correct |
| Tomas Machac v Alex de Minaur | null-null | Alex de Minaur (70.9%) | Correct |
| Laura Samson v Alice Tubello | null-null | Laura Samson (71.8%) | Wrong |
| Daniel Altmaier v Juan Manuel Cerundolo | null-null | Juan Manuel Cerundolo (54%) | Wrong |
| Matteo Berrettini v Tomas Martin Etcheverry | null-null | Matteo Berrettini (58.7%) | Correct |
| Valentin Vacherot v Mariano Navone | null-null | Valentin Vacherot (61.6%) | Correct |
| Harriet Dart v Tatiana Prozorova | null-null | Tatiana Prozorova (58.8%) | Wrong |
| Paula Badosa v Wang Xiyu | null-null | Paula Badosa (62.8%) | Correct |
| Alexandra Eala v Mika Stojsavljevic | null-null | Alexandra Eala (91.5%) | Correct |
| Shi Han v Alevtina Ibragimova | null-null | Shi Han (58.3%) | Correct |
By competition
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 8 of 11 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 3 of 9 correct
- NBA: 6 of 9 correct
- ATP Erste Bank Open: 6 of 6 correct
- ATP Swiss Indoors Basel: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Curitiba Open: 1 of 4 correct
- NHL: 0 of 3 correct
- Super Lig: 3 of 3 correct
- WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open: 2 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- Liga Profesional: 1 of 2 correct
- Brasileirao: 1 of 2 correct
- Ligue 2: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56% (956 of 1707). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more