How the model did: 56 of 90 right (62.2%) on 27 October 2026
90 settled matches, 56 correct picks, one real upset (Oxford United over Stockport County) and the honest numbers behind them.
90 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 56 of them, a 62.2% hit rate for the day against a running 56.3% across 1786 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: Oxford United 1-0 Stockport County
The model gave Stockport County 54.8% and Oxford United only 16.2%. League One result: Oxford United 1-0 Stockport County. A 16.2% outcome should happen about once in every 6 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Maya Joint at 54.6%
Cristina Bucsa null-null Maya Joint in the WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian | 0-0 | Heart of Midlothian (49.5%) | Wrong |
| Paula Badosa v Sinja Kraus | null-null | Paula Badosa (52.9%) | Correct |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (69%) | Correct |
| Katerina Siniakova v Lanlana Tararudee | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (60.7%) | Correct |
| Cristina Bucsa v Maya Joint | null-null | Maya Joint (54.6%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Portland Trail Blazers | 129-136 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.9%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Sharks v Buffalo Sabres | 0-2 | San Jose Sharks (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Vegas Golden Knights v Ottawa Senators | 4-1 | Vegas Golden Knights (55.8%) | Correct |
| Anaheim Ducks v Vancouver Canucks | 5-6 | Anaheim Ducks (70%) | Wrong |
| Kamilla Rakhimova v Ekaterina Alexandrova | null-null | Ekaterina Alexandrova (64.5%) | Wrong |
| Boyacá Chicó FC v Atlético Junior | 1-1 | Atlético Junior (47.4%) | Wrong |
| Utah Mammoth v Minnesota Wild | 1-3 | Utah Mammoth (51.5%) | Wrong |
| Nadia Podoroska v Alice Rame | null-null | Nadia Podoroska (76.3%) | Correct |
| Dasha Plekhanova v Miriam Bulgaru | null-null | Dasha Plekhanova (65.4%) | Wrong |
| San Antonio Spurs v Sacramento Kings | 130-103 | San Antonio Spurs (66.6%) | Correct |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Los Angeles Kings | 2-1 | Los Angeles Kings (55.9%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Stars v New Jersey Devils | 1-5 | Dallas Stars (59.3%) | Wrong |
| New York Knicks v Detroit Pistons | 111-97 | New York Knicks (56%) | Correct |
| Carolina Hurricanes v Boston Bruins | 2-1 | Carolina Hurricanes (53.1%) | Correct |
| St. Louis Blues v Montreal Canadiens | 0-2 | St. Louis Blues (51.4%) | Wrong |
| Nashville Predators v New York Islanders | 3-4 | Nashville Predators (51.4%) | Wrong |
| Winnipeg Jets v Florida Panthers | 1-5 | Winnipeg Jets (51.1%) | Wrong |
| Missouri State Bears v Sam Houston Bearkats | 24-3 | Missouri State Bears (55.5%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Rays v Milwaukee Brewers | 4-3 | Tampa Bay Rays (50.6%) | Correct |
| Boston Celtics v Brooklyn Nets | 125-124 | Boston Celtics (66.1%) | Correct |
| Cúcuta Deportivo v Águilas Doradas | 0-2 | Cúcuta Deportivo (37.5%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Columbus Blue Jackets | 3-4 | Columbus Blue Jackets (55.2%) | Correct |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers v Delaware Blue Hens | 21-35 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Victoria Rodriguez v Alicia Herrero Linana | null-null | Alicia Herrero Linana (73.2%) | Correct |
| Argentinos Juniors v Independiente Rivadavia | 1-0 | Argentinos Juniors (48.3%) | Correct |
| Carolina Alves v Julia Grabher | null-null | Julia Grabher (84.1%) | Correct |
| Tamara Zidansek v Katrina Scott | null-null | Tamara Zidansek (70.9%) | Correct |
| Valeriya Strakhova v Sofia Costoulas | null-null | Sofia Costoulas (67.2%) | Wrong |
| Flavio Cobolli v Grigor Dimitrov | null-null | Flavio Cobolli (61.6%) | Correct |
| Stan Wawrinka v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (79.6%) | Correct |
| AS Roma v Cagliari | 4-2 | AS Roma (69.3%) | Correct |
| Leicester City v Wigan Athletic | 3-0 | Leicester City (76.5%) | Correct |
| Luton Town v Doncaster Rovers | 3-1 | Luton Town (73.1%) | Correct |
| Oxford United v Stockport County | 1-0 | Stockport County (54.8%) | Wrong |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United | 1-1 | Sheffield Wednesday (46.6%) | Wrong |
| Torino v Como | 1-3 | Como (59%) | Correct |
| Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley | 4-1 | Milton Keynes Dons (70.9%) | Correct |
| Barnet v York City | 3-1 | Barnet (41.6%) | Correct |
| Maria Lourdes Carle v Laura Pigossi | null-null | Maria Lourdes Carle (62.5%) | Correct |
| Carole Monnet v Leolia Jeanjean | null-null | Leolia Jeanjean (72.2%) | Wrong |
| Ascoli v Sampdoria | 2-0 | Ascoli (70.2%) | Correct |
| Cesena v Empoli | 2-1 | Cesena (40.6%) | Correct |
| Mantova v Cremonese | 0-2 | Mantova (53.3%) | Wrong |
| Padova v Sudtirol | 2-0 | Sudtirol (36.8%) | Wrong |
| Vicenza v Modena | 1-2 | Modena (46.9%) | Correct |
| Virtus Entella v US Avellino | 1-1 | Virtus Entella (38.9%) | Wrong |
| AIK v IF Elfsborg | 2-2 | IF Elfsborg (56.1%) | Wrong |
| Benevento v Catanzaro | 1-1 | Benevento (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Fiona Ferro v Sofia Johnson | null-null | Fiona Ferro (67.6%) | Correct |
| Sassuolo v Lazio | 2-6 | Lazio (49.4%) | Correct |
| Cameron Norrie v Francisco Cerundolo | null-null | Francisco Cerundolo (63.8%) | Wrong |
| Ben Shelton v Casper Ruud | null-null | Ben Shelton (85.2%) | Correct |
| Polona Hercog v Martina Capurro Taborda | null-null | Polona Hercog (77%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Martin Landaluce | null-null | Alexander Zverev (92%) | Correct |
| Susan Bandecchi v Anastasiia Sobolieva | null-null | Susan Bandecchi (58.1%) | Correct |
| Elizabeth Mandlik v Emiliana Arango | null-null | Emiliana Arango (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Anna Blinkova v Dalma Galfi | null-null | Anna Blinkova (61.8%) | Correct |
| Alex Michelsen v Botic Van De Zandschulp | null-null | Alex Michelsen (54.1%) | Correct |
| Hubert Hurkacz v Arthur Fils | null-null | Arthur Fils (85.1%) | Correct |
| Mia Ristic v Martyna Kubka | null-null | Martyna Kubka (54.1%) | Correct |
| Karen Khachanov v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (85.4%) | Correct |
| Adrian Mannarino v Ignacio Buse | null-null | Adrian Mannarino (53.8%) | Correct |
| Julia Riera v Rebeka Masarova | null-null | Rebeka Masarova (59%) | Wrong |
| Jerome Kym v Arthur Rinderknech | null-null | Arthur Rinderknech (60.9%) | Wrong |
| Alejandro Tabilo v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (74.3%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Andrey Rublev | null-null | Tommy Paul (65.5%) | Correct |
| Jessica Pieri v Elizara Yaneva | null-null | Elizara Yaneva (57.4%) | Correct |
| Marina Bassols Ribera v Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva | null-null | Marina Bassols Ribera (57.4%) | Correct |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Zizou Bergs | null-null | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (61.6%) | Correct |
| Lilli Tagger v Venus Williams | null-null | Lilli Tagger (89.2%) | Correct |
| Danka Kovinic v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Noma Noha Akugue (69.1%) | Correct |
| Polina Kudermetova v Janice Tjen | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (53.7%) | Wrong |
| Tereza Valentova v Mia Pohankova | null-null | Tereza Valentova (57.7%) | Wrong |
| Naomi Osaka v Jasmine Paolini | null-null | Naomi Osaka (68.2%) | Correct |
| Pakistan v Sri Lanka | null-null | Pakistan (62.4%) | Wrong |
| Antonia Ruzic v Claire Liu | null-null | Claire Liu (51.2%) | Correct |
| Namibia v Ireland | null-null | Namibia (55.8%) | Correct |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (72.1%) | Correct |
| Papua New Guinea v Qatar | null-null | Qatar (54.4%) | Correct |
| Jersey v Kuwait | null-null | Jersey (71.9%) | Wrong |
| Leylah Fernandez v Himeno Sakatsume | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (77.6%) | Correct |
| Dayana Yastremska v Katie Volynets | null-null | Katie Volynets (58.3%) | Wrong |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Nikola Bartunkova | null-null | Nikola Bartunkova (67.2%) | Wrong |
| Netherlands v Oman | null-null | Netherlands (75.7%) | Correct |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (65.7%) | Correct |
By competition
- NHL: 3 of 11 correct
- WTA Queretaro Open: 5 of 9 correct
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 5 of 7 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 4 of 7 correct
- ATP Swiss Indoors Basel: 6 of 7 correct
- Serie B: 3 of 7 correct
- ATP Erste Bank Open: 5 of 6 correct
- WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open: 6 of 6 correct
- League One: 3 of 5 correct
- NBA: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Curitiba Open: 2 of 3 correct
- Serie A: 3 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 0 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 1 of 2 correct
- CWC Challenge League Group A: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.3% (1005 of 1786). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more