How the model did: 47 of 98 right (48%) on 28 October 2026
98 settled matches, 47 correct picks, one real upset (Genoa over Juventus) and the honest numbers behind them.
98 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 47 of them, a 48% hit rate for the day against a running 55.8% across 1878 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Genoa 2-0 Juventus
The model gave Juventus 62.1% and Genoa only 13.6%. Serie A result: Genoa 2-0 Juventus. A 13.6% outcome should happen about once in every 7 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Seattle Kraken at 54.7%
Seattle Kraken 5-4 Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian | 0-0 | Heart of Midlothian (49.5%) | Wrong |
| Naomi Osaka v Mia Pohankova | null-null | Naomi Osaka (75.7%) | Wrong |
| Jil Teichmann v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (57.3%) | Wrong |
| Melbourne Renegades Women v Sydney Thunder Women | null-null | Melbourne Renegades Women (55%) | Wrong |
| Leylah Fernandez v Elise Mertens | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (52.4%) | Correct |
| América v Tijuana | 1-1 | América (67%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids | 2-2 | San Jose Earthquakes (39.7%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo FC | 0-1 | Seattle Sounders FC (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC | 4-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps (62.7%) | Correct |
| LA Clippers v Los Angeles Lakers | 87-103 | LA Clippers (55%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Kraken v Toronto Maple Leafs | 5-4 | Seattle Kraken (54.7%) | Correct |
| Alycia Parks v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Maja Chwalinska (61.3%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder | 120-96 | Oklahoma City Thunder (51.5%) | Wrong |
| Internacional de Bogotá v Independiente Medellín | 3-1 | Independiente Medellín (51.9%) | Wrong |
| Utah Jazz v San Antonio Spurs | 111-117 | San Antonio Spurs (52.3%) | Correct |
| Colorado Avalanche v New Jersey Devils | 5-2 | Colorado Avalanche (52.3%) | Correct |
| Austin FC v Real Salt Lake | 1-2 | Real Salt Lake (41.4%) | Correct |
| Chicago Fire FC v Orlando City SC | 2-2 | Chicago Fire FC (58.3%) | Wrong |
| FC Dallas v Columbus Crew | 0-2 | FC Dallas (42%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City | 3-1 | Minnesota United FC (64.1%) | Correct |
| Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union | 0-0 | Nashville SC (45.2%) | Wrong |
| St. Louis CITY SC v Portland Timbers | 2-3 | St. Louis CITY SC (48.3%) | Wrong |
| Bahia v São Paulo | 3-2 | Bahia (43.3%) | Correct |
| Remo v Botafogo | 2-1 | Botafogo (43.3%) | Wrong |
| Edmonton Oilers v Calgary Flames | 4-0 | Edmonton Oilers (69%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Pelicans v Denver Nuggets | 91-104 | New Orleans Pelicans (50.6%) | Wrong |
| Chicago Bulls v New York Knicks | 127-133 | Chicago Bulls (52.2%) | Wrong |
| Milwaukee Bucks v Houston Rockets | 100-132 | Milwaukee Bucks (52.7%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Timberwolves v Golden State Warriors | 114-119 | Minnesota Timberwolves (60.2%) | Wrong |
| New Mexico State Aggies v Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 0-24 | New Mexico State Aggies (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Tampa Bay Rays v Milwaukee Brewers | 1-4 | Tampa Bay Rays (50.6%) | Wrong |
| Charlotte FC v CF Montréal | 4-0 | Charlotte FC (57.9%) | Correct |
| Inter Miami CF v FC Cincinnati | 2-2 | Inter Miami CF (60.5%) | Wrong |
| New England Revolution v Red Bull New York | 3-2 | New England Revolution (40.6%) | Correct |
| Toronto FC v D.C. United | 2-1 | Toronto FC (42.2%) | Correct |
| New York City FC v Atlanta United FC | 2-1 | New York City FC (49.7%) | Correct |
| Toronto Raptors v Orlando Magic | 129-99 | Toronto Raptors (57.7%) | Correct |
| Washington Capitals v Philadelphia Flyers | 5-2 | Washington Capitals (71.7%) | Correct |
| Selena Janicijevic v Elizabeth Mandlik | null-null | Elizabeth Mandlik (50.6%) | Correct |
| Once Caldas v Alianza FC | 1-0 | Once Caldas (53.9%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Hawks v Miami Heat | 117-129 | Atlanta Hawks (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Cleveland Cavaliers v Washington Wizards | 121-111 | Cleveland Cavaliers (66.1%) | Correct |
| Detroit Pistons v Charlotte Hornets | 97-89 | Detroit Pistons (60.9%) | Correct |
| Indiana Pacers v Philadelphia 76ers | 109-114 | Indiana Pacers (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders v Kennesaw State Owls | 28-44 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Fluminense v Internacional | 2-1 | Fluminense (46.7%) | Correct |
| Red Bull Bragantino v Chapecoense | 3-0 | Red Bull Bragantino (75.4%) | Correct |
| Santos v Palmeiras | 0-0 | Palmeiras (45.5%) | Wrong |
| Carmen Andreea Herea v Carole Monnet | null-null | Carmen Andreea Herea (58.8%) | Wrong |
| Hubert Hurkacz v Holger Rune | null-null | Hubert Hurkacz (59%) | Wrong |
| Heart of Midlothian v Rangers | 2-2 | Rangers (38.7%) | Wrong |
| Genoa v Juventus | 2-0 | Juventus (62.1%) | Wrong |
| Monza v Napoli | 1-4 | Napoli (57.9%) | Correct |
| Aberdeen v Falkirk | 0-1 | Aberdeen (57%) | Wrong |
| Celtic v Dundee United | 2-2 | Celtic (80.4%) | Wrong |
| Dundee v Kilmarnock | 3-1 | Dundee (47.9%) | Correct |
| St Johnstone v Motherwell | 2-2 | St Johnstone (40.9%) | Wrong |
| St Mirren v Hibernian | 1-1 | Hibernian (52.6%) | Wrong |
| Learner Tien v Alex de Minaur | null-null | Alex de Minaur (58.1%) | Correct |
| Carrarese v Arezzo | 2-1 | Carrarese (55.8%) | Correct |
| Juve Stabia v Hellas Verona | 0-1 | Juve Stabia (42.4%) | Wrong |
| Linda Klimovicova v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Noma Noha Akugue (55.7%) | Correct |
| Taylor Fritz v Stefanos Tsitsipas | null-null | Taylor Fritz (76.2%) | Correct |
| Pisa v Palermo | 3-3 | Palermo (38%) | Wrong |
| Degerfors IF v Västerås SK | 0-3 | Västerås SK (47.5%) | Correct |
| Halmstads BK v Malmö FF | 0-3 | Malmö FF (65.4%) | Correct |
| IF Brommapojkarna v BK Häcken | 0-0 | BK Häcken (66.5%) | Wrong |
| IFK Göteborg v Djurgården | 1-1 | Djurgården (56.6%) | Wrong |
| AC Milan v Bologna | 2-4 | AC Milan (56.3%) | Wrong |
| Parma v Udinese | 0-0 | Udinese (43.1%) | Wrong |
| Venezia v Internazionale | 0-2 | Internazionale (74.3%) | Correct |
| Gabriela Ce v Solana Sierra | null-null | Solana Sierra (72.6%) | Correct |
| Jurij Rodionov v Nikoloz Basilashvili | null-null | Nikoloz Basilashvili (70.2%) | Correct |
| Jakub Mensik v Adrian Mannarino | null-null | Jakub Mensik (61%) | Wrong |
| Gabriela Knutson v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (51.3%) | Correct |
| Elizara Yaneva v Oksana Selekhmeteva | null-null | Oksana Selekhmeteva (51.8%) | Wrong |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz v Antonia Vergara Rivera | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (73.3%) | Correct |
| Novak Djokovic v Ugo Humbert | null-null | Novak Djokovic (80%) | Correct |
| Lorenzo Musetti v Frances Tiafoe | null-null | Frances Tiafoe (54.1%) | Wrong |
| Nuno Borges v Casper Ruud | null-null | Casper Ruud (58.5%) | Wrong |
| Elsa Jacquemot v Caroline Werner | null-null | Elsa Jacquemot (56%) | Correct |
| Remy Bertola v Denis Shapovalov | null-null | Denis Shapovalov (72.8%) | Correct |
| Daniel Merida v Daniil Medvedev | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (67.7%) | Correct |
| Tallon Griekspoor v Brandon Nakashima | null-null | Brandon Nakashima (61.9%) | Wrong |
| Yannick Hanfmann v Jan-Lennard Struff | null-null | Jan-Lennard Struff (52.4%) | Correct |
| Shi Han v Dayana Yastremska | null-null | Dayana Yastremska (51.7%) | Wrong |
| Robin Montgomery v Lisa Pigato | null-null | Robin Montgomery (65.3%) | Wrong |
| Yelyzaveta Kotliar v Erika Andreeva | null-null | Erika Andreeva (54.1%) | Correct |
| Alexandra Eala v Talia Gibson | null-null | Alexandra Eala (67.3%) | Correct |
| Harriet Dart v Janice Tjen | null-null | Janice Tjen (52.1%) | Wrong |
| India Women v Zimbabwe Women | null-null | India Women (92.7%) | Correct |
| Paula Badosa v Sinja Kraus | null-null | Paula Badosa (52.9%) | Correct |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (69%) | Correct |
| Denmark v Qatar | null-null | Qatar (50.7%) | Wrong |
| Kenya v Kuwait | null-null | Kuwait (68.8%) | Correct |
| Katerina Siniakova v Lanlana Tararudee | null-null | Katerina Siniakova (60.7%) | Correct |
| Cristina Bucsa v Maya Joint | null-null | Maya Joint (54.6%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Portland Trail Blazers | 129-136 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.9%) | Wrong |
By competition
- MLS: 7 of 14 correct
- NBA: 4 of 13 correct
- Scottish Premiership: 1 of 7 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 4 of 6 correct
- ATP Swiss Indoors Basel: 4 of 6 correct
- ATP Erste Bank Open: 3 of 6 correct
- WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open: 4 of 6 correct
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 2 of 5 correct
- Brasileirao: 3 of 5 correct
- Serie A: 2 of 5 correct
- NHL: 4 of 4 correct
- Allsvenskan: 2 of 4 correct
- Serie B: 1 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 0 of 2 correct
- WTA Queretaro Open: 1 of 2 correct
- WTA Curitiba Open: 2 of 2 correct
- CWC Challenge League Group A: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 55.8% (1048 of 1878). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more