How the model did: 46 of 82 right (56.1%) on 29 October 2026
82 settled matches, 46 correct picks, one real upset (Hong Kong over England) and the honest numbers behind them.
82 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 46 of them, a 56.1% hit rate for the day against a running 56% across 1947 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Hong Kong null-null England
The model gave England 86.6% and Hong Kong only 13.4%. Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes result: Hong Kong null-null England. A 13.4% outcome should happen about once in every 7 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Seattle Kraken at 54.7%
Seattle Kraken 5-4 Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian | 0-0 | Heart of Midlothian (49.5%) | Wrong |
| Bangladesh v Sri Lanka | null-null | Sri Lanka (60.8%) | Correct |
| Hong Kong v England | null-null | England (86.6%) | Wrong |
| Mia Pohankova v Alycia Parks | null-null | Mia Pohankova (69.7%) | Correct |
| Oman v South Africa | null-null | South Africa (85.7%) | Wrong |
| Pakistan v United Arab Emirates | null-null | Pakistan (69.3%) | Wrong |
| Portland Trail Blazers v Memphis Grizzlies | 103-124 | Portland Trail Blazers (61.8%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Sharks v Vancouver Canucks | 3-2 | San Jose Sharks (66.2%) | Correct |
| Anaheim Ducks v Buffalo Sabres | 6-7 | Anaheim Ducks (53.4%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Kings v Ottawa Senators | 6-5 | Ottawa Senators (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Tamara Zidansek v Alicia Herrero Linana | null-null | Tamara Zidansek (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Bangladesh v Scotland | null-null | Scotland (51.8%) | Correct |
| Kamilla Rakhimova v Maya Joint | null-null | Maya Joint (53.1%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Nacional v Independiente Santa Fe | 2-0 | Atlético Nacional (78.4%) | Correct |
| Hong Kong v Australia | null-null | Australia (68.3%) | Correct |
| Grêmio v Athletico-PR | 2-0 | Athletico-PR (38.8%) | Wrong |
| Green Bay Packers v Carolina Panthers | 27-19 | Green Bay Packers (53.8%) | Correct |
| Diletta Cherubini v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (80.7%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Hawks v Cleveland Cavaliers | 114-111 | Atlanta Hawks (56.1%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Pelicans v Sacramento Kings | 132-120 | New Orleans Pelicans (58.6%) | Correct |
| Dallas Stars v Montreal Canadiens | 2-5 | Dallas Stars (56.2%) | Wrong |
| St. Louis Blues v Boston Bruins | 4-1 | Boston Bruins (57.8%) | Wrong |
| Nashville Predators v Washington Capitals | 3-4 | Washington Capitals (50.8%) | Correct |
| Minnesota Wild v New York Islanders | 3-4 | Minnesota Wild (59.5%) | Wrong |
| América de Cali v Fortaleza CEIF | 2-1 | América de Cali (71.5%) | Correct |
| Detroit Red Wings v Chicago Blackhawks | 4-1 | Detroit Red Wings (67.5%) | Correct |
| North Texas Mean Green v Florida Atlantic Owls | 48-41 | North Texas Mean Green (63.6%) | Correct |
| James Madison Dukes v Troy Trojans | 21-24 | Troy Trojans (80.4%) | Correct |
| Vasco da Gama v Flamengo | 1-4 | Flamengo (53.6%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Lightning v Winnipeg Jets | 6-4 | Tampa Bay Lightning (64.9%) | Correct |
| Pittsburgh Penguins v Utah Mammoth | 3-4 | Pittsburgh Penguins (50.1%) | Wrong |
| Carolina Hurricanes v Columbus Blue Jackets | 3-2 | Carolina Hurricanes (68.4%) | Correct |
| Atlético-MG v Cruzeiro | 0-1 | Cruzeiro (38%) | Correct |
| Tatjana Maria v Martina Colmegna | null-null | Tatjana Maria (74.1%) | Correct |
| Ben Shelton v Jerome Kym | null-null | Ben Shelton (79.3%) | Wrong |
| Martyna Kubka v Lisa Pigato | null-null | Lisa Pigato (50.6%) | Wrong |
| Nadia Podoroska v Miriam Bulgaru | null-null | Nadia Podoroska (74.3%) | Correct |
| Polona Hercog v Valeriya Strakhova | null-null | Polona Hercog (70.4%) | Wrong |
| Flavio Cobolli v Matteo Berrettini | null-null | Flavio Cobolli (59.6%) | Wrong |
| Fiorentina v Atalanta | 2-2 | Fiorentina (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Maria Lourdes Carle v Julia Grabher | null-null | Julia Grabher (68.3%) | Correct |
| Novak Djokovic v Jan-Lennard Struff | null-null | Novak Djokovic (76.9%) | Wrong |
| Kalmar FF v GAIS | 0-1 | Kalmar FF (48.1%) | Wrong |
| Örgryte IS v Mjällby AIF | 1-2 | Mjällby AIF (49.4%) | Correct |
| Al Nassr v Al Kholood | 5-3 | Al Nassr (84.9%) | Correct |
| Al Riyadh v Al Qadsiah | 0-6 | Al Qadsiah (78.3%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Tallon Griekspoor | null-null | Alexander Zverev (79.2%) | Correct |
| Frosinone v Lecce | 5-1 | Frosinone (51%) | Correct |
| Hammarby IF v IK Sirius | 2-0 | Hammarby IF (54%) | Correct |
| Anna Blinkova v Katarina Zavatska | null-null | Anna Blinkova (72.1%) | Correct |
| Taylor Fritz v Denis Shapovalov | null-null | Taylor Fritz (65.6%) | Correct |
| Atlanta Dream v Golden State Valkyries | 80-69 | Atlanta Dream (56.7%) | Correct |
| Daniel Altmaier v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (71.5%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fery v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (70.1%) | Wrong |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (88%) | Correct |
| Lucrezia Stefanini v Ayla Aksu | null-null | Lucrezia Stefanini (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Julia Riera v Yasmine Kabbaj | null-null | Yasmine Kabbaj (50.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Khaleej v Al Hazem | 4-2 | Al Khaleej (50.9%) | Correct |
| Susan Bandecchi v Elsa Jacquemot | null-null | Susan Bandecchi (54.9%) | Wrong |
| Alex Michelsen v Arthur Fils | null-null | Arthur Fils (63.2%) | Correct |
| Marina Bassols Ribera v Erika Andreeva | null-null | Marina Bassols Ribera (53.6%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Luciano Darderi | null-null | Tommy Paul (70.3%) | Correct |
| Cameron Norrie v Daniil Medvedev | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (75%) | Correct |
| Lilli Tagger v Magda Linette | null-null | Lilli Tagger (58.8%) | Correct |
| Valentin Vacherot v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (68.9%) | Wrong |
| Anna Bondar v Kaitlin Quevedo | null-null | Kaitlin Quevedo (52.4%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Stars Women v Hobart Hurricanes Women | null-null | Hobart Hurricanes Women (50.9%) | Wrong |
| Elena Rybakina v Yulia Putintseva | null-null | Elena Rybakina (84.5%) | Correct |
| England v Sri Lanka | null-null | England (52.4%) | Correct |
| Naomi Osaka v Mia Pohankova | null-null | Naomi Osaka (75.7%) | Wrong |
| United Arab Emirates v Oman | null-null | United Arab Emirates (53.1%) | Correct |
| Jil Teichmann v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (57.3%) | Wrong |
| Melbourne Renegades Women v Sydney Thunder Women | null-null | Melbourne Renegades Women (55%) | Wrong |
| Leylah Fernandez v Elise Mertens | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (52.4%) | Correct |
| América v Tijuana | 1-1 | América (67%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids | 2-2 | San Jose Earthquakes (39.7%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Sounders FC v Houston Dynamo FC | 0-1 | Seattle Sounders FC (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Vancouver Whitecaps v San Diego FC | 4-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps (62.7%) | Correct |
| LA Clippers v Los Angeles Lakers | 87-103 | LA Clippers (55%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Kraken v Toronto Maple Leafs | 5-4 | Seattle Kraken (54.7%) | Correct |
| Alycia Parks v Maja Chwalinska | null-null | Maja Chwalinska (61.3%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder | 120-96 | Oklahoma City Thunder (51.5%) | Wrong |
By competition
- NHL: 6 of 12 correct
- Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes: 3 of 6 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 3 of 6 correct
- ATP Swiss Indoors Basel: 3 of 6 correct
- ATP Erste Bank Open: 4 of 6 correct
- NBA: 2 of 5 correct
- WTA Queretaro Open: 3 of 5 correct
- WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open: 2 of 5 correct
- Brasileirao: 2 of 3 correct
- Allsvenskan: 2 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 3 of 3 correct
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 2 of 3 correct
- MLS: 1 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 2 correct
- Serie A: 1 of 2 correct
- WTA Curitiba Open: 1 of 2 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56% (1091 of 1947). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more