How the model did: 64 of 108 right (59.3%) on 30 October 2026
108 settled matches, 64 correct picks, one real upset (Espanyol over Villarreal) and the honest numbers behind them.
108 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 64 of them, a 59.3% hit rate for the day against a running 56.3% across 2044 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Espanyol 0-1 Villarreal
The model gave Villarreal 66.1% and Espanyol only 13%. La Liga result: Villarreal 0-1 Espanyol. A 13% outcome should happen about once in every 8 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Corinthians at 54.5%
Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol in the Brasileirao. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian | 0-0 | Heart of Midlothian (49.5%) | Wrong |
| Hong Kong v Pakistan | null-null | Pakistan (66.3%) | Correct |
| Oman v Sri Lanka | null-null | Sri Lanka (63.7%) | Wrong |
| Diana Shnaider v Mia Pohankova | null-null | Diana Shnaider (64.1%) | Correct |
| Mito Hollyhock v Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0-3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (70.1%) | Correct |
| Fagiano Okayama v FC Tokyo | 0-4 | FC Tokyo (55.3%) | Correct |
| Kyoto Sanga v Shimizu S-Pulse | 2-0 | Kyoto Sanga (47%) | Correct |
| Adelaide Strikers Women v Melbourne Stars Women | null-null | Adelaide Strikers Women (62.1%) | Correct |
| England v India | null-null | England (65.3%) | Correct |
| Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix | 0-3 | Newcastle Jets (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Alicia Herrero Linana v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (60.6%) | Correct |
| Bangladesh v South Africa | null-null | South Africa (74.5%) | Correct |
| Leylah Fernandez v Kamilla Rakhimova | null-null | Leylah Fernandez (66.4%) | Correct |
| Puebla v Pumas UNAM | 1-2 | Pumas UNAM (47.6%) | Correct |
| India v United Arab Emirates | null-null | India (67.9%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento State Hornets v Kent State Golden Flashes | 31-10 | Sacramento State Hornets (55.5%) | Correct |
| Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 120-127 | Phoenix Suns (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers | 112-95 | Golden State Warriors (53.7%) | Correct |
| Scotland v Sri Lanka | null-null | Sri Lanka (53.8%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto | 2-1 | Atlético Bucaramanga (71.3%) | Correct |
| FC Juárez v Querétaro | 3-1 | Querétaro (45%) | Wrong |
| Atlético de San Luis v Atlas | 0-1 | Atlas (40%) | Correct |
| Fiona Ferro v Elizabeth Mandlik | null-null | Fiona Ferro (70.9%) | Correct |
| Racing Club v Aldosivi | 2-1 | Racing Club (56.9%) | Correct |
| Sarmiento (Junín) v Rosario Central | 1-2 | Rosario Central (53.9%) | Correct |
| Minnesota Timberwolves v LA Clippers | 127-101 | Minnesota Timberwolves (59%) | Correct |
| Miami Heat v Indiana Pacers | 145-125 | Miami Heat (63.7%) | Correct |
| Dallas Mavericks v Houston Rockets | 116-111 | Dallas Mavericks (51%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Seattle Kraken | 6-2 | Seattle Kraken (60.4%) | Wrong |
| Brooklyn Nets v Detroit Pistons | 94-110 | Detroit Pistons (52.5%) | Correct |
| Boston Celtics v Chicago Bulls | 125-111 | Boston Celtics (63.2%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia 76ers v New York Knicks | 98-93 | Philadelphia 76ers (55.7%) | Correct |
| Toronto Raptors v Orlando Magic | 114-121 | Toronto Raptors (57.7%) | Wrong |
| UCF Knights v Baylor Bears | 9-41 | UCF Knights (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Corinthians v Mirassol | 2-0 | Corinthians (54.5%) | Correct |
| Washington Wizards v Charlotte Hornets | 95-79 | Washington Wizards (50.1%) | Correct |
| Florida Panthers v Winnipeg Jets | 5-2 | Florida Panthers (64.6%) | Correct |
| Charlotte 49ers v Tulane Green Wave | 31-38 | Tulane Green Wave (52.9%) | Correct |
| Nadia Podoroska v Carole Monnet | null-null | Nadia Podoroska (64.1%) | Wrong |
| Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Gimnasia La Plata | 1-2 | Gimnasia La Plata (56.2%) | Correct |
| Huracán v Tigre | 0-2 | Huracán (40.1%) | Wrong |
| Colo Colo v Universidad de Concepción | 6-1 | Colo Colo (74%) | Correct |
| Coquimbo Unido v Unión La Calera | 1-0 | Coquimbo Unido (57.7%) | Correct |
| Vegas Golden Knights v New Jersey Devils | 2-5 | Vegas Golden Knights (57.5%) | Wrong |
| Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares de Córdoba | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira (37.7%) | Correct |
| Alice Tubello v Jazmin Ortenzi | null-null | Jazmin Ortenzi (52.5%) | Wrong |
| Casa Pia v Sporting CP | 0-2 | Sporting CP (76.3%) | Correct |
| Tatjana Maria v Valeriya Strakhova | null-null | Tatjana Maria (83.7%) | Correct |
| Lille v Lens | 1-0 | Lens (41.6%) | Wrong |
| Villarreal v Espanyol | 0-1 | Villarreal (66.1%) | Wrong |
| Sheffield United v Wrexham | 1-0 | Wrexham (36%) | Wrong |
| Newport County v Chesterfield | 4-1 | Chesterfield (60.3%) | Wrong |
| Zulte-Waregem v Club Brugge | 2-4 | Club Brugge (74.9%) | Correct |
| SV Elversberg v Mainz | 4-1 | Mainz (47.7%) | Wrong |
| Matteo Berrettini v Alex de Minaur | null-null | Alex de Minaur (68.6%) | Correct |
| Grenoble v Dijon FCO | 1-3 | Dijon FCO (51.6%) | Correct |
| Metz v Pau | 1-3 | Metz (46.7%) | Wrong |
| Nantes v Clermont Foot | 1-1 | Nantes (77.4%) | Wrong |
| Rodez Aveyron v Dunkerque | 1-0 | Rodez Aveyron (50.6%) | Correct |
| Stade Laval v Boulogne | 1-0 | Stade Laval (38.8%) | Correct |
| Jan-Lennard Struff v Nuno Borges | null-null | Jan-Lennard Struff (51.7%) | Correct |
| Francesca Jones v Nauhany Vitoria Leme Da Silva | null-null | Francesca Jones (64.3%) | Wrong |
| Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg | 0-4 | Grazer AK (37.7%) | Wrong |
| Le Havre AC v Paris Saint-Germain | 1-5 | Paris Saint-Germain (74.9%) | Correct |
| Nice v Stade Rennais | 5-2 | Stade Rennais (39.4%) | Wrong |
| Lyngby Boldklub v Randers FC | 2-1 | Lyngby Boldklub (42.7%) | Correct |
| Bodo/Glimt v Viking FK | 3-2 | Bodo/Glimt (40.7%) | Correct |
| Al Shabab v Al Ahli | 6-1 | Al Ahli (49%) | Wrong |
| Arminia Bielefeld v TSV Eintracht Braunschweig | 3-1 | Arminia Bielefeld (49.3%) | Correct |
| Energie Cottbus v VfL Bochum | 1-2 | VfL Bochum (50.6%) | Correct |
| Jerome Kym v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (67.3%) | Correct |
| Konyaspor v Galatasaray | 0-4 | Galatasaray (69%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Arthur Fery | null-null | Alexander Zverev (79.6%) | Correct |
| Julia Riera v Solana Sierra | null-null | Solana Sierra (54.8%) | Wrong |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz v Julia Grabher | null-null | Julia Grabher (57.5%) | Correct |
| Taylor Fritz v Arthur Fils | null-null | Arthur Fils (54.4%) | Wrong |
| Elsa Jacquemot v Elizara Yaneva | null-null | Elizara Yaneva (58.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Diriyah v Neom SC | 1-2 | Al Diriyah (40.5%) | Wrong |
| Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (77.8%) | Correct |
| Anna Blinkova v Martyna Kubka | null-null | Anna Blinkova (58.9%) | Correct |
| Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot | null-null | Valentin Vacherot (50.7%) | Correct |
| Ayla Aksu v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Ayla Aksu (60.1%) | Wrong |
| Marina Bassols Ribera v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (65.2%) | Correct |
| Adrian Mannarino v Daniil Medvedev | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (72%) | Correct |
| Abha v Al Ittihad | 1-1 | Al Ittihad (74.1%) | Wrong |
| Lilli Tagger v Shi Han | null-null | Lilli Tagger (53.5%) | Correct |
| Brisbane Roar FC v Auckland FC | 1-1 | Brisbane Roar FC (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Brisbane Heat Women v Sydney Sixers Women | null-null | Sydney Sixers Women (66.9%) | Correct |
| Australia v England | null-null | England (65.1%) | Wrong |
| Alexandra Eala v Diana Shnaider | null-null | Diana Shnaider (57.1%) | Correct |
| Kaitlin Quevedo v Jil Teichmann | null-null | Kaitlin Quevedo (53.2%) | Correct |
| Namibia v Ireland | null-null | Namibia (61.9%) | Wrong |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (75.1%) | Wrong |
| Kuwait v Papua New Guinea | null-null | Kuwait (73.5%) | Correct |
| Denmark v Jersey | null-null | Jersey (68.5%) | Correct |
| India v Pakistan | null-null | India (67.8%) | Wrong |
| Bangladesh v Sri Lanka | null-null | Sri Lanka (60.8%) | Correct |
| Paula Badosa v Harriet Dart | null-null | Paula Badosa (60.1%) | Wrong |
| Hong Kong v England | null-null | England (86.6%) | Wrong |
| Mia Pohankova v Alycia Parks | null-null | Mia Pohankova (69.7%) | Correct |
| Oman v South Africa | null-null | South Africa (85.7%) | Wrong |
| Pakistan v United Arab Emirates | null-null | Pakistan (69.3%) | Wrong |
| Portland Trail Blazers v Memphis Grizzlies | 103-124 | Portland Trail Blazers (61.8%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Sharks v Vancouver Canucks | 3-2 | San Jose Sharks (66.2%) | Correct |
| Anaheim Ducks v Buffalo Sabres | 6-7 | Anaheim Ducks (53.4%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Kings v Ottawa Senators | 6-5 | Ottawa Senators (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Tamara Zidansek v Alicia Herrero Linana | null-null | Tamara Zidansek (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Bangladesh v Scotland | null-null | Scotland (51.8%) | Correct |
By competition
- Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes: 5 of 13 correct
- NBA: 8 of 11 correct
- NHL: 2 of 6 correct
- WTA Queretaro Open: 3 of 5 correct
- Ligue 2: 3 of 5 correct
- WTA Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis: 4 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Curitiba Open: 1 of 4 correct
- ATP Erste Bank Open: 4 of 4 correct
- ATP Swiss Indoors Basel: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Valle D'Aosta Ladies Open: 2 of 4 correct
- J1 League: 3 of 3 correct
- Liga MX: 2 of 3 correct
- NCAA Football: 2 of 3 correct
- Ligue 1: 1 of 3 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 0 of 3 correct
- WTA Guangzhou Open: 2 of 3 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 2 of 2 correct
- A-League Men: 0 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 2 correct
- Primera Division: 2 of 2 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 2 of 2 correct
- CWC Challenge League Group A: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.3% (1151 of 2044). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more