How the model did: 79 of 128 right (61.7%) on 1 November 2026
128 settled matches, 79 correct picks, one real upset (Falkirk over Celtic) and the honest numbers behind them.
128 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 79 of them, a 61.7% hit rate for the day against a running 57% across 2375 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: Falkirk 2-0 Celtic
The model gave Celtic 73% and Falkirk only 6.7%. Scottish Premiership result: Falkirk 2-0 Celtic. A 6.7% outcome should happen about once in every 15 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Nashville SC at 54.7%
Nashville SC 3-2 Red Bull New York in the MLS. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Liu v Tatiana Prozorova | null-null | Tatiana Prozorova (56%) | Wrong |
| Viktorija Golubic v Katie Boulter | null-null | Katie Boulter (57.6%) | Correct |
| Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo FC | 3-1 | Portland Timbers (50.9%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Toronto Raptors | 131-125 | Los Angeles Lakers (59%) | Correct |
| LAFC v Minnesota United FC | 1-3 | LAFC (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Warriors v LA Clippers | 124-112 | Golden State Warriors (56.2%) | Correct |
| Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles | 27-10 | Philadelphia Eagles (48.7%) | Wrong |
| Cruz Azul v León | 2-1 | Cruz Azul (50.2%) | Correct |
| Anaheim Ducks v Ottawa Senators | 6-3 | Ottawa Senators (53.8%) | Wrong |
| New England Revolution v Inter Miami CF | 1-2 | Inter Miami CF (43.4%) | Correct |
| Lanús v Gimnasia (Mendoza) | 1-1 | Lanús (59.8%) | Wrong |
| Independiente Medellín v Alianza FC | 2-1 | Independiente Medellín (72%) | Correct |
| Santos v Necaxa | 1-0 | Santos (46.4%) | Correct |
| New York Rangers v Edmonton Oilers | 1-4 | Edmonton Oilers (53.7%) | Correct |
| Tatjana Maria v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (51.8%) | Correct |
| Indiana Pacers v Brooklyn Nets | 90-98 | Indiana Pacers (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Atlanta United FC v Toronto FC | 3-1 | Atlanta United FC (41.1%) | Correct |
| Belgrano (Córdoba) v Barracas Central | 2-2 | Belgrano (Córdoba) (53%) | Wrong |
| Newell's Old Boys v Unión (Santa Fe) | 1-1 | Newell's Old Boys (48.5%) | Wrong |
| Nashville SC v Red Bull New York | 3-2 | Nashville SC (54.7%) | Correct |
| Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs | 28-24 | Denver Broncos (60.2%) | Correct |
| Miami Dolphins v New England Patriots | 19-24 | New England Patriots (49%) | Correct |
| Deportivo Cali v Boyacá Chicó FC | 2-0 | Deportivo Cali (88.5%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Rams v Los Angeles Chargers | 24-9 | Los Angeles Rams (53.1%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Utah Mammoth | 6-3 | Utah Mammoth (66.7%) | Wrong |
| Braga v FC Famalicao | 3-0 | Braga (55.2%) | Correct |
| Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders FC | 5-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps (54.6%) | Correct |
| Orlando Magic v Boston Celtics | 97-108 | Orlando Magic (55%) | Wrong |
| Washington Capitals v Minnesota Wild | 1-5 | Washington Capitals (51.5%) | Wrong |
| Tenerife v FC Andorra | 0-0 | Tenerife (43.4%) | Wrong |
| Athletic Club v Real Sociedad | 2-1 | Athletic Club (41.6%) | Correct |
| Juventus v Napoli | 2-0 | Juventus (40.9%) | Correct |
| Marseille v Toulouse | 2-0 | Marseille (44.7%) | Correct |
| Palermo v Vicenza | 3-1 | Palermo (70.3%) | Correct |
| Royal Charleroi SC v RAAL La Louvière | 5-2 | Royal Charleroi SC (64.6%) | Correct |
| Vålerenga v Tromso | 4-0 | Vålerenga (43.3%) | Correct |
| Académico de Viseu v Rio Ave | 2-1 | Académico de Viseu (39.9%) | Correct |
| Maritimo v Santa Clara | 0-2 | Santa Clara (47.3%) | Correct |
| Cobresal v Everton CD | 2-2 | Cobresal (44.4%) | Wrong |
| Boca Juniors v River Plate | 1-0 | Boca Juniors (37.9%) | Correct |
| Carolina Hurricanes v Winnipeg Jets | 7-0 | Carolina Hurricanes (72.8%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons | 16-0 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.1%) | Correct |
| Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens | 36-10 | Buffalo Bills (56.2%) | Correct |
| Detroit Lions v Minnesota Vikings | 19-15 | Detroit Lions (52.1%) | Correct |
| New York Jets v Las Vegas Raiders | 33-38 | New York Jets (52.1%) | Wrong |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Cleveland Browns | 27-6 | Pittsburgh Steelers (57.8%) | Correct |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Indianapolis Colts | 42-7 | Jacksonville Jaguars (57.1%) | Correct |
| Cincinnati Bengals v Tennessee Titans | 43-36 | Cincinnati Bengals (56.1%) | Correct |
| Dallas Cowboys v Arizona Cardinals | 30-33 | Dallas Cowboys (57.9%) | Wrong |
| Elche v Valencia | 0-1 | Elche (35.8%) | Wrong |
| Burgos v Castellón | 1-1 | Castellón (56.7%) | Wrong |
| Lommel SK v KAA Gent | 2-0 | KAA Gent (59.5%) | Wrong |
| Panathinaikos v AEK Athens | 2-0 | Panathinaikos (53.4%) | Correct |
| Lecce v Genoa | 1-2 | Genoa (45.7%) | Correct |
| Brøndby IF v AGF | 2-0 | Brøndby IF (52.7%) | Correct |
| PAOK v Asteras Tripoli | 2-1 | PAOK (80.7%) | Correct |
| Liverpool v Arsenal | 0-1 | Arsenal (44.5%) | Correct |
| Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburg SV | 3-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt (59.3%) | Correct |
| Lyon v Angers | 2-0 | Lyon (64.6%) | Correct |
| Paris FC v AS Monaco | 3-1 | Paris FC (37.9%) | Correct |
| Hellas Verona v Carrarese | 3-0 | Hellas Verona (63.4%) | Correct |
| Kasimpasa v Besiktas | 2-2 | Besiktas (68.6%) | Wrong |
| Panetolikos v OFI Crete | 0-1 | OFI Crete (50.9%) | Correct |
| Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna | 0-2 | Austria Vienna (69.8%) | Wrong |
| IK Start v Lillestrom | 0-1 | Lillestrom (46.4%) | Correct |
| KFUM Oslo v Hamarkameratene | 2-2 | KFUM Oslo (50%) | Wrong |
| Sarpsborg FK v Kristiansund BK | 2-4 | Sarpsborg FK (72.5%) | Wrong |
| FC Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam | 2-3 | FC Groningen (47.6%) | Wrong |
| BK Häcken v IFK Göteborg | 1-0 | BK Häcken (59.7%) | Correct |
| Västerås SK v IF Brommapojkarna | 1-0 | Västerås SK (52.9%) | Correct |
| Arouca v C.D. Nacional | 1-0 | Arouca (46.5%) | Correct |
| IF Elfsborg v Örgryte IS | 2-1 | IF Elfsborg (80.8%) | Correct |
| Universidad Católica v Universidad de Chile | 1-0 | Universidad de Chile (47.4%) | Wrong |
| Racing Santander v Real Madrid | 0-3 | Real Madrid (78.2%) | Correct |
| Ceuta v Sporting Gijón | 0-2 | Ceuta (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Sint-Truidense v OH Leuven | 1-2 | Sint-Truidense (60.2%) | Wrong |
| Levadiakos v Aris | 3-0 | Aris (46.4%) | Wrong |
| FC Nordsjælland v FC Midtjylland | 2-3 | FC Midtjylland (43.8%) | Correct |
| Huachipato v La Serena | 0-0 | La Serena (44.2%) | Wrong |
| Jiri Lehecka v Valentin Vacherot | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (54.1%) | Wrong |
| 1. FC Union Berlin v FC Cologne | 1-1 | FC Cologne (39.9%) | Wrong |
| Noma Noha Akugue v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (64.8%) | Correct |
| Alice Tubello v Julia Grabher | null-null | Julia Grabher (62.5%) | Wrong |
| Frosinone v Torino | 2-0 | Frosinone (34.8%) | Correct |
| Lazio v Cagliari | 2-1 | Lazio (62.9%) | Correct |
| Strasbourg v AJ Auxerre | 5-1 | Strasbourg (49.3%) | Correct |
| Sheffield Wednesday v Blackpool | 1-1 | Sheffield Wednesday (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Arezzo v Ascoli | 0-0 | Ascoli (68.9%) | Wrong |
| Empoli v Juve Stabia | 2-2 | Juve Stabia (44.3%) | Wrong |
| US Avellino v Pisa | 2-0 | Pisa (43.8%) | Wrong |
| Telstar v FC Utrecht | 4-2 | FC Utrecht (43.4%) | Wrong |
| Excelsior v FC Twente | 0-9 | FC Twente (63%) | Correct |
| RB Salzburg v Austria Lustenau | 5-1 | RB Salzburg (90.1%) | Correct |
| Wolfsberger v SK Sturm Graz | 1-1 | SK Sturm Graz (66.8%) | Wrong |
| SK Brann v Molde | 3-2 | Molde (46.5%) | Wrong |
| Alex de Minaur v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (76.2%) | Correct |
| Falkirk v Celtic | 2-0 | Celtic (73%) | Wrong |
| Eldense v Granada | 0-2 | Granada (37.8%) | Correct |
| Istanbul Basaksehir v Samsunspor | 5-2 | Istanbul Basaksehir (59.7%) | Correct |
| Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK | 2-0 | Trabzonspor (85.3%) | Correct |
| Odense Boldklub v Silkeborg IF | 4-1 | Odense Boldklub (54.1%) | Correct |
| Viborg FF v AC Horsens | 1-0 | Viborg FF (69.7%) | Correct |
| Djurgården v Degerfors IF | 2-1 | Djurgården (77.9%) | Correct |
| Malmö FF v Hammarby IF | 1-2 | Hammarby IF (64.4%) | Correct |
| Getafe v Sevilla | 3-1 | Sevilla (44.7%) | Wrong |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel | 1-0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth (36.5%) | Correct |
| Hannover 96 v Dynamo Dresden | 2-1 | Hannover 96 (44%) | Correct |
| St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg | 1-3 | St. Pauli (49.9%) | Wrong |
| Cercle Brugge KSV v Antwerp | 2-1 | Cercle Brugge KSV (48.2%) | Correct |
| Lions v Titans | null-null | Lions (58.5%) | Correct |
| Como v Venezia | 1-0 | Como (64.2%) | Correct |
| PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag | 1-0 | PEC Zwolle (39.1%) | Correct |
| Amed SFK v Eyupspor | 5-1 | Amed SFK (80.3%) | Correct |
| Lilli Tagger v Harriet Dart | null-null | Lilli Tagger (56.3%) | Wrong |
| Sydney Sixers Women v Hobart Hurricanes Women | null-null | Sydney Sixers Women (64.4%) | Correct |
| Dolphins v Boland | null-null | Boland (50.7%) | Correct |
| Namibia v Ireland | null-null | Namibia (53.8%) | Correct |
| Perth Glory FC v Adelaide United FC | 4-0 | Adelaide United FC (42.2%) | Wrong |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Oman v Pakistan | null-null | Pakistan (81.7%) | Correct |
| Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka | 0-0 | Machida Zelvia (49.6%) | Wrong |
| England v South Africa | null-null | England (74.2%) | Wrong |
| JEF United Ichihara-Chiba v Avispa Fukuoka | 3-0 | JEF United Ichihara-Chiba (38.3%) | Correct |
| V-Varen Nagasaki v Tokyo Verdy 1969 | 1-2 | V-Varen Nagasaki (51.6%) | Wrong |
| Sydney Thunder Women v Brisbane Heat Women | null-null | Sydney Thunder Women (72.6%) | Correct |
| Yokohama F. Marinos v Kawasaki Frontale | 4-2 | Yokohama F. Marinos (43%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners FC | 1-1 | Melbourne Victory (56.1%) | Wrong |
| Scotland v United Arab Emirates | null-null | United Arab Emirates (64.9%) | Wrong |
By competition
- NFL: 9 of 12 correct
- MLS: 5 of 6 correct
- NHL: 2 of 5 correct
- Serie A: 5 of 5 correct
- Serie B: 2 of 5 correct
- Eliteserien: 2 of 5 correct
- Allsvenskan: 5 of 5 correct
- NBA: 2 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 1 of 4 correct
- Primeira Liga: 4 of 4 correct
- LaLiga 2: 1 of 4 correct
- La Liga: 2 of 4 correct
- Ligue 1: 4 of 4 correct
- Belgian Pro League: 2 of 4 correct
- Greek Super League: 3 of 4 correct
- Danish Superliga: 4 of 4 correct
- Super Lig: 3 of 4 correct
- Eredivisie: 2 of 4 correct
- J1 League: 2 of 4 correct
- Primera Division: 0 of 3 correct
- Austrian Bundesliga: 1 of 3 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 2 of 3 correct
- Hong Kong International Cricket Sixes: 1 of 3 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 1 of 2 correct
- Liga MX: 2 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 2 correct
- Bundesliga: 1 of 2 correct
- South Africa Domestic T20/Pro20: 2 of 2 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 2 of 2 correct
- A-League Men: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 57% (1353 of 2375). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more