How the model did: 47 of 74 right (63.5%) on 2 November 2026
74 settled matches, 47 correct picks, one real upset (Las Palmas over Real Oviedo) and the honest numbers behind them.
74 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 47 of them, a 63.5% hit rate for the day against a running 57.1% across 2445 settled picks since launch. A good day by three-way standards, where even the closing market sits near 53%.
Upset of the day: Las Palmas 2-3 Real Oviedo
The model gave Real Oviedo 62.6% and Las Palmas only 15.4%. LaLiga 2 result: Real Oviedo 2-3 Las Palmas. A 15.4% outcome should happen about once in every 6 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Real Valladolid at 54.9%
Real Valladolid 4-3 Leganés in the LaLiga 2. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panna Udvardy v Robin Montgomery | null-null | Robin Montgomery (56%) | Correct |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva v Teodora Kostovic | null-null | Teodora Kostovic (55.6%) | Wrong |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Miami Heat | 138-117 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.7%) | Correct |
| Golden State Warriors v Phoenix Suns | 116-113 | Golden State Warriors (55.5%) | Correct |
| LA Clippers v Toronto Raptors | 118-125 | LA Clippers (56.5%) | Wrong |
| Denver Nuggets v Portland Trail Blazers | 110-118 | Denver Nuggets (60.1%) | Wrong |
| San Jose Sharks v Calgary Flames | 1-2 | San Jose Sharks (58.7%) | Wrong |
| Houston Rockets v Boston Celtics | 109-93 | Houston Rockets (56.6%) | Correct |
| San Antonio Spurs v Utah Jazz | 119-97 | San Antonio Spurs (66.6%) | Correct |
| Atlético Bucaramanga v Atlético Nacional | 1-1 | Atlético Nacional (48.6%) | Wrong |
| Seattle Seahawks v Chicago Bears | 17-34 | Seattle Seahawks (54.9%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v Sacramento Kings | 100-115 | Dallas Mavericks (58.6%) | Wrong |
| Memphis Grizzlies v New Orleans Pelicans | 134-135 | Memphis Grizzlies (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Timberwolves v Milwaukee Bucks | 112-100 | Minnesota Timberwolves (61.5%) | Correct |
| Chicago Blackhawks v Colorado Avalanche | 2-5 | Colorado Avalanche (66.6%) | Correct |
| Charlotte Hornets v Detroit Pistons | 91-124 | Charlotte Hornets (54%) | Wrong |
| Indiana Pacers v Atlanta Hawks | 104-108 | Indiana Pacers (50.3%) | Wrong |
| Orlando Magic v Washington Wizards | 94-103 | Orlando Magic (64.7%) | Wrong |
| Philadelphia 76ers v Chicago Bulls | 126-107 | Philadelphia 76ers (60.8%) | Correct |
| New York Knicks v Brooklyn Nets | 103-90 | New York Knicks (65.5%) | Correct |
| Atlético Tucumán v Argentinos Juniors | 1-2 | Argentinos Juniors (44.9%) | Correct |
| Independiente Rivadavia v Banfield | 3-1 | Independiente Rivadavia (63.5%) | Correct |
| Cleveland Cavaliers v Oklahoma City Thunder | 112-117 | Cleveland Cavaliers (55%) | Wrong |
| Florida Panthers v Detroit Red Wings | 3-5 | Florida Panthers (59%) | Wrong |
| Boston Bruins v Vegas Golden Knights | 3-2 | Boston Bruins (58.1%) | Correct |
| Deportes Concepcion v Palestino | 1-0 | Deportes Concepcion (38.4%) | Correct |
| Red Bull Bragantino v Santos | 2-1 | Red Bull Bragantino (47.3%) | Correct |
| Defensa y Justicia v Independiente | 1-1 | Defensa y Justicia (38.5%) | Wrong |
| Platense v Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | 2-0 | Platense (58%) | Correct |
| Águilas Doradas v Fortaleza CEIF | 1-0 | Águilas Doradas (57.8%) | Correct |
| Polona Hercog v Leyre Romero Gormaz | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (60.1%) | Correct |
| Deportes Limache v Audax Italiano | 2-0 | Deportes Limache (47.6%) | Correct |
| Ugo Humbert v Botic Van De Zandschulp | null-null | Botic Van De Zandschulp (56.5%) | Wrong |
| Benfica v Alverca | 1-0 | Benfica (78.7%) | Correct |
| Gil Vicente v Vitória de Guimaraes | 0-0 | Vitória de Guimaraes (43%) | Wrong |
| Newcastle United v Everton | 0-1 | Newcastle United (36.1%) | Wrong |
| Deportivo v Osasuna | 2-1 | Deportivo (51.1%) | Correct |
| Mallorca v Cádiz | 2-1 | Mallorca (60%) | Correct |
| Atalanta v Parma | 0-3 | Atalanta (60.5%) | Wrong |
| Lorient v Brest | 0-2 | Brest (37.3%) | Correct |
| Stade de Reims v Sochaux | 2-0 | Stade de Reims (54.4%) | Correct |
| Red Star FC 93 v AS Nancy Lorraine | 1-4 | Red Star FC 93 (44.2%) | Wrong |
| Selena Janicijevic v Solana Sierra | null-null | Solana Sierra (65.7%) | Correct |
| Denis Shapovalov v Karen Khachanov | null-null | Karen Khachanov (54.2%) | Correct |
| Sønderjyske Fodbold v F.C. København | 0-2 | F.C. København (74.2%) | Correct |
| GAIS v AIK | 2-1 | GAIS (47.4%) | Correct |
| Mjällby AIF v Kalmar FF | 0-0 | Kalmar FF (36.9%) | Wrong |
| Alex Molcan v Titouan Droguet | null-null | Alex Molcan (68.7%) | Correct |
| Sassuolo v Fiorentina | 2-4 | Fiorentina (43.6%) | Correct |
| Real Valladolid v Leganés | 4-3 | Real Valladolid (54.9%) | Correct |
| Kalamata v Iraklis | 1-1 | Kalamata (51.8%) | Wrong |
| Genclerbirligi v Alanyaspor | 5-0 | Alanyaspor (43.3%) | Wrong |
| Leolia Jeanjean v Lucia Bronzetti | null-null | Leolia Jeanjean (61.2%) | Correct |
| Atromitos v Volos NFC | 3-0 | Atromitos (55.4%) | Correct |
| Kyrian Jacquet v Tomas Machac | null-null | Tomas Machac (51.1%) | Correct |
| Real Oviedo v Las Palmas | 2-3 | Real Oviedo (62.6%) | Wrong |
| Mattia Bellucci v Lorenzo Sonego | null-null | Mattia Bellucci (54%) | Correct |
| Casper Ruud v Juan Manuel Cerundolo | null-null | Casper Ruud (62.9%) | Correct |
| Cameron Norrie v Matteo Arnaldi | null-null | Cameron Norrie (61.6%) | Correct |
| Daniel Merida v Alexander Blockx | null-null | Daniel Merida (72.4%) | Correct |
| Alejandro Tabilo v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (72.8%) | Correct |
| Luca Van Assche v Mariano Navone | null-null | Mariano Navone (54.7%) | Wrong |
| Venus Williams v Mary Stoiana | null-null | Mary Stoiana (88.8%) | Correct |
| Luciano Darderi v Rinky Hijikata | null-null | Luciano Darderi (54.2%) | Wrong |
| Ignacio Buse v Zizou Bergs | null-null | Zizou Bergs (56.9%) | Wrong |
| Lorenzo Musetti v Hubert Hurkacz | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (54.9%) | Correct |
| Carol Young Suh Lee v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (68.2%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Stars Women v Perth Scorchers Women | null-null | Perth Scorchers Women (55.2%) | Correct |
| Katie Volynets v Alexandra Shubladze | null-null | Alexandra Shubladze (52.9%) | Correct |
| Claire Liu v Tatiana Prozorova | null-null | Tatiana Prozorova (56%) | Wrong |
| Viktorija Golubic v Katie Boulter | null-null | Katie Boulter (57.6%) | Correct |
| Netherlands v Oman | null-null | Netherlands (77%) | Correct |
| Portland Timbers v Houston Dynamo FC | 3-1 | Portland Timbers (50.9%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Toronto Raptors | 131-125 | Los Angeles Lakers (59%) | Correct |
By competition
- NBA: 8 of 16 correct
- ATP Rolex Paris Masters: 9 of 13 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 4 of 5 correct
- NHL: 2 of 4 correct
- Liga Profesional: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open: 3 of 3 correct
- LaLiga 2: 2 of 3 correct
- WTA Chennai Open: 1 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- Primera Division: 2 of 2 correct
- Primeira Liga: 1 of 2 correct
- Serie A: 1 of 2 correct
- Ligue 2: 1 of 2 correct
- Allsvenskan: 1 of 2 correct
- Greek Super League: 1 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 57.1% (1397 of 2445). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more