How the model did: 54 of 100 right (54%) on 3 November 2026
100 settled matches, 54 correct picks, one real upset (a draw over Al Nassr) and the honest numbers behind them.
100 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 54 of them, a 54% hit rate for the day against a running 57% across 2545 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: a draw 0-0 Al Hazem
The model gave Al Nassr 82.6% and the draw only 14.4%. Saudi Pro League result: Al Hazem 0-0 Al Nassr. A 14.4% outcome should happen about once in every 7 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Arthur Rinderknech at 54.9%
Mattia Bellucci null-null Arthur Rinderknech in the ATP Rolex Paris Masters. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli v Al Taawoun | 0-0 | Al Ahli (71%) | Wrong |
| Al Ettifaq v Al Hilal | 0-0 | Al Hilal (80.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Faisaly v Al Diriyah | 0-0 | Al Diriyah (53.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Ittihad v Neom SC | 0-0 | Al Ittihad (48.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Hazem v Al Nassr | 0-0 | Al Nassr (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Fateh v Al Riyadh | 0-0 | Al Fateh (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Qadsiah v Al Fayha | 0-0 | Al Qadsiah (80.6%) | Wrong |
| Abha v Al Shabab | 0-0 | Al Shabab (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Kholood v Al Khaleej | 0-0 | Al Kholood (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Mattia Bellucci v Arthur Rinderknech | null-null | Arthur Rinderknech (54.9%) | Correct |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (61.8%) | Correct |
| Sofya Lansere v Kristina Novak | null-null | Sofya Lansere (51.9%) | Correct |
| Claire Liu v Katie Boulter | null-null | Katie Boulter (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Talia Gibson v Aliaksandra Sasnovich | null-null | Aliaksandra Sasnovich (57.4%) | Correct |
| Hobart Hurricanes Women v Melbourne Renegades Women | null-null | Hobart Hurricanes Women (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Leylah Fernandez v Sofia Kenin | null-null | Sofia Kenin (61.8%) | Wrong |
| Antonia Ruzic v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (64.7%) | Wrong |
| Vancouver Canucks v Anaheim Ducks | 4-5 | Anaheim Ducks (60.4%) | Correct |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | New Zealand (56.9%) | Wrong |
| Nashville Predators v Carolina Hurricanes | 4-1 | Carolina Hurricanes (58%) | Wrong |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks v Buffalo Bulls | 31-34 | Miami (OH) RedHawks (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Internacional v Coritiba | 1-0 | Internacional (60.5%) | Correct |
| New Jersey Devils v Edmonton Oilers | 4-3 | Edmonton Oilers (50.6%) | Wrong |
| Toronto Maple Leafs v Utah Mammoth | 2-3 | Toronto Maple Leafs (55.2%) | Wrong |
| Tampa Bay Lightning v Detroit Red Wings | 4-2 | Tampa Bay Lightning (58.4%) | Correct |
| Philadelphia Flyers v Minnesota Wild | 2-4 | Minnesota Wild (66.5%) | Correct |
| Pittsburgh Penguins v Vegas Golden Knights | 2-3 | Vegas Golden Knights (52.8%) | Correct |
| Washington Capitals v Dallas Stars | 5-6 | Washington Capitals (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Columbus Blue Jackets v Colorado Avalanche | 7-2 | Colorado Avalanche (59.5%) | Wrong |
| New York Rangers v St. Louis Blues | 3-1 | New York Rangers (52.7%) | Correct |
| Montreal Canadiens v Winnipeg Jets | 4-5 | Montreal Canadiens (72.3%) | Wrong |
| Akron Zips v Ohio Bobcats | 20-28 | Akron Zips (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Deportivo Pasto v Jaguares de Córdoba | 2-0 | Deportivo Pasto (43.1%) | Correct |
| Chapecoense v Mirassol | 1-2 | Mirassol (50.2%) | Correct |
| Valentina Mediorreal Arias v Julia Riera | null-null | Julia Riera (80.9%) | Correct |
| Sofia Costoulas v Marina Bassols Ribera | null-null | Marina Bassols Ribera (68.4%) | Correct |
| Deportivo Pereira v Deportes Tolima | 1-3 | Deportes Tolima (67.3%) | Correct |
| Julia Grabher v Laura Pigossi | null-null | Julia Grabher (81.4%) | Correct |
| Casper Ruud v Rafael Jodar | null-null | Rafael Jodar (62.5%) | Wrong |
| Birmingham City v Millwall | 3-0 | Birmingham City (45.7%) | Correct |
| West Bromwich Albion v Southampton | 1-1 | West Bromwich Albion (37.5%) | Wrong |
| Atlético Madrid v Bayern Munich | 0-2 | Bayern Munich (51.7%) | Correct |
| Barcelona v Aston Villa | 3-0 | Barcelona (87.5%) | Correct |
| Bodo/Glimt v Lille | 0-0 | Bodo/Glimt (56.2%) | Wrong |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam v Internazionale | 0-3 | Internazionale (61.1%) | Correct |
| LASK Linz v Slovan Bratislava | 4-0 | LASK Linz (77.9%) | Correct |
| Manchester United v AS Roma | 3-2 | Manchester United (49.7%) | Correct |
| Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain | 0-6 | Paris Saint-Germain (61.3%) | Correct |
| Derby County v Norwich City | 0-4 | Norwich City (50.4%) | Correct |
| Preston North End v Sheffield United | 2-3 | Sheffield United (51.8%) | Correct |
| Queens Park Rangers v Burnley | 1-1 | Queens Park Rangers (52%) | Wrong |
| Watford v Lincoln City | 1-0 | Lincoln City (37.8%) | Wrong |
| Huddersfield Town v Luton Town | 1-1 | Huddersfield Town (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town | 0-0 | Mansfield Town (46.5%) | Wrong |
| Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic | 0-1 | Northampton Town (39.7%) | Wrong |
| Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City | 1-2 | Stoke City (39.8%) | Correct |
| Charlton Athletic v Bolton Wanderers | 0-1 | Charlton Athletic (40.2%) | Wrong |
| Portsmouth v Swansea City | 3-1 | Swansea City (40.3%) | Wrong |
| Tamara Zidansek v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (68.6%) | Correct |
| Jan-Lennard Struff v Arthur Gea | null-null | Arthur Gea (59.8%) | Wrong |
| Rebeka Masarova v Alice Tubello | null-null | Alice Tubello (57.5%) | Correct |
| Maria Lourdes Carle v Despina Papamichail | null-null | Maria Lourdes Carle (55.7%) | Wrong |
| Ben Shelton v Cameron Norrie | null-null | Ben Shelton (71.5%) | Correct |
| IK Sirius v Halmstads BK | 2-0 | IK Sirius (79.7%) | Correct |
| Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 | Galatasaray (55.7%) | Correct |
| Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP | 0-1 | Sporting CP (52.6%) | Correct |
| Sahaja Yamalapalli v Simona Waltert | null-null | Simona Waltert (68.5%) | Correct |
| Mei Yamaguchi v Zhibek Kulambayeva | null-null | Zhibek Kulambayeva (55.9%) | Correct |
| Benjamin Bonzi v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Taylor Fritz (65.8%) | Correct |
| Nadia Podoroska v Renata Zarazua | null-null | Renata Zarazua (72.9%) | Correct |
| Jazmin Ortenzi v Caroline Dolehide | null-null | Jazmin Ortenzi (60.5%) | Correct |
| Elvina Kalieva v Irene Burillo | null-null | Elvina Kalieva (65.9%) | Wrong |
| Alex Michelsen v Jiri Lehecka | null-null | Jiri Lehecka (57.1%) | Wrong |
| Tommy Paul v Holger Rune | null-null | Tommy Paul (63.7%) | Correct |
| Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Mai Hontama | null-null | Mananchaya Sawangkaew (63.3%) | Wrong |
| Li Zongyu v Ana Sofia Sanchez | null-null | Li Zongyu (62.6%) | Correct |
| Aliona Falei v Magda Linette | null-null | Magda Linette (55.5%) | Correct |
| Novak Djokovic v Valentin Vacherot | null-null | Novak Djokovic (61.4%) | Correct |
| Kaitlin Quevedo v Paula Badosa | null-null | Paula Badosa (70.8%) | Wrong |
| Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini | null-null | Brandon Nakashima (59.9%) | Wrong |
| Elsa Jacquemot v Lilli Tagger | null-null | Lilli Tagger (64%) | Correct |
| Moyuka Uchijima v Rebecca Sramkova | null-null | Rebecca Sramkova (59.6%) | Wrong |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Moise Kouame | null-null | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (76.4%) | Correct |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas v Learner Tien | null-null | Learner Tien (65.9%) | Correct |
| Alycia Parks v Alexandra Eala | null-null | Alexandra Eala (78%) | Correct |
| Harriet Dart v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (76.2%) | Correct |
| Gina Feistel v Linda Klimovicova | null-null | Linda Klimovicova (56.5%) | Wrong |
| Quentin Halys v Arthur Fery | null-null | Arthur Fery (52.5%) | Wrong |
| Arthur Rinderknech v Francisco Cerundolo | null-null | Francisco Cerundolo (61.4%) | Wrong |
| Andrey Rublev v Tomas Martin Etcheverry | null-null | Andrey Rublev (64.5%) | Wrong |
| Himeno Sakatsume v Liudmila Samsonova | null-null | Liudmila Samsonova (56.3%) | Wrong |
| Xinran Sun v Tereza Valentova | null-null | Tereza Valentova (65.2%) | Correct |
| Sorana Cirstea v Maria Timofeeva | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (60.8%) | Correct |
| Maddison Inglis v Maya Joint | null-null | Maya Joint (62.3%) | Correct |
| Linda Fruhvirtova v Weronika Falkowska | null-null | Weronika Falkowska (55.9%) | Correct |
| Jeline Vandromme v Kyoka Okamura | null-null | Kyoka Okamura (56%) | Wrong |
| Anastasia Zakharova v Polina Iatcenko | null-null | Anastasia Zakharova (52.4%) | Correct |
| Dayana Yastremska v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (52.5%) | Correct |
| Talia Gibson v Oleksandra Oliynykova | null-null | Talia Gibson (60.3%) | Correct |
| Panna Udvardy v Robin Montgomery | null-null | Robin Montgomery (56%) | Correct |
By competition
- ATP Rolex Paris Masters: 7 of 14 correct
- WTA Chennai Open: 9 of 12 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 7 of 12 correct
- NHL: 5 of 11 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 0 of 9 correct
- WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open: 7 of 9 correct
- Championship: 4 of 9 correct
- Champions League: 8 of 9 correct
- WTA Angola Ladies Open: 2 of 3 correct
- NCAA Football: 0 of 2 correct
- Brasileirao: 2 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 2 of 2 correct
- League One: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 57% (1450 of 2545). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more