How the model did: 45 of 91 right (49.5%) on 4 November 2026
91 settled matches, 45 correct picks, one real upset (Fenerbahce over Liverpool) and the honest numbers behind them.
91 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 45 of them, a 49.5% hit rate for the day against a running 56.9% across 2619 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Fenerbahce 3-2 Liverpool
The model gave Liverpool 69% and Fenerbahce only 9.2%. Champions League result: Fenerbahce 3-2 Liverpool. A 9.2% outcome should happen about once in every 11 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Arthur Rinderknech at 54.9%
Mattia Bellucci null-null Arthur Rinderknech in the ATP Rolex Paris Masters. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Andorra v Mallorca | 0-0 | Mallorca (51%) | Wrong |
| Granada v Tenerife | 0-0 | Granada (49.7%) | Wrong |
| Al Ahli v Al Taawoun | 0-0 | Al Ahli (71%) | Wrong |
| Al Ettifaq v Al Hilal | 0-0 | Al Hilal (80.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Faisaly v Al Diriyah | 0-0 | Al Diriyah (53.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Ittihad v Neom SC | 0-0 | Al Ittihad (48.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Hazem v Al Nassr | 0-0 | Al Nassr (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Fateh v Al Riyadh | 0-0 | Al Fateh (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Qadsiah v Al Fayha | 0-0 | Al Qadsiah (80.6%) | Wrong |
| Abha v Al Shabab | 0-0 | Al Shabab (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Kholood v Al Khaleej | 0-0 | Al Kholood (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Wang Xinyu v Antonia Ruzic | null-null | Wang Xinyu (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Elena Pridankina v Alexandra Shubladze | null-null | Alexandra Shubladze (62.8%) | Correct |
| Adelaide Strikers Women v Brisbane Heat Women | null-null | Adelaide Strikers Women (78.1%) | Wrong |
| LA Clippers v Miami Heat | 116-117 | LA Clippers (57.2%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento Kings v Los Angeles Lakers | 103-116 | Los Angeles Lakers (50.4%) | Correct |
| Seattle Kraken v Calgary Flames | 2-1 | Seattle Kraken (63%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Kings v San Jose Sharks | 7-2 | Los Angeles Kings (52.4%) | Correct |
| San Antonio Spurs v Dallas Mavericks | 112-111 | San Antonio Spurs (65.6%) | Correct |
| Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors | 128-109 | Denver Nuggets (59.2%) | Correct |
| Phoenix Suns v Portland Trail Blazers | 119-132 | Phoenix Suns (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Millonarios v América de Cali | 0-0 | Millonarios (64.4%) | Wrong |
| Houston Rockets v Minnesota Timberwolves | 107-117 | Houston Rockets (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Memphis Grizzlies v Indiana Pacers | 103-107 | Memphis Grizzlies (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Oklahoma City Thunder v Cleveland Cavaliers | 124-116 | Oklahoma City Thunder (59.9%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Pelicans v Utah Jazz | 120-113 | New Orleans Pelicans (58.6%) | Correct |
| Botafogo v Atlético-MG | 1-0 | Botafogo (49.8%) | Correct |
| São Paulo v Corinthians | 0-0 | São Paulo (38.6%) | Wrong |
| Boston Celtics v Milwaukee Bucks | 109-102 | Boston Celtics (62.9%) | Correct |
| New York Knicks v Chicago Bulls | 135-105 | New York Knicks (62.6%) | Correct |
| Brooklyn Nets v Charlotte Hornets | 114-104 | Brooklyn Nets (51%) | Correct |
| Buffalo Sabres v Ottawa Senators | 1-2 | Buffalo Sabres (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Florida Panthers v Chicago Blackhawks | 5-3 | Florida Panthers (73%) | Correct |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles v Central Michigan Chippewas | 7-35 | Eastern Michigan Eagles (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Washington Wizards v Atlanta Hawks | 105-120 | Atlanta Hawks (50.4%) | Correct |
| Detroit Pistons v Philadelphia 76ers | 106-112 | Detroit Pistons (60.6%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento State Hornets v Toledo Rockets | 17-20 | Sacramento State Hornets (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Massachusetts Minutemen v Ball State Cardinals | 31-30 | Massachusetts Minutemen (55.5%) | Correct |
| Cúcuta Deportivo v Independiente Santa Fe | 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe (50.8%) | Wrong |
| Athletico-PR v Vasco da Gama | 1-3 | Athletico-PR (39.2%) | Wrong |
| Flamengo v Grêmio | 3-1 | Flamengo (79.2%) | Correct |
| Jazmin Ortenzi v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (76.7%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fils v Tomas Machac | null-null | Arthur Fils (71.9%) | Correct |
| Bristol City v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers (49.9%) | Correct |
| Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis | 2-1 | Borussia Dortmund (71.7%) | Correct |
| FC Porto v Napoli | 4-1 | FC Porto (54.5%) | Correct |
| Lens v Como | 1-9 | Como (56.2%) | Correct |
| PSV Eindhoven v Club Brugge | 1-2 | PSV Eindhoven (54.1%) | Wrong |
| RB Leipzig v Manchester City | 2-3 | Manchester City (67.2%) | Correct |
| Slavia Prague v Arsenal | 1-2 | Arsenal (82.9%) | Correct |
| Viking FK v Sabah FK | 4-1 | Viking FK (72.3%) | Correct |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz v Solana Sierra | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (52%) | Correct |
| Wrexham v Middlesbrough | 2-0 | Middlesbrough (56.6%) | Wrong |
| Oxford United v Reading | 2-0 | Reading (46.3%) | Wrong |
| Cardiff City v West Ham United | 3-3 | West Ham United (49.8%) | Wrong |
| KV Kortrijk v KV Mechelen | 1-3 | KV Kortrijk (43.9%) | Wrong |
| Despina Papamichail v Renata Zarazua | null-null | Renata Zarazua (64.9%) | Correct |
| Alice Tubello v Marina Bassols Ribera | null-null | Alice Tubello (58.2%) | Correct |
| Alex Michelsen v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (84.6%) | Correct |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante v Jan-Lennard Struff | null-null | Jan-Lennard Struff (63.8%) | Correct |
| Julia Grabher v Julia Riera | null-null | Julia Grabher (62.7%) | Wrong |
| AEK Athens v Real Madrid | 2-3 | Real Madrid (83.6%) | Correct |
| Fenerbahce v Liverpool | 3-2 | Liverpool (69%) | Wrong |
| Matteo Berrettini v Ugo Humbert | null-null | Matteo Berrettini (54.1%) | Correct |
| Irene Burillo v Luisina Giovannini | null-null | Irene Burillo (51.6%) | Wrong |
| Laura Samson v Carole Monnet | null-null | Laura Samson (55.8%) | Wrong |
| Nuno Borges v Karen Khachanov | null-null | Karen Khachanov (55.5%) | Wrong |
| Leolia Jeanjean v Carolina Alves | null-null | Leolia Jeanjean (83.7%) | Correct |
| Diana Martynov v Yasmine Kabbaj | null-null | Yasmine Kabbaj (65.7%) | Correct |
| Stade Rennais v Olympiacos | 0-0 | Stade Rennais (49.1%) | Wrong |
| Alex Molcan v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Taylor Fritz (64.2%) | Correct |
| Novak Djokovic v Rinky Hijikata | null-null | Novak Djokovic (80.5%) | Wrong |
| Ignacio Buse v Daniil Medvedev | null-null | Daniil Medvedev (77.5%) | Wrong |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry v Alex de Minaur | null-null | Alex de Minaur (80%) | Wrong |
| Janice Tjen v Joanna Garland | null-null | Janice Tjen (52.4%) | Correct |
| Alexander Zverev v Lorenzo Musetti | null-null | Alexander Zverev (66.2%) | Wrong |
| Isabella Shinikova v Gina Feistel | null-null | Gina Feistel (60.6%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Daniel Merida | null-null | Tommy Paul (64.2%) | Correct |
| Luca Van Assche v Learner Tien | null-null | Learner Tien (71.6%) | Wrong |
| Maya Joint v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (55.7%) | Correct |
| Quentin Halys v Frances Tiafoe | null-null | Frances Tiafoe (67.1%) | Wrong |
| Mattia Bellucci v Arthur Rinderknech | null-null | Arthur Rinderknech (54.9%) | Correct |
| Oksana Selekhmeteva v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (61.8%) | Correct |
| Robin Montgomery v Jeline Vandromme | null-null | Robin Montgomery (60.3%) | Correct |
| Sofya Lansere v Kristina Novak | null-null | Sofya Lansere (51.9%) | Correct |
| Claire Liu v Katie Boulter | null-null | Katie Boulter (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Talia Gibson v Aliaksandra Sasnovich | null-null | Aliaksandra Sasnovich (57.4%) | Correct |
| Hobart Hurricanes Women v Melbourne Renegades Women | null-null | Hobart Hurricanes Women (50.5%) | Wrong |
| Leylah Fernandez v Sofia Kenin | null-null | Sofia Kenin (61.8%) | Wrong |
| Antonia Ruzic v Alina Charaeva | null-null | Alina Charaeva (64.7%) | Wrong |
| United Arab Emirates v Oman | null-null | United Arab Emirates (65.9%) | Correct |
By competition
- NBA: 9 of 14 correct
- ATP Rolex Paris Masters: 7 of 14 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 0 of 9 correct
- Champions League: 7 of 9 correct
- WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open: 5 of 8 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 3 of 7 correct
- NHL: 3 of 4 correct
- Brasileirao: 2 of 4 correct
- NCAA Football: 1 of 3 correct
- Championship: 1 of 3 correct
- WTA Angola Ladies Open: 3 of 3 correct
- WTA Chennai Open: 3 of 3 correct
- LaLiga 2: 0 of 2 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 0 of 2 correct
- Primera A: 0 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 56.9% (1491 of 2619). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more