How the model did: 55 of 93 right (59.1%) on 5 November 2026
93 settled matches, 55 correct picks, one real upset (Lincoln Red Imps over Hajduk Split) and the honest numbers behind them.
93 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 55 of them, a 59.1% hit rate for the day against a running 57.2% across 2699 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Lincoln Red Imps 1-0 Hajduk Split
The model gave Hajduk Split 81.5% and Lincoln Red Imps only 3%. Conference League result: Lincoln Red Imps 1-0 Hajduk Split. A 3% outcome should happen about once in every 33 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Leyre Romero Gormaz at 54.9%
Carole Monnet null-null Leyre Romero Gormaz in the WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Andorra v Mallorca | 0-0 | Mallorca (51%) | Wrong |
| Granada v Tenerife | 0-0 | Granada (49.7%) | Wrong |
| Al Ahli v Al Taawoun | 0-0 | Al Ahli (71%) | Wrong |
| Al Ettifaq v Al Hilal | 0-0 | Al Hilal (80.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Faisaly v Al Diriyah | 0-0 | Al Diriyah (53.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Ittihad v Neom SC | 0-0 | Al Ittihad (48.3%) | Wrong |
| Al Hazem v Al Nassr | 0-0 | Al Nassr (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Fateh v Al Riyadh | 0-0 | Al Fateh (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Sorana Cirstea v Alexandra Shubladze | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (66.7%) | Wrong |
| Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners FC | 4-1 | Sydney FC (51.5%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Stars Women v Sydney Sixers Women | null-null | Sydney Sixers Women (63.7%) | Correct |
| Uganda Women v Namibia Women | null-null | Uganda Women (65.2%) | Correct |
| Zeynep Sonmez v Claire Liu | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Golden State Warriors v Miami Heat | 120-100 | Golden State Warriors (56%) | Correct |
| Colorado Avalanche v Nashville Predators | 2-3 | Colorado Avalanche (58.1%) | Wrong |
| Phoenix Suns v Orlando Magic | 117-104 | Phoenix Suns (57.4%) | Correct |
| Baltimore Ravens v Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-33 | Baltimore Ravens (47.1%) | Wrong |
| Edmonton Oilers v Anaheim Ducks | 4-5 | Edmonton Oilers (64.8%) | Wrong |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles v James Madison Dukes | 23-54 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles (84.5%) | Wrong |
| Cruzeiro v Bahia | 3-2 | Cruzeiro (53.4%) | Correct |
| Florida Atlantic Owls v UTSA Roadrunners | 60-29 | Florida Atlantic Owls (55.5%) | Correct |
| New York Rangers v Philadelphia Flyers | 3-2 | New York Rangers (68.3%) | Correct |
| Pittsburgh Penguins v Boston Bruins | 2-6 | Boston Bruins (58.1%) | Correct |
| Winnipeg Jets v Vancouver Canucks | 6-2 | Winnipeg Jets (61.4%) | Correct |
| Montreal Canadiens v Utah Mammoth | 5-4 | Montreal Canadiens (57.2%) | Correct |
| Detroit Red Wings v Vegas Golden Knights | 1-2 | Vegas Golden Knights (50.8%) | Correct |
| Tampa Bay Lightning v Chicago Blackhawks | 4-1 | Tampa Bay Lightning (75.9%) | Correct |
| New Jersey Devils v St. Louis Blues | 5-4 | New Jersey Devils (60%) | Correct |
| New York Islanders v Carolina Hurricanes | 3-5 | Carolina Hurricanes (54%) | Correct |
| Columbus Blue Jackets v Dallas Stars | 2-1 | Dallas Stars (53.9%) | Wrong |
| Palmeiras v Remo | 6-1 | Palmeiras (74.9%) | Correct |
| Gimnasia La Plata v Belgrano (Córdoba) | 2-1 | Belgrano (Córdoba) (37.6%) | Wrong |
| Leolia Jeanjean v Alice Tubello | null-null | Alice Tubello (51%) | Correct |
| AZ Alkmaar v Juventus | 1-2 | Juventus (52.4%) | Correct |
| Bayer Leverkusen v Marseille | 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen (82.4%) | Wrong |
| Benfica v Lech Poznan | 3-1 | Benfica (82.5%) | Correct |
| Celta Vigo v Union St.-Gilloise | 1-2 | Union St.-Gilloise (64.5%) | Correct |
| Celtic v Besiktas | 3-2 | Besiktas (56.9%) | Wrong |
| Hapoel Be'er v OFI Crete | 0-2 | Hapoel Be'er (48.2%) | Wrong |
| SK Sturm Graz v NK Celje | 2-3 | SK Sturm Graz (67.9%) | Wrong |
| Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb | 0-2 | Sunderland (67.2%) | Wrong |
| Torreense v Ararat-Armenia | 3-2 | Torreense (65.1%) | Correct |
| AS Monaco v FC Nordsjælland | 2-0 | AS Monaco (72.1%) | Correct |
| CSU Craiova v Egnatia | 2-0 | CSU Craiova (82.1%) | Correct |
| F.C. København v Iberia 1999 | 2-1 | F.C. København (90.8%) | Correct |
| FC Lugano v Kauno Zalgiris | 3-0 | FC Lugano (71.5%) | Correct |
| FC Twente v Pafos | 3-1 | FC Twente (77.3%) | Correct |
| Getafe v Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-1 | Brighton & Hove Albion (71.8%) | Correct |
| Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia | 2-1 | Panathinaikos (65.5%) | Correct |
| Riga FC v Jablonec | 1-1 | Riga FC (37.9%) | Wrong |
| Sint-Truidense v SK Brann | 1-1 | Sint-Truidense (43.3%) | Wrong |
| Jan-Lennard Struff v Casper Ruud | null-null | Casper Ruud (51.7%) | Correct |
| Luisina Giovannini v Bianca Andreescu | null-null | Bianca Andreescu (77.3%) | Correct |
| Arthur Fils v Taylor Fritz | null-null | Arthur Fils (51.2%) | Wrong |
| Aldosivi v River Plate | 0-2 | River Plate (69%) | Correct |
| AC Milan v Ferencvaros | 0-2 | AC Milan (82.7%) | Wrong |
| Anderlecht v RB Salzburg | 2-0 | Anderlecht (46.9%) | Correct |
| Crystal Palace v TSG Hoffenheim | 1-1 | Crystal Palace (53.1%) | Wrong |
| Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia Bialystok | 1-0 | Levski Sofia (52.7%) | Correct |
| Lillestrom v Viktoria Plzen | 0-1 | Viktoria Plzen (53.6%) | Correct |
| NEC Nijmegen v Omonia Nicosia | 3-1 | NEC Nijmegen (68.5%) | Correct |
| Real Sociedad v Lyon | 1-1 | Real Sociedad (56.7%) | Wrong |
| Sparta Prague v AFC Bournemouth | 1-3 | AFC Bournemouth (67.1%) | Correct |
| AGF v Braga | 0-0 | Braga (62.9%) | Wrong |
| Atalanta v Kairat Almaty | 1-1 | Atalanta (91.8%) | Wrong |
| KuPS Kuopio v KAA Gent | 0-0 | KAA Gent (66.1%) | Wrong |
| Lincoln Red Imps v Hajduk Split | 1-0 | Hajduk Split (81.5%) | Wrong |
| Mjällby AIF v Borac Banja Luka | 2-0 | Mjällby AIF (35.8%) | Correct |
| Trabzonspor v SC Freiburg | 0-1 | SC Freiburg (33.7%) | Correct |
| FC Midtjylland v Ajax Amsterdam | 1-6 | Ajax Amsterdam (48.3%) | Correct |
| FC Thun v Heart of Midlothian | 3-1 | FC Thun (39.9%) | Correct |
| Red Star Belgrade v Inter D'Escaldes | 2-1 | Red Star Belgrade (93.2%) | Correct |
| Al Qadsiah v Al Fayha | 0-0 | Al Qadsiah (80.6%) | Wrong |
| Julia Riera v Renata Zarazua | null-null | Renata Zarazua (51.3%) | Wrong |
| Carole Monnet v Leyre Romero Gormaz | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (54.9%) | Correct |
| Nuno Borges v Ignacio Buse | null-null | Nuno Borges (54.3%) | Correct |
| Abha v Al Shabab | 0-0 | Al Shabab (59.2%) | Wrong |
| Lorenzo Musetti v Luca Van Assche | null-null | Lorenzo Musetti (76.6%) | Wrong |
| Rinky Hijikata v Tomas Martin Etcheverry | null-null | Rinky Hijikata (56%) | Correct |
| Al Kholood v Al Khaleej | 0-0 | Al Kholood (43.6%) | Wrong |
| Sorana Cirstea v Mary Stoiana | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (67.7%) | Correct |
| Ben Shelton v Arthur Rinderknech | null-null | Ben Shelton (71.5%) | Correct |
| Simona Waltert v Lucrezia Stefanini | null-null | Lucrezia Stefanini (59.8%) | Correct |
| Justina Mikulskyte v Tiphanie Lemaitre | null-null | Justina Mikulskyte (56.7%) | Correct |
| Tereza Valentova v Alexandra Eala | null-null | Alexandra Eala (61%) | Correct |
| Tommy Paul v Quentin Halys | null-null | Tommy Paul (67.2%) | Correct |
| Moyuka Uchijima v Magda Linette | null-null | Magda Linette (58.7%) | Correct |
| Mai Hontama v Zhibek Kulambayeva | null-null | Mai Hontama (54.4%) | Correct |
| Anna Blinkova v Li Zongyu | null-null | Anna Blinkova (80.3%) | Correct |
| Mika Stojsavljevic v Zeynep Sonmez | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (77.8%) | Correct |
| Sydney Thunder Women v Perth Scorchers Women | null-null | Sydney Thunder Women (51.4%) | Wrong |
| Wang Xinyu v Antonia Ruzic | null-null | Wang Xinyu (52.4%) | Wrong |
| Elena Pridankina v Alexandra Shubladze | null-null | Alexandra Shubladze (62.8%) | Correct |
By competition
- Conference League: 12 of 18 correct
- Europa League: 9 of 17 correct
- NHL: 8 of 11 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 0 of 9 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 4 of 7 correct
- ATP Rolex Paris Masters: 5 of 7 correct
- WTA Reto Win Tennis Cali Open: 3 of 4 correct
- WTA Chennai Open: 3 of 3 correct
- LaLiga 2: 0 of 2 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 1 of 2 correct
- NBA: 2 of 2 correct
- NCAA Football: 1 of 2 correct
- Brasileirao: 2 of 2 correct
- Liga Profesional: 1 of 2 correct
- WTA Angola Ladies Open: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 57.2% (1545 of 2699). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more