How the model did: 46 of 92 right (50%) on 6 November 2026
92 settled matches, 46 correct picks, one real upset (Grenoble over Stade de Reims) and the honest numbers behind them.
92 of our predictions settled in the last day and the model landed 46 of them, a 50% hit rate for the day against a running 57.2% across 2778 settled picks since launch. An ordinary day for a probability model: close to the long-run average and nothing to read into either way.
Upset of the day: Grenoble 3-2 Stade de Reims
The model gave Stade de Reims 62.2% and Grenoble only 14.2%. Ligue 2 result: Grenoble 3-2 Stade de Reims. A 14.2% outcome should happen about once in every 7 such matches, so the question is whether the inputs missed something, usually team news, rather than whether the probability was wrong.
Best call: Independiente at 54.7%
Independiente 2-1 Deportivo Riestra in the Liga Profesional. This was a genuinely close call that the model leaned the right way on, exactly the kind of edge that adds up over a season.
All results
| Match | Score | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Andorra v Mallorca | 0-0 | Mallorca (51%) | Wrong |
| Granada v Tenerife | 0-0 | Granada (49.7%) | Wrong |
| Al Ahli v Al Taawoun | 0-0 | Al Ahli (71%) | Wrong |
| Al Ettifaq v Al Hilal | 0-0 | Al Hilal (80.2%) | Wrong |
| Al Faisaly v Al Diriyah | 0-0 | Al Diriyah (53.6%) | Wrong |
| Melbourne City FC v Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 2-1 | Melbourne City FC (43%) | Correct |
| Brisbane Heat Women v Hobart Hurricanes Women | null-null | Hobart Hurricanes Women (50.8%) | Wrong |
| Kashiwa Reysol v Kawasaki Frontale | 2-1 | Kashiwa Reysol (51.7%) | Correct |
| Alexandra Shubladze v Claire Liu | null-null | Alexandra Shubladze (56.4%) | Wrong |
| Avispa Fukuoka v V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-1 | V-Varen Nagasaki (40.5%) | Wrong |
| FC Tokyo v Kashima Antlers | 2-0 | FC Tokyo (52.4%) | Correct |
| Nagoya Grampus v Kyoto Sanga | 0-2 | Nagoya Grampus (43.7%) | Wrong |
| Yokohama F. Marinos v Fagiano Okayama | 1-1 | Yokohama F. Marinos (54.8%) | Wrong |
| Melbourne Renegades Women v Adelaide Strikers Women | null-null | Adelaide Strikers Women (53.7%) | Wrong |
| Shimizu S-Pulse v Tokyo Verdy 1969 | 0-1 | Shimizu S-Pulse (38.8%) | Wrong |
| Auckland FC v Wellington Phoenix | 0-0 | Auckland FC (43.2%) | Wrong |
| Western Australia v England | null-null | England (91.2%) | Correct |
| Arizona Wildcats v TCU Horned Frogs | 29-28 | Arizona Wildcats (55.5%) | Correct |
| Atlante v Santos | 0-2 | Atlante (39.2%) | Wrong |
| Sacramento Kings v San Antonio Spurs | 109-124 | San Antonio Spurs (52.3%) | Correct |
| Los Angeles Lakers v Portland Trail Blazers | 124-118 | Los Angeles Lakers (59.9%) | Correct |
| Nevada Wolf Pack v New Mexico Lobos | 3-31 | Nevada Wolf Pack (55.5%) | Wrong |
| New Zealand v India | null-null | India (50.9%) | Correct |
| Fortaleza CEIF v Independiente Medellín | 0-3 | Independiente Medellín (44.1%) | Correct |
| Banfield v Atlético Tucumán | 2-2 | Banfield (36.6%) | Wrong |
| Tigre v Sarmiento (Junín) | 1-0 | Tigre (48.5%) | Correct |
| Necaxa v Tijuana | 1-0 | Necaxa (38.9%) | Correct |
| Atlético de San Luis v FC Juárez | 0-1 | Atlético de San Luis (54.4%) | Wrong |
| Dallas Mavericks v Utah Jazz | 112-100 | Dallas Mavericks (58.6%) | Correct |
| Memphis Grizzlies v Oklahoma City Thunder | 97-128 | Oklahoma City Thunder (51.8%) | Correct |
| Milwaukee Bucks v Toronto Raptors | 107-121 | Milwaukee Bucks (54%) | Wrong |
| Minnesota Wild v San Jose Sharks | 4-1 | Minnesota Wild (70.1%) | Correct |
| Calgary Flames v Anaheim Ducks | 3-5 | Anaheim Ducks (52.4%) | Correct |
| New Orleans Pelicans v Minnesota Timberwolves | 109-115 | New Orleans Pelicans (51.7%) | Wrong |
| Illinois Fighting Illini v Nebraska Cornhuskers | 24-13 | Illinois Fighting Illini (63.6%) | Correct |
| Cleveland Cavaliers v Philadelphia 76ers | 119-95 | Cleveland Cavaliers (59%) | Correct |
| East Carolina Pirates v South Florida Bulls | 20-17 | South Florida Bulls (52.9%) | Wrong |
| Atlanta Hawks v Washington Wizards | 139-132 | Atlanta Hawks (64.9%) | Correct |
| Charlotte Hornets v Boston Celtics | 80-119 | Charlotte Hornets (54.8%) | Wrong |
| Buffalo Sabres v Columbus Blue Jackets | 5-2 | Buffalo Sabres (55.4%) | Correct |
| SMU Mustangs v Virginia Tech Hokies | 51-28 | SMU Mustangs (63.6%) | Correct |
| Boyacá Chicó FC v Internacional de Bogotá | 2-1 | Internacional de Bogotá (44.3%) | Wrong |
| Vitória v Fluminense | 0-3 | Fluminense (41.2%) | Correct |
| San Lorenzo v Platense | 0-2 | Platense (38%) | Correct |
| Unión (Santa Fe) v Vélez Sarsfield | 2-0 | Vélez Sarsfield (37.9%) | Wrong |
| Independiente v Deportivo Riestra | 2-1 | Independiente (54.7%) | Correct |
| Casper Ruud v Nuno Borges | null-null | Casper Ruud (56.9%) | Correct |
| FC Famalicao v Arouca | 1-0 | FC Famalicao (38.9%) | Correct |
| Derby County v Bolton Wanderers | 3-1 | Bolton Wanderers (40.5%) | Wrong |
| Everton v Coventry City | 3-1 | Everton (56.2%) | Correct |
| Sevilla v Alavés | 0-0 | Sevilla (52.7%) | Wrong |
| Venezia v Udinese | 2-1 | Venezia (41.7%) | Correct |
| Toulouse v Strasbourg | 3-1 | Toulouse (40.3%) | Correct |
| Standard Liege v Waasland-Beveren | 3-0 | Standard Liege (50.5%) | Correct |
| Castellón v Eibar | 0-0 | Castellón (65%) | Wrong |
| Hamburg SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3-1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach (36%) | Wrong |
| Ascoli v Palermo | 1-1 | Palermo (48.1%) | Wrong |
| Dijon FCO v Red Star FC 93 | 1-0 | Dijon FCO (45.1%) | Correct |
| Dunkerque v Guingamp | 3-0 | Guingamp (45.7%) | Wrong |
| Willem II v PEC Zwolle | 1-1 | PEC Zwolle (48.7%) | Wrong |
| Boulogne v Annecy | 3-0 | Boulogne (51.4%) | Correct |
| Montpellier v Metz | 2-3 | Montpellier (42.7%) | Wrong |
| Grenoble v Stade de Reims | 3-2 | Stade de Reims (62.2%) | Wrong |
| AS Nancy Lorraine v Sochaux | 1-0 | AS Nancy Lorraine (66.9%) | Correct |
| Taylor Fritz v Carlos Alcaraz | null-null | Carlos Alcaraz (76.7%) | Correct |
| Rapid Vienna v Wolfsberger | 6-0 | Rapid Vienna (85.7%) | Correct |
| Hammarby IF v IF Elfsborg | 0-0 | Hammarby IF (56.4%) | Wrong |
| Silkeborg IF v Lyngby Boldklub | 1-0 | Silkeborg IF (41.4%) | Correct |
| Barracas Central v Racing Club | 2-0 | Racing Club (35.7%) | Wrong |
| Al Ittihad v Neom SC | 0-0 | Al Ittihad (48.3%) | Wrong |
| TSV Eintracht Braunschweig v Energie Cottbus | 0-0 | TSV Eintracht Braunschweig (55%) | Wrong |
| Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 3-0 | Dynamo Dresden (52.6%) | Correct |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz v Julia Riera | null-null | Leyre Romero Gormaz (52.8%) | Correct |
| Gaziantep FK v Kasimpasa | 0-2 | Gaziantep FK (44.4%) | Wrong |
| Anastasia Zakharova v Lucrezia Stefanini | null-null | Lucrezia Stefanini (56%) | Wrong |
| Luca Van Assche v Rinky Hijikata | null-null | Rinky Hijikata (54.7%) | Wrong |
| Al Hazem v Al Nassr | 0-0 | Al Nassr (82.6%) | Wrong |
| Al Fateh v Al Riyadh | 0-0 | Al Fateh (45.3%) | Wrong |
| Mai Hontama v Magda Linette | null-null | Magda Linette (62.1%) | Correct |
| Justina Mikulskyte v Noma Noha Akugue | null-null | Noma Noha Akugue (68.1%) | Correct |
| Ben Shelton v Tommy Paul | null-null | Ben Shelton (50.9%) | Correct |
| Antonia Ruzic v Alexandra Eala | null-null | Alexandra Eala (72.5%) | Correct |
| Ksenia Zaytseva v Gina Feistel | null-null | Ksenia Zaytseva (61.4%) | Wrong |
| Rwanda Women v United States of America Women | null-null | Rwanda Women (55.4%) | Correct |
| Sofya Lansere v Martyna Kubka | null-null | Martyna Kubka (73.3%) | Wrong |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Maria Sakkari | null-null | Maria Sakkari (51.9%) | Correct |
| Janice Tjen v Polina Kudermetova | null-null | Polina Kudermetova (50.3%) | Wrong |
| Sorana Cirstea v Alexandra Shubladze | null-null | Sorana Cirstea (66.7%) | Wrong |
| Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners FC | 4-1 | Sydney FC (51.5%) | Correct |
| Melbourne Stars Women v Sydney Sixers Women | null-null | Sydney Sixers Women (63.7%) | Correct |
| Uganda Women v Namibia Women | null-null | Uganda Women (65.2%) | Correct |
| Zeynep Sonmez v Claire Liu | null-null | Zeynep Sonmez (52.4%) | Wrong |
By competition
- NBA: 6 of 9 correct
- Saudi Pro League: 0 of 6 correct
- J1 League: 2 of 6 correct
- Liga Profesional: 3 of 6 correct
- Ligue 2: 3 of 6 correct
- WTA Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: 2 of 5 correct
- NCAA Football: 3 of 5 correct
- ATP Rolex Paris Masters: 3 of 4 correct
- LaLiga 2: 0 of 3 correct
- A-League Men: 2 of 3 correct
- Women's Big Bash League: 1 of 3 correct
- Liga MX: 1 of 3 correct
- NHL: 3 of 3 correct
- WTA Chennai Open: 1 of 3 correct
- WTA Angola Ladies Open: 1 of 3 correct
- Primera A: 1 of 2 correct
- 2. Bundesliga: 1 of 2 correct
- Victoria Women T20 Series: 2 of 2 correct
Where the track record stands
Across every settled prediction the model is at 57.2% (1588 of 2778). The full breakdown by confidence band, with Brier score and log-loss, is on the track record page, and the methodology section there shows the same model scored against closing odds over a full season. Read more