NBA predictions: every match from 12 October to 16 October 2026

18 NBA fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 17 games the model calls close.

The Los Angeles Lakers against the Golden State Warriors carries the second-highest probability on the board this week. Our numbers place the Lakers at 61.1 per cent to win at home.

Lakers hold edge on Warriors

Los Angeles Lakers61.1%vGolden State Warriors38.9%Lakers to win · 61.1%

The Lakers enter with two wins and one loss across their last three outings. Their most recent result was a victory. The Warriors sit at two wins and two losses across their last four games and also arrive on the back of a win. Those short sequences leave little separation, yet the model still assigns the home side a clear but not overwhelming advantage.

The projection rests on the home edge and the modest difference in recent outcomes rather than any extended run of form. Both sides have mixed records in small samples, which keeps the chance for the Warriors at 38.9 per cent.

Thunder stand alone above 65 per cent

Oklahoma City Thunder are the sole side the model rates at 67.8 per cent or higher this week. They face the Indiana Pacers, who hold one win and one loss in their last two. The Thunder themselves carry two straight defeats, yet the probability still favours them strongly.

Miami Heat sit at 63.4 per cent against the Brooklyn Nets, while the Boston Celtics reach 60.1 per cent against the Charlotte Hornets. San Antonio Spurs hold 61 per cent against the Phoenix Suns. Each of these sits in the range the model treats as a clear favourite without reaching the 65 per cent threshold applied to the Thunder.

Slight favourites fill most of the card

Fourteen of the remaining fixtures fall between 52.1 per cent and 59 per cent. The model labels none of them stronger than a slight favourite. Atlanta Hawks sit at 53.6 per cent, Washington Wizards at 56.5 per cent and New York Knicks at 58.3 per cent in their respective games. Further down the list, Sacramento Kings reach only 52.1 per cent and San Antonio Spurs 52.3 per cent in another outing.

Form streaks offer little additional clarity. Several teams arrive with two wins in their last three or two losses in their last three, producing probabilities that stay close to even. The projection therefore treats most of these matches as near coin-flip territory once home advantage is applied.

Remaining fixtures

Atlanta Hawks v Oklahoma City Thunder, Hawks 53.6% Washington Wizards v Brooklyn Nets, Wizards 56.5% New York Knicks v Minnesota Timberwolves, Knicks 58.3% San Antonio Spurs v Utah Jazz, Spurs 52.3% Orlando Magic v Cleveland Cavaliers, Magic 55.9% Toronto Raptors v New York Knicks, Raptors 55.9% Oklahoma City Thunder v Indiana Pacers, Thunder 67.8% Sacramento Kings v Portland Trail Blazers, Kings 52.1% Miami Heat v Brooklyn Nets, Heat 63.4% Boston Celtics v Charlotte Hornets, Celtics 60.1% San Antonio Spurs v Phoenix Suns, Spurs 61% Dallas Mavericks v New Orleans Pelicans, Mavericks 57.4% Milwaukee Bucks v Chicago Bulls, Bucks 57.7% Minnesota Timberwolves v Detroit Pistons, Timberwolves 55.1% LA Clippers v Denver Nuggets, Clippers 54.7% New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors, Knicks 59% Houston Rockets v Oklahoma City Thunder, Rockets 55%